Distressed Reporter

Almost Close to Being Halfway There

2010-02-20T20:13:00.002-06:00

Hi there. Been awhile. And it'll be a little longer before anything new appears on this blog.

But in the near future I intend to revive Distressed Reporter, albeit in a different form. More details as they develop.

Don't Ask, DOMA Tell

2009-06-16T20:25:00.003-05:00

I intended to start this post by saying that the Obama administration's approach to gay rights was "rather pathetic." Maybe "pretty pathetic." After careful consideration, I realized neither was correct. There's no need for the modifier.

It was bad enough when apathy was the order of the day of the White House. After promising to repeal the odious Defense of Marriage Act and Don't Ask, Don't Tell policy, Obama took no steps toward fulfilling those pledges during his first months in the Oval Office. There were a few symbolic measures. But the administration did nothing to indicate that its devotion to gay rights extended beyond the kind of vague philosophical inclinations expressed by a reluctant college freshman in his first public speaking course.

If apathy was bad, outright hostility was even worse. When a gay California couple, married during the brief period after the legalization of gay marriage in that state but before the passage of Proposition 8, challenged the Defense of Marriage Act in federal court, the Obama Department of Justice filed a brief in support of DOMA. That was troublesome, but, arguably, necessary; several legal theorists have said that the administration is obligated to defend existing federal law, even while working to change it. What was not necessary were invocations of old cases arguing that states didn't need to recognize marriages between blood relatives. It goes without saying that many found those arguments and the implicated comparisons offensive.

Finally and fortunately the administration's attitude has come back to bite it. Several wealthy gay donors have withdrawn from an upcoming DNC fundraiser in protest. When you're trying to send a message to a political party, there's no better weapon than the checkbook.

Look, I'm an idealist, but I'm not that stupid. Obama doesn't support gay marriage, and I know that. I knew it during the last days of the campaign when I was slinging door knockers in Independence, Missouri. So it's impossible to be disappointed about that stance; disapppointment requires a measure of surprise.

And while it offends me that DOMA still befouls the Federal Register, again, I'm not disappointed. I fully expected Obama to slow walk any attempt to repeal DOMA. The bill was passed with substantial Democratic support and signed by a Democratic president. Repealing it would be a brutal, bruising fight, and it seems like Obama doesn't have the chin for many of those.

But there will never be a better time to move on Don't Ask, Don't Tell. The President remains deeply popular with the American people. I'd like to think that can last another eight years, but those poll numbers are going to take a hit once the administration dives into the trenches on worthy issues like health care and the budget. The White House has to take advantage of the President's popularity while it remains robust. And don't talk to me about "political capital," because that's not actually a thing. Regardless of what you've read on the standard lefty websites, the US Senate is not the Mafia. It doesn't work on a one-to-one favor swapping system.

A Gallup poll indicates that nearly 70 percent of Americans support repealing the ban on openly gay soldiers. 58 percent of conservatives agree with that. It would take some skill to frame the debate as a national security issue instead of a pure gay rights issue, but we're talking about a President who made a 28-minute speech on race into a YouTube sensation. Communication is kind of the guy's thing. The White House should show faith in his ability to convince Americans that we do not make our country safer by discharging linguists who speak Arabic.

I have faith that the President is personally a tolerant and empathetic man who treats homosexuals with the respect they deserve as human beings. But that's not enough. At some point you have to do something.

If the President is backtracking on DOMA and Don't Ask, Don't Tell because he realizes his campaign pledges were wrong and he now believes DOMA is a good bill and DADT a good policy, then I respect that. But if you're doing it 'cause you think it's gonna be too hard or you think you're gonna lose...well, God, Barack, I don't even want to know you.

Running Silent

2009-04-06T20:24:00.003-05:00

You've probably noticed that posting has been light here recently. It's been a week since my last post, but beyond that, I've been pretty lax through this new year.

I wish I had an explanation for that beyond "I don't feel like writing anything," but I really don't. I launched DR in the middle of the presidential campaign, and there was usually enough news to inspire a lengthy post every day. Hell, Sarah Palin alone could have formed the foundation of an entire blog.

Now that the campaign is over and governance is all that's in the news, I'm somewhat out of my depth. The economy is dominating the headlines, and I'm one of Joe Sheehan's infamous economically illiterate bitches. I'm similarly ill-qualified to write about international affairs, with one or two exceptions, and I've decided to forgo discussing those exceptions on this blog. And I don't want to turn this into a sports blog.

All that aside, the simple fact is, for whatever reason, I don't have fun writing to this blog any more. I had fun during the campaign. I had fun writing up Florida football games. I had fun writing about Burn Notice and the Kansas City Shakespeare Festival. But the last several times I've signed on to this "Create Post" screen, it's been work. And while God knows I have the free time to do this, what I lack right now is the inclination and desire.

I am not shutting down Distressed Reporter. I don't think I'm done with this. But, put bluntly, I just don't feel like writing anything for this site. So don't expect updates for a while. I don't know how long a while will be; I could come across a story tomorrow that pisses me off enough to drive me to blogging. It could (and likely will) be much longer than that.

Duh-Duh-Duh-Duh-Duh-Duh, Gator Bait!

2009-03-30T19:22:00.003-05:00

There have been two changes to the sidebar in recent days. The first, moving George Washington to the "Rejected By" column, was made possible in part by a marvel of the Internet Age. I was up late about a week ago, bored, surfing the internet. And I clicked over to GW's website, thinking I'd get some background on the campus.

Eventually, idle curiosity inspired me to check the online application I had filed several months ago. And, what do you know, there was a decision link on the front page of the application. A few clicks later, I moved George Washington to the rejected column.

To GW's credit, they were nice enough to go through with the old-fashioned niceties and send me a paper rejection the very next day. On lovely paper, too, I might add.

But all is not lost. I received an acceptance from the Beloved Alma Mater this afternoon. The letter indicated they would let the admitted students know later about financial aid, so I can't pick favorites yet. Still, it's going to be hard to turn down UF. Not impossible, mind you. Money talks. Gotta bling out the Lancer, you know.

This leaves just one languid institution, that being the University of Colorado. They're moving with all the celerity of an obese...well, buffalo, I suppose. I've got two different April 15 deadlines, so I'm hoping CU decides to weigh in before that date.

Center field: safe for, Jordan

2009-03-30T17:26:00.004-05:00

The Braves today traded Josh Anderson to Detroit for side-arming Double-A reliever Rudy Darrow, an intriguing 24-year-old with an impressive strikeout rate in 103 2/3 minor league innings. He'll be a useful minor league insurance policy for a bullpen filled with pitchers of questionable quality and/or questionable health.

But Darrow scarcely matters. No, what's important is that wunderkind Jordan Schafer is almost certainly guaranteed to start the season as Atlanta's everyday center fielder. And might I say: woo.

It's easy to say that the Braves have taken a big risk with this decision, but that's not really true. A risk would have been trading a productive veteran center fielder with one year left on a reasonable contract in order to open the position for Schafer. What the Braves did was trade a projected fourth outfielder (Josh Anderson) and pass over an amusing yet severely limited player (Gregor Blanco) so that one of their best prospects could play.

The Braves won't be able to suppress Schafer's service time clock by keeping him at Triple-A for a month. It's possible Schafer's confidence could take a blow if he hits .220 with no power and plenty of strikeouts for a month and the Braves have to demote him. And you always risk something when you skip a player straight from Double-A.

Still, the Braves have shown they don't much care about or for Triple-A seasoning when it comes to their top position player prospects. Jeff Francoeur and Brian McCann were both promoted straight from Double-A in the middle of the 2005 season, meaning those two didn't even get full Double-A experience. Schafer was solid if not extraordinary in just 84 games at Mississippi last season, so Frank Wren and Co. obviously have a lot of faith in him.

And beyond all that, this is the fun move, the exciting move. You can't base your roster off that criteria, of course, but as a fan it's nice to have something new and shiny to watch every game. The Braves are losing 12-4 in the eighth inning? I could leave, but Schafer's due up third. I want to see him hit. That's the effect young players can have.

As I finish this, I see in The Atlanta Journal-Constitution that Wren still won't rule out sending Schafer to Triple-A to start the season. That, of course, would make Blanco the center fielder. David O'Brien seems to think Schafer has the inside track. Suffice it to say it would be disappointing to Schafer at Triple-A Gwinnett. And I say that as a Gregor Blanco fan.

Recruiting Update

2009-03-20T15:06:00.003-05:00

I know most of you are religious readers of Distressed Reporter, and you probably have a whiteboard or something where you keep track of my grad school developments. For you, I don't need to write a post detailing said developments, since you have Blogger email and text you a notification when I edit the sidebar. But please, all visitors are as technologically advanced. And they demand details.

There has been one rejection since last we talked. Michigan evidently didn't even think enough of me to send a written rejection; I got a form email from the admissions department. This was unsurprising for a couple reasons: first, because Michigan's political science department is one of the best in the country and I wasn't exactly one of the best undergrads in this great nation. Second, because I accidentally applied to the public policy school instead. That sort of hurt my chances.

The most significant development comes out of lovely Columbia, Missouri, where the University of Missouri has invited me to come play pick-up grad school. This also wasn't terribly surprising, but their offer of an assistantship that carried with it a tuition waiver and an acceptable stipend is quite welcome.

There are some problems with Missouri, mainly that they have a small department with no professors who are primarily interested in what I want to study. But money is always good and Columbia's just a two hour drive from home.

That leaves just three schools who are yet undecided. Colorado should let me know any day now. I should be optimistic, since I am so Buff, but they're slightly better ranked than the Kansas school that accepted me, so I'm slightly pessimistic. The best part of an acceptance letter from Colorado might be that I'd have an excellent excuse to visit their lovely campus in Boulder.

George Washington should be close behind CU, but I have them down as an almost certain "no" at this point. And besides, I'm somewhat reluctant to attend a staggeringly expensive school located in a staggeringly expensive town.

Last but never least in my heart is Florida, the sentimental favorite. UF's application deadline came and went just last week, so their decision probably remains a in the somewhat distant future. Not so distant, I hope, since the deadline to accept Missouri's offer is April 15.

On Sports

2009-03-18T20:38:00.006-05:00

I was lying in bed last night, unable to fall asleep, and I thought about a woman to whom my sister had introduced me. (Don't worry, DR isn't that kind of blog.) I've met the woman, who's a med school classmate of my sister's, once or twice, and while we hit it off fairly well, it's become obvious recently that nothing's going to happen.

My sister told me once that the friend knew nothing about sports. They were at a bar with some classmates one night and the group started talking about the Chiefs' recent victory over the Raiders. After a while, the friend said, "The Raiders...wait, wait, shut up, don't tell me. I know this. The Raiders...New Jersey, right?"

Now, I don't know this woman very well, but she came off as an informed, intelligent individual in our brief interactions. And as I was lying in bed last night, I started wondering how I'd answer if this woman, or any other similarly ignorant person, asked me why I enjoyed sports so much.

There's a certain intellectual satisfaction in giving the academic answer, the "Sport reflects humanity's drive for greatness and the unattainable pursuit of perfection" response that echoes Classical Greece. But, well, The Academic Answer is also The Douchebag Answer, and I don't think I could say that with a straight face.

It would be more honest, less pretentious to shrug and say, "I don't know. I enjoy them, and the why never really comes up." But that's more a capitulation than a response, and it wouldn't satisfy our hypothetical interrogator. Beyond all that, it's not really accurate. Because thinking about it, there are specific, concrete reasons. Those reasons are just different for each sport.

There's a lot to love about baseball, of course. Strange as it sounds, though, I think what appeals to me the most is how unapologetically languid the game is. Baseball is the cool, low-maintenance girlfriend every guy dreams of having.

"You need to check your email? Don't worry about it, man. I'll be on in the background. Get back to me when you're ready."

"Need to pick up a pizza? S'all good. Go ahead, miss an inning. I've got nine of the things. Besides, statistically the odds are against them scoring. You probably won't miss much. Pujols is due up in two innings though. Be back in time for that. Oh, don't worry. I'll DVR it for you."

Baseball is also America's proudly intellectual game. Oh, sure, the scouts and the "baseball men" don't like it, but there's a rich, nerdy vein running straight through the middle of the game. And I'm not just using Bud Selig as proof. The fundamental mechanic of baseball is a combination of the mental and the physical; it's pitcher and hitter trying to out-muscle each other, sure, but they're also thinking along with each other, playing a game.

If baseball's the openly intellectual game, football's an affair that obscures its nerdiness behind a wall of blood. Huge men, impossibly huge men, running impossibly fast, collide in ways that would break a normal human being in half. They scratch and claw and desperately strive to open the space where, for brief moments, skill and athleticism can explode.

Football shocks and awes the viewer into forgetting the game's complexities. It's a smart game, but you have to work to see the dynamics. Peel back the cacophony and the Xs and Os leap into motion, like those scenes from A Beautiful Mind, only without the schizophrenia the lead actor pretends to have or the psychosis the lead actor actually has. There are blocking schemes, running schemes, passing schemes, zany schemes. Coaches devise a thousand different variations on the same rushing play. Intelligence is football's secret shame.

It goes without saying that high-level football is rife with athleticism, but we tend to see that athleticism in quick bursts. When Percy Harvin broke this play, it was like a bolt of lightning:

Blink and you miss it.

Basketball, on the other hand, is an orgy of athleticism. It's a wide open, relatively uncluttered playing area. Contact is discouraged, even penalized if you don't play for Duke. So the full range of human potential is possible on the basketball court. You can see those great moments developing. You can watch LeBron James circle the perimeter, slice through the defense and haul in an alley oop from Mo Williams. With the normal camera shot offered in most telecasts, every step of the play, every player involved, comes into view. When it's run well, basketball is a muscular ballet.

And I love the flow of a basketball game. Team A hosts Team B, and for a while they trade baskets, go back-and-forth. Then Team A slams down a dunk and stops Team B on the defensive end. Then they run down the court and drain a three. Team A's fans are getting riled up. All of a sudden, Team B can't get the ball over the half court line, and Team A is shooting like they've made three buckets in a row on NBA Jam.

This goes on for five minutes before, out of nowhere, Team B hits a three. Team A takes the ball down the court, but their shot rims out. As Team B runs its offense, the fans are still raucous, but a little less so than they were a minute ago. The aura of invincibility has been pierced. They stomp and shout, but less out of confidence and more to scare away the impending comeback.

Those are the big ones, but not the only ones. High-level volleyball plays on the human mind's capacity for pattern recognition: bump, set, spike. Bump, set, spike. So the viewer gets lulled into this sense of security, and it's pleasantly shocking when someone subverts the pattern by hitting the ball over the net in two shots instead of three. Or when a player passes up the spike for a subtle loft shot over the extended arms of a defender.

2009 Atlanta Braves Preview, Part 2: The Outfield

2009-03-15T21:47:00.005-05:00

The world community is a little pre-occupied right now. But I hope that when things settle down, when the economy is on solid footing, that the International Criminal Court gives serious consideration to hauling Frank Wren and Bobby Cox to The Hague and bringing them to account for Atlanta's 2008 outfield.

The Braves produced only 27 home runs from their outfielders last year. They had no players who could be reasonably described as "good." Only two could be reasonably described as decent. One of those, Mark Kotsay, was traded mid-season, and the other, Josh Anderson, played only 40 games. Jeff Francoeur cratered, Matt Diaz scuffled and got hurt and Gregor Blanco played like he was trying to see how well one can hit if one refuses to swing until the count is 3-2. It's hard to see how the Braves could fail to improve in 2009.

And it's in that ambitious spirit that we turn first to Frank Wren's prize outfield acquisition, Garret Anderson. The 36-year-old had a fine career with the Angels, and the Braves desperately hope he has one more goo...sol...dece...acceptable season left in his bat. Anderson's coming off a year that saw him hit .293/.325/.433. On the plus side, that would have made him the second-best full-time outfielder on the 2008 Braves. On the downside, he was roughly as good as Omar Infante, so I'm not filled with warm tinglies.

There remains some mystery as to Anderson's role. A platoon with Matt Diaz would make the most sense; if you squint really hard you can almost see an Anderson/Diaz platoon working. But Cox and Wren made some noise after the signing that Anderson wasn't a platoon player, and if forced to guess, I'd bet that Cox uses Anderson against lefties more than is wise.

The Garret Anderson of 2008, while hardly bursting with dynamism, would be an acceptable addition. But 36-year-old corner outfielders coming off sub-100 OPS+ seasons don't have bright futures. The Braves are desperately hoping that they get Anderson's last "good" season. If, instead, they missed it by a year, they'll be fighting a war with the same set of rusted knives that so spectacularly failed them in 2008.

Matt Diaz, who will back-up and/or platoon with Anderson, has at least shown in the past that his blade has some bite. After consecutive solid seasons in 2006 and 2007, Diaz's production cratered in 2008. He played two months at a .250/.270/.311 level before injuring his knee in Milwaukee. He came back for the last game of the season, but 2008 was a lost year.

Analysts have always considered Diaz a candidate for the kind of season he put up last year. This is a man who makes Francoeur look patient and disciplined. His power comes from the occasional double and the even-more-occasional home run. He's a player who relies almost exclusively on his ability to slap bad pitches through the holes in the infield.

That sounds unsustainable. Thing is, he seems to have a real knack for it, last year notwithstanding. He hit at every level in the minors. He hit for two years in Atlanta. He's a career .328/.361/.508 hitter against lefties. You can never consider Diaz a "safe" bet, but there's every reason to believe he can be a useful part of a winning team.

This brings us to Atlanta's golden child, The Wonder Boy, Delta pitch man, Jeff Francoeur. I've always said that Francoeur's the kind of player to whom you give every reasonable chance to succeed. And once he exhausts those, you give him one more. He's that talented.

Well, Francoeur's exhausted the reasonable chances. 2009 is the "one more." When you put up a 72 OPS+ as a corner outfielder, play crummy defense and contribute nothing on the base paths, you place yourself in danger of falling out of the big leagues, regardless of past success. Francoeur's 2008 was so abysmal that, by itself, it calls into question his ability to play Major League Baseball.

It wasn't surprising that Francoeur had a sub-par season; after all, he posted an 87 OPS+ in 2006. But the ubiquity of his suck was staggering. He at least managed to slug better than the league average in '06. He did nothing well in 2009 besides look handsome. He didn't even handle his too-brief demotion to the minors particularly well.

What to expect in 2009? If you'll excuse the cop-out, I like him to roughly achieve his career line of .268/.312/.434. That's crummy for a corner outfielder, but I can't summon the optimism to predict an actually productive season. Francoeur is and always has been unforgivably undisciplined. There are too many holes in his game, even as a 25-year-old. He has enough power in his bat to save him from total uselessness, but that's about all I can say for him.

Those are the three players who are guaranteed spots in the Braves' outfield. Josh Anderson is slightly below that line, but only to the extent that he's just practically guaranteed the center field job. He's had a nice run of 203 Major League at-bats, but his career minor league numbers don't sing a peppy tune. It's more than a little distressing that Atlanta's best center field option is a guy with a career minor league line of .294/.340/.378.

But Anderson has some skills. He stole 42 bases for Richmond in 2008, 40 for Round Rock in 2007, 43 for Corpus Christi in 2006, 50 at the same stop the previous year. And he's swiped bases at an 80 percent success rate. He's been a good contact hitter at just about every stop. He has, in short, all the skills needed in a hyper-competent fourth outfielder. What he does not have is the skillset to be a starting center fielder on a championship-caliber team.

But that's going to be his job, because the second-best option is more of a curiosity than a real option. I like Gregor Blanco. I think he's a cool player. It takes an awful lot of pluck to draw 74 walks in 430 at-bats and post a .366 OBP while slugging only .309. It's really kind of an affirmation of the human spirit, for a given definition of "affirmation" and "of." I think he can be a useful bench player.

The problem is that he doesn't have the profile you'd expect and want from a player with his utter lack of power. If you're going to hit one home run in 430 at-bats, you need to hit more than .251. You can't strike out 99 times. You have to play defense better than Blanco does. In short, if you're as powerless as Gregor Blanco, you need to do everything else well. And he doesn't.

Jordan Schafer was Atlanta's Great White Hope this time last spring. After a huge 2007, the 21-year-old center fielder was the talk of the Braves' training camp. But Schafer tested positive for HGH and was suspended for 50 games by the commissioner's office. He came back to post solid numbers in 84 Double-A games (.269/.378/.471), but that line wasn't overwhelming enough to offset the bad press from his HGH suspension.

Schafer, now 22, should start the year at Triple-A Richmond, is one of Atlanta's best prospects but the team's best hope for an actually productive center fielder. The Braves are going to be reluctant to rush him, especially if it doesn't seem like they have a real chance at the division. He'll need to post a full, healthy, completely legal season to assuage any remaining doubts.

I should write up Brandon Jones, but the Braves don't like him, and he's not good enough for that to anger me. Screw Brandon Jones.

Florida 60, Kentucky 53

2009-03-07T16:44:00.004-06:00

It wasn't pretty, and it's not going to be enough to single-handedly salvage Florida's NCAA Tournament hopes. But the Gators pulled off an ugly victory over an arch-rival on Senior Day, and in doing so left themselves with at least a shred of credible tournament aspirations.

Walter Hodge, the winningest player in Florida history, played big in his final game at The O'Dome. Hodge scored 18 points on seven of 12 shooting, drained three three-pointers, recorded three steals and played a huge role in the full court press that bedeviled Kentucky throughout the game. These UF-UK matchups are interesting: Kentucky has the size to exploit Florida inside, but the Wildcats are a horrible ball-handling team, and the Gators have had a lot of success pressing and hectoring them over the last two or three years. Florida forced Kentucky into 23 turnovers, against only seven assists and 23 field goals.

The Gators held Kentucky to two of 11 from behind the arc and led wire-to-wire. UK never got closer than six points in the second half, despite out-rebounding the Gators by 10 and grabbing 11 offensive rebounds. Kentucky big man Patrick Patterson, who spurned the Gators two years ago, scored 16 points and recorded 13 rebounds. UK was actually reasonably competent in their halfcourt offense, but simply gave away too many possessions with silly passes and poor ball handling.

But Jodie Meeks, the other half of Kentucky's two-headed monster, shot six of 18 and just two of nine from three point land. The Wildcats have nothing behind Meeks and Patterson; they need both to play at their best to win games against legit teams.

Florida won without a Herculean effort from sophomore point guard Nick Calathes, who continues to struggle with fatigue and the flu. Calathes scored just five points on two of nine shooting and committed seven turnovers to go against the same number of assists. He did have three steals.

The win gives Florida a final regular season record of 22-9, 9-7 in the SEC. Both are fairly gaudy figures, but with the weakness in both UF's out of conference and conference schedules, it's not enough to win a spot in the NCAA Tournament. Fortunately, the Gators have a chance to pile up some victories in the SEC Tournament. They'll open against Arkansas, the conference's worst team. A rejuvenated Auburn team earned a first-round bye and awaits the winner of that game in the quarterfinals. If things go as they should, Tennessee will beat the winner of the opening round Ole Miss-Vanderbilt game and advance to the semis.

I think Florida needs three tournament wins. Two probably makes UF the last team out of the tournament; Arkansas is downright crummy, and Auburn, while improved from early in the year, doesn't provide the credibility UF needs.

Tossed Up, Shot Down

2009-03-05T15:09:00.002-06:00

You can see on the sidebar that Iowa has been added to the "Rejected By" column. I had previously listed it as a toss-up school, so this is the first real disappointment of the process, especially considering that the school had a lot of professors studying the same sort of things that interest me.

So, that's three down, and five to go. Further developments as they...develop.

2009 Atlanta Braves Preview, Part 1: The Infield

2009-02-28T15:38:00.015-06:00

2008 In Review

Let's keep this section brief. I saw Coraline last week and I don't need to recap another horror movie in great detail.

Things went awry for the Braves last year, as a season that began with postseason aspirations ended with Atlanta posting its worst record since 1990. The 72-90 mark was fueled by an abysmal outfield and a resonance cascade that tore through the pitching staff and left few untouched. Tim Hudson went down with an elbow injury in the middle of an excellent season. John Smoltz contributed just 28 (excellent) innings before his arm finally exploded. Peter Moylan went down early and Rafael Soriano spent all year battling mysterious arm ailments that limited him to just 14 innings. Tom Glavine was awful, then he was injured, then he was awful and then he was injured once more, this time for good.

Of the healthy pitchers, the only bright spots were young Jair Jurrjens, fun journeyman Jorge Campillo and the since-departed Will Ohman. The offense had more going for it, and we'll start the 2009 preview by looking at the strength of the Braves.

The Infield

Catcher
Atlanta's infield, and, in fact, the entire team, is anchored by two players at the opposite ends of their respective careers. Brian McCann enters the 2009 season as one of the most desirable commodoties in Major League Baseball.

McCann hit .301/.373/.523 as a 24-year-old catcher, earning him his second Silver Slugger award and third-straight All Star Game appearance. A career .297/.358/.501 hitter, McCann has few weaknesses as a hitter. He hits for average and power, draws a respectable number of walks, makes consistent contact and hits the ball to all fields with authority. He is, in short, a fantastic player, and if you'll excuse the cliche, the sky's the limit for Brian McCann. I doubt he'll ever consistently hit .333, as he did in 2006, but he absolutely has the swing and discpline to hit .310+ on a year-in, year-out basis. Considering both the number of doubles he hits (36 in 2006, 28 in 2007 and 42 in 2008) and his youth, it's not irrational to hope for an uptick in his power numbers. Should the Braves make a miracle run to the playoffs, McCann could easily find himself in the MVP discussion.

Cons? His defense is in the Javy Lopez mold: unimpressive, at times lackadaisacal, but not a serious deficiency. He throws out a respectable number of runners, but doesn't block the plate well. McCann's also painfully, glacially slow, and that's more of a concern. Ever since he hurt his ankle in 2006, McCann's lost a small chunk of his value because of his inability to run the bases. Stole five bases last year without being caught, which leads me to question the wisdom of the five different "Catch Leukemia, Catch In The Big Leagues!" promotions Braves' opponents held last year.

When your starting catcher is Brian McCann, the back-up backstop isn't very important. Still, Frank Wren did a nice job upgrading the position this winter. It probably wasn't a great idea to give Dave Ross a two-year contract, but he's about as competent as you can expect from the back-up catcher spot. Ross is a Gator, which means he contributes five or six wins worth of pure awesome every year. Beyond that, he's got excellent power and the ability to luck into home runs not infrequently. He's drawn 135 walks in 1124 career at-bats. So he has some skills. He also has trouble making contact and can't hit for average at all, which is why he's grateful for a two-year contract and the opportunity to back up one of the best catchers in the game and not starting somewhere.

Clint Sammons is the back-up catcher of the future, which is sort of like of being the dauphin in 1789. When he posts an OPS higher than .610 at AAA, he'll get a longer write-up.

First Base

Of the many humiliating aspects of 2008, the worst was probably trading Mark Teixeira for two unimpressive players a year after acquiring him in exchange for five prospects. (One of them, Neftali Feliz, was named by Baseball America as one of the game's ten best prospects) The important unimpressive player was Casey Kotchman, who went from mediocre in Anaheim to abysmal in Atlanta. (As an aside, "Abysmal in Atlanta" would make a great title for a hip-hop album)

It's a bad sign when you're praying for your first baseman to hit up to his career averages of .269/.336/.412, but then, it's a worse sign when your first baseman hits .237/.331/.316, as Kotchman did for Atlanta. Kotchman's only 26, and by all accounts he's a fairly slick defensive player. And shortly after he came to Atlanta, his mother suffered a brain hemorrhage, so a compassionate observer has to cut him some slack for his struggles with the Braves. Still, it's hard to imagine him truly being an asset at first base.

That won't matter much, because the Braves don't have a lot of options behind him. His primary back-up is Greg Norton, a personal favorite of mine who's 35 and pretty much a professional pinch-hitter at this point. He actually does that pretty well, all things considered. After the Braves acquired him in May, Norton was one of the few...well, let's not say "bright spots," since a 108 OPS+ from an old corner player isn't notably luminescent. But he was a useful bat off the bench, and he might have one more solid campaign left .

Second Base

Kelly Johnson's another of my personal favorites. Unlike Norton, this one still seems to have upside and the potential for greatness ahead of him. After all, you have to be pretty sanguine about an athletic second baseman coming off consecutive seasons with OPS+s of 117 and 108. He's got a nice swing, a good eye and a discplined approach.

But I can't shake the feeling that KJ is about at his ceiling. His numbers fell off a scosh last season, especially in the plate discpline category, but that doesn't concern me. No, he's simply a guy with obvious holes in his swing that seem difficult to fix. Johnson has serious issues with fastballs on the outside part of the plate. He doesn't make contact very often on those pitches, and when he does he's prone to weak pop-ups on the left side of the infield. Way too many P-5s and P-6s on Kelly's scorecard.

Still, if Johnson is what he is, his "is" is plenty good enough. He had the fourth-highest OPS among NL second baseman last year, third-highest in 2007. He's a competent defender and confident runner. Pitchers can keep the ball away from him, but even Major Leaguers make mistakes. They make enough of them, and Johnson hits them well enough, to make KJ a force for good in this world.

He has an able set of back-ups. Martin Prado is a career .307/.363/.432 hitter, albeit in just 329 carer at-bats. Mac Thomason over at Braves Journal rather spectacularly dinged his defense by describing a misplay that's scored a hit as "A Prado." Still, Prado can quasi-competently play three positions (second, third and first) and can start for a week or two at a time without killing the team.

Shortstop

Yunel Escobar's a funny little player. He consistently hits the ball hard and racks up good averages, but doesn't register a lot of extra base hits. (Just 36 last year) He's slow and grounded into 24 double plays in 2008. According to one of the sophisticated defensive measurements, he was the second-best defensive shortstop in the majors. It's kind of hard to believe a shortstop can be at once slow and slick, but Yunel seems to have pulled it off.

I'm interested to see where his career goes from here. He hit .288/.366/.401 last year, and combined with his sparkling defense, that's an excellent player. He's going to be 26 in 2009, and he's one of those players who seems to have a good command of the strike zone in spite of low walk numbers. There's still some upward mobility ahead of him.

Escobar's back-up is the versatile Omar Infante, who logged significant innings at third, short and second and in left field. He had a nice little season as Atlanta's utility player, but that .293/.338/.416 season seems unsustainable. Infante should remain a useful player, but if he's Atlanta's best left fielder (as he was for large stretches of 2008), the Braves are in serious trouble. Again.

Third Base

And so we come to the second infield anchor, a future Hall of Famer and one of the two remaining links to Atlanta's glory days. Chipper Jones remains one of the game's elite hitters, a potent combination of batting average, power and plate discpline. He has lost the speed of his youth, when he stole 25 bases in 28 attempts in the magical 1999 season. But aside from that, his skills remain undegraded.

Chipper won his first batting title in 2008 with a .364 mark and joined that average to his usual discipline and power. His .364/.470/.574 line was good for a 174 OPS+, actually better than 1999 (168) and 2001. (160) That figure was good for second in the NL, behind only Albert Pujols.

And 2008 was not a dead cat bounce for a declining player. His numbers in 2007 were similarly excellent, and 2006 wasn't much worse. (154 OPS+) All of this is a long way of saying that Chipper retains the talent needed to be an elite player. Any player at Chipper's age (he'll turn 37 on April 24) is in danger of a quick and lethal collapse, but this particular 37-year-old is as safe a bet as any to continue performing at a high level. He even seems to be playing defense better than he did in his young and callow days.

If that was the whole story, 2006, 2007 and 2008 would have been much more enjoyable for the Braves. Chipper was always prone to little injuries; he only once played 160 games. He used to have truly impressive recuperative capabilities; Chipper would get hit on the elbow with a pitch, make noises about going on the DL, then come back the next game and hit two home runs. These days, he tweaks his hamstring, sits out three games, declares himself ready to roll, then re-aggravates the injury in warm-ups and sits on the disabled list for three weeks.

Chipper hasn't played 140 games since 2003, and at this point you simply have to plan on him missing at least 25 games. The problem is not so much that he's suffering from Griffey-esque chronic ailments. He gets hurt in understandable ways (slipping on an atrocious field in San Francisco, getting upended by Jose Bautista while running the bases, etc.) and just can't recover in a timely fashion. There are rarely any lingering effects when he comes back from these injuries; he goes 3-for-5, gets hurt, sits out three weeks, comes back and goes 2-for-4 with a walk.

In its current state, Chipper's career is a battle between fragility and ability. When he plays, he's a Hall of Famer. Unfortunately, that "when" hasn't been happening often enough. Infante and Prado are decent utility players, but they can't replace Chipper Jones.

Well, This is Encouraging

2009-02-26T17:36:00.001-06:00

Rocky Mountain News to close shop.

The Rocky Mountain News, Colorado's oldest newspaper and a Denver fixture since 1859, will publish its last edition Friday.

Owner E.W. Scripps Co. said Thursday the newspaper lost $16 million last year and the company was unable to find a buyer.

"Today the Rocky Mountain News, long the leading voice in Denver, becomes a victim of changing times in our industry and huge economic challenges," Scripps CEO Rich Boehne said.

Garret, Son of Ander

2009-02-22T19:18:00.003-06:00

Multiple outlets are reporting that the Braves have signed Garret Anderson. I'm holding out for a Furcal-Griffey scenario here, but it's hard to imagine there's someone so desperate to sign him that they'll swoop in with an offer that will blow away Atlanta's $2.5 million contract.

This signing is less bad than it is dispiriting. It's possible to squint really, really hard and see a scenario where this kind of works. Anderson hit .293/.323/.450 against righties last year, and Matt Diaz is .326/.361/.508 for his career against lefties. So maybe, in theory, this could work.

But you have to try awfully hard to reach that "maybe." It's still disappointing, and not just because MLB.com's Mark Bowman (who's usually a reliable mouthpiece for the organization) says Anderson might not have to be platooned. (Bobby Cox is quoted as saying Anderson can hit righties and lefties)

Signing a 36-year-old (37 in June) Garret Anderson is just the kind of dull, uncreative move that dull, uncreative organizations resort to every season. Is it fair to criticize Frank Wren for making a move like that? Maybe not. After all, Major League Baseball doesn't hand out extra wins for nifty, complicated transactions. The Braves' outfield...well, lets face it: it sucked last year. The best line (.289/.340/.418) belonged to Mark Kotsay, and he's not going to be playing for the Braves in 2009. So Anderson's .293/.325/.433 production is almost close to being nearly respectable.

The problems come when you start asking whether you can expect him to put up even that uninspired line next season. Anderson's not a dynamic defensive player or baserunner any more, so all he's got is his bat. And while I'm always wary of signing 36-year-old corner outfielders, I'm especially concerned when the corner outfielder isn't particularly good. Greatness can fall off the clip at any moment, it's true, but mediocrity is equally celeritous, and the rocks are even sharper at the bottom.

The Braves had legitimate shots at Pat Burrell, Adam Dunn and Bobby Abreu, and were rumored to be in on Xavier Nady or Nick Swisher. So falling back to Garret Anderson...it's bothersome.

Ain't Nothin' But a G Post. Baby.

2009-02-21T12:38:00.004-06:00

The Braves signed Tom Glavine Thursday to an incentive-laden one-year deal, effectively guaranteeing him the fifth spot in their starting rotation.

Mixed feelings here. On the one hand, Glavine really kind of sucked last year; 5.54 ERA, 37/37 K/BB ratio, 11 home runs in 63 1/3 innings. Oh, and he's a 43-year-old coming off serious elbow and shoulder surgery. The Braves have a trio of young starters in Jo Jo Reyes, Charlie Morton and uber-prospect Tommy Hanson who should be competing for that slot in the rotation. Reyes and Morton probably aren't very good, especially Reyes, but there's a non-zero chance they'll figure something out. They're young and talented, and right now you can't say either of those things about Glavine. I'd like to make a final judgement on Morton and Reyes or see if Hanson's ready for the bigs.

That's without mentioning Jorge Campillo, who's almost certainly due for a long fall onto jagged rocks, but who pitched well enough last year to earn a shot at a starting gig. Instead he'll be relegated to long relief work in the Atlanta bullpen.

On the other hand, you can never have enough depth at the back end of the rotation. There's a good chance neither Reyes nor Morton are good pitchers and that Hanson isn't ready yet. And since we don't know much about Kenshin Kawakami yet, you have to consider the possibility that he'll go all Kei Igawa on the league. In that case, you're going to need all the remotely competent pitchers you can find.

And...well, it's Tom Glavine, people. The most he can earn if he achieves all of his incentives is $4.5 million. Even for the Braves that's hardly a significant outlay.

The other news o' the week was Ken Griffey Jr's decision to spurn Atlanta and sign with the Mariners. The Atlanta Journal-Constitution's beat writer, David O'Brien, had reported that Griffey would sign would sign with the Braves. After Griffey called up various media outlets and denied the story, O'Brien said on his blog that the deal was sealed and Griffey would be a Brave. So this is kind of a black eye for both him and the Braves organization.

There's a strange phenomenon where people tend to get fanatical about acquiring something that barely interested them in the first place. According to reports, Braves GM Frank Wren had no interest in signing Griffey until the aging slugger called up Chipper Jones and let him know he would be amenable to the Braves' advances. So Wren made contact, offers were exchanged, and suddenly signing Griffey became a necessity, especially to the fans.

So this is disappointing, if only because it looks like the Braves will go into the season with the same personnel in the outfield that hit just 27 home runs in 2008. You don't win the division relying on Matt Diaz or Josh Anderson in one corner position and Jeff Francoeur in the other, especially when they flank Gregor Blanco in center.

But like Glavine there's a chance Griffey's toast. He's old, fragile, declining in offensive skills and an embarrassment defensively. A Griffey-Diaz platoon is not actually an awful idea, but it has the air of something that works better in Baseball Mogul than in real life.

Dance, Dance, You Never Had A Chance

2009-02-20T12:17:00.001-06:00

We're never getting the book, are we George?

The Flip Side

2009-02-17T15:57:00.003-06:00

I wrote Sunday that Saturday was a good news/bad news kind of day. I went on at great length about the bad news, but neglected the good. Since I try to be a positive sort of fellow, that's just unacceptable.

I got a letter from the University of Kansas Political Science Department Saturday, informing me that the graduate committee has recommended to the grad school that I be accepted as a student. Since most of you who read DR are friends with me on Facebook, you know this already, but a little self-aggrandizement never hurt anybody.

Now, this isn't official yet. The graduate school still has to review my transcripts and make its determination. But there's no reason to expect those Jayhawk bigwigs will ask me to talk to the hand. So I'm counting this as an acceptance.

As you can see, I've added a little note on the sidebar. There I can keep the breathless masses up-to-date on my decision-making process. And if you see that, you see that Illinois was not so kind as KU. That's disappointing, but hardly surprising. Illinois gets about 130 applicants a year and likes to accept 10-12 students. And since I wasn't a notably good undergrad, the odds were against me.

I'm still waiting on six schools. I'm optimistic about Missouri and Florida, pessimistic about Michigan and George Washington. Colorado and Iowa seem like toss-ups.

In other news, it appears that the Braves are close to signing Ken Griffey Jr. I'll weigh in when that's official.

The Decline and Fall of the Gator Empire?

2009-02-15T12:32:00.004-06:00

Saturday was kind of a good news/bad news sort of day. We'll get to the good news later, but I've always been a believer in diluting the bad with the good and not the other way around. So we'll start with the bad news.

The bad news is that Florida traveled to Athens and lost to Georgia, 88-86. Losing to the Bulldogs in any sport is deeply unfortunate, but falling to a team that was previously winless in SEC play stings. UGA is now 10-15 on the season, so suffice it to say this is not what the bracketologists call a "quality loss."

I couldn't watch yesterday's game, so this isn't another game story. I know Nick Calathes had another outstanding performance, and I know Walter Hodge finally played up to his seniority. I also know that true freshman Erving Walker took the last shot of the game without so much as looking for either of those two players, and that's probably not a good thing.

No, I'm more concerned about the larger issue of Florida's basketball program. (The men's, that is. The women's team is having a hell of a season) UF might well manage to slip into the NCAA tournament; they have two eminently winnable games against Vanderbilt and Alabama, and two home contests against Kentucky and Tennessee. The Gators are on the bubble, but control their own destiny.

The bigger problem is that yesterday's game offers strong evidence that, once again, Florida just isn't very good. And that's troublesome, because it's the second straight year where that's the case.

I said before the season that missing the NCAA Tournament last year wasn't disastrous, but missing it two seasons in a row would be a serious blow to the program. It would be seen as evidence that the 04's and the back-to-back national championships were flukes. UF isn't doing anything to shake that impression.

It would be one thing if the Gators had simply fallen back to their pre-championship levels. Those Matt Walsh-Anthony Roberson-David Lee teams were frustrating in a lot of ways, and they never reached the Sweet 16. But they were solid clubs. They won a lot of SEC games, put up good conference tournament performances and won some challenging non-conference games. Instead, Billy Donovan's team has stumbled even further. The Gators are still competent, still competitive, can still beat a good team on a good day, but they're no real threat to accomplish anything. UF might sneak into the tournament as an eight or nine seed, but it's hard to see what that would really mean.

There are reasons for that, to be sure, but the reasons are starting to sound like rationalizations and excuses. A drop-off was inevitable after losing all five starters from the 2006-2007 championship team. There wasn't much experience behind them, and underclassmen were thrown into the fire last year. And when Marressee Speights left early and wing player Jonathan Mitchell transferred, it guaranteed the same would still be true in 2008-2009. (73 percent of Florida's minutes this year have been logged by underclassmen.)

But the youth argument wears thin when I watch Kansas. The Jayhawks lost every important player from their national championship squad and rely heavily on underclassmen. Junior point guard Sherron Collins played a huge role on the championship team, and he runs this squad, so KU does have more continuity than the Gators did. But beyond him, the Jayhawks' squad is young and inexperienced.

And Kansas is now 20-5, 9-1 in the Big 12. They entered the week ranked 16th in both major polls. UF's record is similarly gaudy (19-6), but the Gators are just 6-4 in the SEC. That's without mentioning that KU's schedule has been more difficult, both in and out of conference. Both teams played Washington and Syracuse in a mid-season tournament. But while the Gators' next-best out of conference opponent was NC State, Kansas went on to play Massachusetts, Arizona, Tennessee, Siena and Michigan State. And the Big 12 is better than the SEC.

What makes this particularly galling is that it's not the first time Bill Self and the Jayhawks have pulled off the trick. The 2005-2006 KU team lost the core of the Aaron Miles-Keith Langford-Wayne Simien team that advanced to the Elite Eight in 2003-2004 but fell to Bucknell in the first round of the 2004-2005 NCAA Tourament. In 2005-2006, KU struggled early, but eventually won a share of the regular season conference championship and won the Big 12 Tournament Championship.

They also went on to lose to Bradley in the first round of the tournament, which was infruriating at the time. But they also had tangible accomplishments and acquitted themselves well.

Why haven't the Gators been able to respond similarly? The problem is not so much youth as it is the talent of that youth. Donovan's 2007 class, the freshmen who had to carry the 07-08 team, had five members. Only one of those players, Nick Calathes, was in a position to make an immediate impact. Jai Lucas started every game, but only out of necessity. Chandler Parsons, Alex Tyus and Adam Allen are all talented players, but they were all developmental prospects, guys who needed to sit for a year and learn the game. None had the luxury.

Tyus has taken a nice leap in his sophomore year, but Parsons still too often looks lost. (Allen is taking a medical redshirt) The 2008 class is more college ready; Erving Walker's been a revalation as a true freshman, and Ray Shipman, Kenny Kadji and Allan Chaney have all made acceptable contributions.

But "acceptable contributions" aren't what the Gators need. Great teams are built in one of two ways: a talented core sticks around for two or three years and gels together into a team. Or the coach recruits a group of players so talented that they overcome their inexperience and make an instant impact.

Donovan hasn't done the latter. And the former strategy was short-circuited when Speights left last off-season. The Gators once again find themselves without an inside presence, relying on young or out-of-position players to man the interior. Tyus is too small to play center, and Dan Werner is out of position at the power forward spot.

But the "let the core gel" strategy was kneecapped years ago. Florida's senior class consists of Hodge. And...Hodge. His fellow signees didn't last long in Gainesville. David Huertas transferred after his freshman year, as did big man Jimmie Sutton. (Who redshirted in his first year) Derwin Kitchen didn't qualify academically.

Florida's junior class consists of Werner and...Werner. Brandon Powell transferred after his freshman year, and Jonathan Mitchell left after his sophomore season. Speights, as mentioned, declared for the draft.

In short, Donovan has signed two largely failed recruiting classes, leaving him to rely on underclassmen. Which, again, wouldn't be a problem if the 07 and 08 classes were filled with instant impact talent. But instead Donovan largely signed complementary players and developmental prospects in a conscious attempt to avoid some of the mistakes he made in the early part of the new century with highly regarded five stars who left early and didn't come at all. (Kwame Brown, for example)

Florida's immediate future falls on Calathes. If he bolts after this season, as some expect, Florida's basketball program will be on a treadmill, trying desperately to catch up with departed talent. The Gators should get some help inside with the addition of two well-regarded freshmen big men and improvement from Kadji and Chaney. But if Hodge and Calathes leave, Florida's guard position will fall to Walker, Shipman and incoming uber-prospect Kenny Boynton.

Boynton is exactly the kind of high-impact, early-impact player the Gators need. But that leads to another troubling question: if Boynton plays well for Florida in 2009-2010, will he be tempted to leave early for the NBA? And again, Donovan's back on the treadmill.

Kentucky 68, Florida 65

2009-02-10T23:16:00.003-06:00

One of the blessings of sport is that is a result-driven affair. At the end of the game, all you need to do is look at the final score to know what happened. Conclusions are drawn off those numbers. People are judged off those numbers. And those conclusions, those judgments, can't be questioned. The score is all that matters.

And that is also the great cruelty of sport.

Nick Calathes played the game of life, slashing through Kentucky's defense and draining extraordinary shots against stifling defenders. He scored 33 points, a career high, grabbed seven rebounds and dished three assists. And he ended up standing on the free throw line in Kentucky's Rupp Arena, his team down by three with six tenths of a second left, trying to figure out how he was going to turn one free throw into three points.

He was there because Kentucky's Jodie Meeks (who is one game away from earning a profane middle name) hit an absurd three pointer over his out-stretched hand with six seconds left. Calathes stuck with Meeks, played laudable defense and forced his man, the best scorer in the SEC, to alter his form and heave up an off-balance three as the shot clock expired. And it swished through the net, giving Kentucky the lead.

Calathes streaked down the court and threw up his own desperation three; it fell short and wide, but only because UK's Kevin Galloway fouled him on the shot. Calathes was 11 of 12 from the charity stripe at that point and had made nine in a row. My statistically inclined friends are going to scold me for saying this, but the math didn't augur well. Nick needed to make all three shots, and doing so would have given up a streak of 12 straight converted free throws. I didn't like those odds.

For good reason. Calathes' first shot rimmed out. He missed his second. And so he was left with the enjoyable task of intentionally missing the shot with enough velocity so that it would bounce to the three-point line. There, one of his teammates would pick it up and drain the game-tying three. In six-tenths of a second.

The plan predictably failed; Calathes' line drive missed the rim and Kentucky got the ball back. UF fell to 19-5, 6-3 in the SEC.

Florida was in a position to be heartbroken by Jodie Meeks because at several points in the second half they blew leads and because they consistently allowed Kentucky to gather offensive rebounds and score on second chance shots. The Wildcats out-rebounded the Gators, 39-25, and 11 of those were on the offensive end.

The Gators forced 19 turnovers in the game and held Kentucky to just 30 points in the first half. Granted, Kentucky held Florida to just 30 points in the first half, so the Gators didn't take great advantage of their defensive performance.

Walter Hodge, UF's lone senior, was ejected early in the second half after a bizarre series of events that began with Chandler Parsons being fouled on a three point attempt. It ended with Hodge walking off the court, ejected after the officials huddled around a monitor and determined that Florida's shooting guard deliberately stepped on the arm of UK's Perry Stevenson. I've seen the replays a dozen times and I can't say for sure whether Hodge did that intentionally; I have to wonder at the wisdom of ejecting a player in a close conference game on such a questionable play.

Hodge's loss didn't affect the Gators all that much. They pulled out to a 45-39 lead with 12:32 left in the game, but fell behind 48-47 just two minutes later.

Florida was able to re-gain the lead shortly thereafter and pushed it to six on two separate occasions, but the game basically oscillated between various small Florida advantages. But the Gators gave the Wildcats an opening when Chandler Parsons missed two free throws with 2:40 left and Florida clinging to a three-point lead.

Exactly two minutes later, after Kentucky had gained a slim one-point lead, Dan Werner made a free throw to tie the game. But he missed his second shot, and Kentucky gained control of the ball with 40 seconds left and the game tied at 65. After an exchange of timeouts and some manuevering from Kentucky coach Billy Gillispie, Meeks hit the game-winning shot.

The Gators' next three games are the three easiest left on their schedule. Georgia and Alabama are both crummy and coach-less. Vanderbilt, at least, is just plain crummy. It's imperative UF sweep those three games; if they do, they'll go into the home stretch with a 9-3 conference record. At that point, all they really need to do to put themselves into the NCAA tournament is win one game against LSU, Mississippi State, Tennessee or Kentucky.

Sign Along the Dotted Line, Please

2009-02-04T21:48:00.005-06:00

A fairly crummy Signing Day caps off a mildly disappointing recruiting season that still resulted in Florida inking a number of excellent players.

That number, unfortunately, is only 16. Urban Meyer didn't have a lot of scholarships to offer this year; his defense returned all 22 players on the two-deep depth chart, and his offense lost just a handful of standouts. So this wasn't going to be a big class.

But Meyer was burned by a handful of ill-timed decommits from players who had verbally pledged themselves to Florida.

One of the problems with following college football recruiting is that you start to take it personally. I went to this school and I loved it. Why isn't Johnny FiveStar over there salivating at the prospect of playing for my beloved alma mater? Is there a deficit in his character? You know what- he's not even Gator material anyway!

This is especially hard to shake when "your" team is exceptionally successful and the player in question has previously committed to the school in question. The Gators, of course, are coming off a national championship and should start the 2009 season as the number one team in the country. They've got a proven, superstar head coach. They've got 24,000 of the hottest female students in the country. They're in the state of Florida. Really, what's not to love?

Quite a lot, evidently. Meyer found out that a national championship means a little less than he might have thought. After clinching a berth in the BCS game, Florida lost the following highly rated recruits:

Nick Kasa, DE, Broomfield, Colorado
Marsalis Teague, CB, Paris, Tennessee
Nu'Keese Richardson, WR, Pahokee, Florida
Greg Reid, CB, Valdosta, Georgia

Reid's departure was particularly galling. On National Signing Day '08 he committed to the Gators, the earliest possible date he could do so. A lifelong Florida fan and ESPN's 15th best prospect, Reid spent most of 2008 happily recruiting for his future team. And then the Gators clinched a national championship berth, and Reid realized Florida's depth chart at his position was rather crowded. So he opened his recruitment, dazzled coaches and media at the Under-Armour All America game and found himself a highly valued commodity. He was not swayed when Meyer laid a guilt trip on him and pointed out that Florida had been recruiting him when no one else was on the Greg Reid bandwagon. Reid signed with Florida State today.

At least Kasa and Reid decommitted several weeks ago. Richardson and Teague bolted today, and both to arch-rival Tennessee and new head coach Lane Kiffin. Teague stayed close to home, but Richardson's departure is baffling. Again, fans tend to myopia, but it's hard to see what Tennessee offers a Florida receiver that UF doesn't.

Those losses hurt, because they left the Gators with just one receiver in the class and no cornerbacks. The latter is particularly troublesome.

Meyer and Company also lost out on a number of players who announced their intentions today. Linebackers Frankie Telfort (a Florida boy) and Jarvis Jones (Georgia) both opted to cross the country and play for Pete Carroll and USC. Jones, in particular, was a big loss, as he was targeted to be Brandon Spikes' replacement.

And Meyer again missed out on his white wale running back. After months of drama Trent Richardson, ESPN's top running back, re-affirmed his commitment to Alabama and spurned UF's advances.

But for all the players Florida missed out on, Meyer still managed to bring in a relatively impressive haul of talent. The crown jewel is Andre Debose, an explosive wide receiver (#2 on ESPN's list) whose high school tapes just scream "Percy Harvin." Meyer had to scrap and claw to hold on to him after a last second visit to Florida State, but there's little doubt he'll make an immediate impact.

Florida's lone Signing Day triumph came when Maryland linebacker Jelani Jenkins (ESPN's number nine overall prospect) declared for the Gators. He'll join Jon Bostic (#108) in forming an excellent linebacker class that could have been extraordinary with the addition of Jones and/or Telfort.

The real strength of the class is on of the offensive line, where Meyer dedicated five of the 16 scholarships. That unit is headed by Xavier Nixon, one of the best tackles in the country, and Nick Alajajian, a guard whose name is going to torment Verne Lundquist for the next four to five years.

The complete list is here. Also worthy of mention is Mike Gillislee, rated the 14th best running back in the country by ESPN; he's a good fit for the spread and makes whiffing on Trent Richardson slightly less troublesome. Jordan Reed, another Connecticut export, is the only quarterback in the class.

Florida 97, South Carolina 93

2009-02-03T22:41:00.005-06:00

Devan Downey devastates defenders with deafening dramatic displays.

Yes, Florida won this game and moved to 6-2 in the SEC, but it was South Carolina's Death Dwarf who stole the stole. The diminutive Downey scored 33 points on 13 of 24 shooting, drained seven of nine three-pointers and nearly hauled the Gamecocks to a dramatic, come-from-behind victory.

Fortunately, the key word there is "nearly." The Gators held on by the skin of their teeth and drained clutch free throws in the face of Downey's insane string of acrobatic threes.

UF had an 91-82 lead with 57 seconds left after Erving Walker nailed two free throws. Downey hit a three with 48 seconds left. 10 seconds later, senior Walter Hodge gave Downey and USC(E) the slim opening they needed when he missed two free throws. Downey drove the length of the court, blew past Walker and hit an easy lay-up, making the score 91-87.

Hodge, to his everlasting credit, hit two free throws with 31 seconds left, pushing the score to 93-87. Not daunted, Downey four seconds later hit another three-pointer, pulling South Carolina to within three. Nick Calathes, who hit 13 of 16 at the charity stripe after botching several attempts when the Gators played at South Carolina, sunk two shots, giving the Gators a 95-90 lead.

Yawning, Downey drained another three, making the score 95-93. The Gamecocks fouled Walter Hodge with 13 seconds left, and if he missed one shot, Downey was going to have a chance to tie the game with a three. If Hodge missed both, Downey was going to have a chance to win the game with a three. And to be honest, I say "a chance" despite knowing that Downey definitely would have made that shot.

Hodge came through and buried both shots, and even Devan Downey couldn't find a way to hit a four-pointer. He barely missed a desperation three at the other end, and Florida was able to corral the rebound and the victory.

Really a hell of a game all around. ESPN's announcing crew predicted 95-92 halfway through the first half, and they were pretty much on the money. Florida's inability to stop South Carolina was annoying, but those 92 points were far more the result of outstanding execution and unreal shooting than anything the Gators did poorly. The Gamecocks hit 50 percent of their 22 three-point attempt.

Walker deserves to be singled out for some praise. He played 29 minutes, more than anyone but Calathes and Chandler Parsons, scored 18 points on four of eight shooting and hit seven of eight free throws. Billy Donovan asked a lot of him, and the freshman handled his burdens with aplomb. Walker took the ball past halfcourt against SC's full court press, and he was expected to both guard Downey and be guarded by him. The latter task was no small thing; Downey's a steal machine, and Walker turned it over just once. (Against four assists.)

Parsons continued his good work with 14 points, 10 rebounds and three blocks. In fact, all five Florida starters (plus Walker) scored in double figures.

This was a big one for Florida. As I wrote above, it moves the Gators to 6-2 in the conference (19-4 overall) and gives them first place in the SEC East. Far more important is that it clears the road for nine SEC wins: UF need only best Georgia on the road and Vanderbilt and Alabama at home to clinch those nine wins and a better than .500 conference record.

Now, 9-7 in the SEC isn't going to get it done with the selection committee this year, considering how crummy the conference is. But if Florida wins those three games, it just needs to win one of the toss-up games (at LSU, at Mississippi State, either Kentucky game and home against Tennessee) to pull a 10-6 record. And no SEC team has ever gone 10-6 in the conference and missed the NCAA tournament.

Stimulating Thoughts

2009-02-03T14:18:00.007-06:00

Being President is hard. George Bush made darn sure you knew that during the 2004 election, but on the off chance you've either forgotten that election or made the conscious decision to wipe it from your mind, the debate over Barack Obama's $800+ billion stimulus package is a nice reminder.

On the one side, Obama's got a Nobel Prize winning economist repeatedly taking a piece of rebar to his kneecaps on the op-ed page of The New York Times because the package isn't big enough. (Hehehehe) On the other side, he's got an increasingly conservative Republican Party raising hell about every red cent of government spending in the bill. And he's not getting help from the media, which has given the anti-stimulus crowd ample time to air their grievances.

All of which is annoying enough for a standard-issue President, but it's doubly vexing for a man who ran on the idea of bi-partisan cooperation. He quite sincerely wants Republican votes for this bill. That might be for strictly political reasons, or it might be because he legitimately values the opposition's input, but regardless, he has assiduously courted their support.

Here's the thing: it hasn't worked. Obama and his partisans in the House made a number of concessions in an effort to win some GOP support. They threw in more than $300 billion in tax cuts, both as a sop to the Republicans and in order to fulfill some of Obama's campaign promises. They excised some of the "wasteful" spending in the bill, such as $200 million to repair the unimportant National Mall. They cut out the odious, burdensome $200 million that would have helped poor women purchase icky contraceptives.

And for all that, not a single Republican Congressman voted for the stimulus package. This is the reality Obama's facing. The newly elected head of the Republican National Committee praised his colleagues in the House for the "goose egg" they "laid on the President's desk." He has said that "no government in the history of mankind has ever created a job." The Republicans remaining in Washington are simply not inclined to get behind anything Obama proposes.

You could argue that the GOP's non-support in the House was pure obstructionism, a political middle finger raised in defiance at the new guy in the White House. But I'm inclined to be generous, and I think what we saw in the House was simply a dramatic manifestation of the philosophy that reigns in the party. These are deeply conservative men in deeply conservative districts, and they don't believe the federal government should spend money on anything beyond national defense and a big wall along the Mexican border to keep out illegals.

The Senate's a slightly different animal, in that there remains a core of moderate Republicans (Susan Collins, Olympia Snowe, Arlen Specter, etc) who can be won over by the right stimulus bill. And theoretically Obama needs a couple of those names to reach a filibuster proof super-majority.

I get that Obama wants to be bi-partisan, and the Democrats absolutely should be prepared to compromise on some issues. But at some point you have to dig in your heels. If you don't, and you start selling for scrap the infrastructure spending and environmental friendly changes that form the very foundation of the bill, then you have to wonder what the point of being a Democrat is if you're not willing to act like one.

The Democrats have 58 votes. (Counting Joe Lieberman and Bernie Sanders, and if Lieberman's not on board with this, someone really needs to stick Harry Reid in cryogenic stasis until future doctors come up with a way to surgically implant spines) You should be able to induce two Republicans to support a stimulus package containing large amounts of infrastructure spending and green improvements.

If you can't, if the GOP threatens a filibuster, then the answer should be simple: go ahead. Dare the Republicans to bottle up the "national recovery package" because they don't want to repair bridges and fill potholes. That will require some measure of message savvy, but not that much. Certainly not anything more than Obama's people have already displayed.

Reid needs to dare the GOP to actually filibuster the stimulus. Force them to make that decision. See if two of their number will crumble and vote for cloture and let the bill come up for debate. If they don't, then let Jim DeMint and Mitch McConnell stand on the floor of the United States Senate and expound on their anti-government philosophy.

You just won an election. The President recently pointed that out in one of his more eloquent moments: "I won." Act like it.

Tennessee 79, Florida 63

2009-01-31T22:05:00.003-06:00

I love Billy Donovan, as all Gators are legally required to do. But at this point, one thing seems undeniably: Bruce Pearl flat owns him.

Pearl's Volunteers took apart the Gators, and Pearl moved to 6-1 against Donovan, in the process righting the ship and ending an ugly skid that had left Tennessee in a dire situation vis a vis the NCAA tournament. The Gators once again leave Knoxville with a bloody nose and lingering questions about their talent and toughness.

Let me preface the rest of this post with a confession: I'm really not much of a basketball strategist. I follow the games the best I can, and I think I'm reasonably smart about it, but I couldn't diagram a play if you spotted me nine players and all the squiggly lines. So it's eminently possible that I have no clue what I'm talking about.

But I believe the idea of a zone defense is to neutralize the other team's advantage in size and post play. You force them into taking long range shots which are, by their nature, low percentage. This is especially effective when the other guys can't shoot three pointers. So I understand the rationale behind using the zone defense against Tennessee: the Vols have significantly better post players than the Gators, and UT came into tonight's game with a statistical record that said they were bad from behind the arc.

See, just this shows you how stupid Tennessee students are: they're so ignorant they don't even know they can't shoot three-pointers.

UT hit 12 of 28 from beyond the arc and nailed several early shots from beyond the arc. Again, I'm not much of a strategist, but I think they shot so well because the Gators never bothered to actually defend the various Tennessee shooters. My understanding is that while the zone is supposed to entice your opponent to shoot three-pointers, you're still supposed to contest those shots.

The Gators sort of forgot about that last part, especially in the first half when Tennessee out-scored Florida 39-22. The Vols pretty much ran the Gators off the court in that first half, and it would be easy to blame Nick Calathes' foul issues for that. He was whistled for his second foul less than three minutes into the game on an iffy charging call. It's never easy losing your best player for 10 minutes, as the Gators did.

But Florida actually played with admirable tenacity with its point guard out. The Gators were within seven when Calathes entered the game, but instead of making a run, they withered under a barrage of three pointers.

There's something to be said for Florida's tenacity in the second half, I suppose. The Gators out-scored Tennessee in the second half, and they made a legitimate run after falling behind by by 22 at a couple points. But I don't want to make to much of that; Florida never pulled within single digits, and every time they looked like they were making a run the Gators let Scotty Hopson (20 points, four of six from three) or Tyler Smith stick a dagger in their hearts.

In the "rose growing in crap" category, Chandler Parsons continued his good work, scoring 15 points on six of 10 shooting and grabbing nine rebounds. Dude still can't make his free throws.

Still, hardly a disastrous loss in the bigger picture. Florida's 5-2 in the conference and still in prime position for a tournament berth. The schedule gets plenty tough from this point, however. The surprisingly stiff 'Cocks of South Carolina come to Gainesvile Tuesday. The Gators still have road games at Kentucky, LSU and Mississippi State and home games against UK and UT.

Florida 94, Vanderbilt 69

2009-01-25T15:28:00.003-06:00

So that's why Chandler Parsons has a scholarship.

Florida's tall, gangly white guy had the game of his life, scoring 27 points on 10 of 11 shooting, including seven of eight from behind the arc. Parsons' teammates joined him in the hot shooting, hitting 15 of 25 three pointers and shooting 57.4 percent overall.

The Gators played their best game of the season against a Vanderbilt team sadly inferior to the last two teams Kevin Stallings has piloted into the NCAA tournament. It's dangerous to draw too many conclusions from what happened today. UF is now 4-1 in the SEC, but the Commodores are pretty crummy, and besides, Florida started last year's SEC campaign 5-1 (including a blowout win over Vanderbilt) before losing eight of their last 11 games and missing the NCAA tournament. The Gators have a home game against the fairly execrable Georgia Bulldogs coming up, so a second straight 5-1 start is in the cards. Hopefully this year's team will handle success a bit better.

But that's future talk, and right now it's enough to recognize how impressive a game that was. Coming as it did after last week's disaster at South Carolina, this performance was a huge pick-me-up for a team in desperate need of one.

Parsons was the star, but everyone got into the act for Florida. Freshman mighty mouse Erving Walker scored 17, Nick Calathes scored 15 (though he didn't have a good game distributing the ball), the heretofore invisible Walter Hodge had 10, and even freshman Kenny Kadji chipped in eight points in just12 minutes of play. Kadji also added two rebounds and a blocked shot; he's UF's best chance to find an interior presence this season.

There's not much of a game narrative to recap. Vanderbilt jumped out to an early six-point lead, Florida went on a run and never let up. They went into the half leading by 19, thanks to some nifty offensive rebounding and a miracle three pointer by Calathes. Vandy never came close to making a run in the second half, and the Gators spent most of that time ping ponging between a 20 and a 30-point lead. They retreated into the bunker in the final three minutes and missed on a chance to score 100, which is mildly disappointing.

Burn Notice: As Fond of Formulas as a Chemist

2009-01-22T22:01:00.004-06:00

Here's what I've noticed about Burn Notice's writers: they're exceptionally good at tweaking one or two aspects of the show's formula while leaving the underlying structure untouched. It's a really clever way of throwing in just enough spice to keep viewers from becoming bored while maintaining what's made the show a rollicking success. They keep the viewers and the paint by numbers story lines. It's win-win.

The variations introduced tonight in the premier of the...well, I'm not quite sure what to call it. "The premier of the second half of season two", I suppose. Catchy. Anyway, the variations on the theme tonight were tweaks to the established characters. Michael, having just survived an explosive attempt on his life, seizes on yet another charity case as a kind of lifeline. This one, naturally, involves an adorable little kid suffering from a fatal heart ailment.

And for the first time in two and a half seasons, Michael Westin loses control. He becomes emotionally invested. In one of the more effective scenes in the show's brief history, he explodes at Carla, the woman who's been controlling him since the start of the second season. He's angry and frightening, to be sure, even when tied to a chair, but he's also just a little pathetic. After two and a half seasons of imperturbable calm in the face of a brutal injustice, Michael cracks just enough to impotently mutter, "I want my life back."

This is where the the writers lay the tracks on which the rest of the season will travel. Because Carla and the tortuously lethargic organization backing her didn't try to kill Michael. In fact, they were the victim of attacks on both Westin and the sniper they had so carefully placed for an assassination. (Who did Carla want to kill? No one, not even the writers, know.) And just like Michael, they want answers. So Carla, played by Tricia Helfer with a sultriness that's a little too conspicuous to be truly sexy, gives Michael a new task: find out who tried to kill him.

There's your new formula: Mike's going to spend the rest of the season making incremental progress along that arc while saving the usual group of schlubbs and foiling the usual group of drug dealers, thieves and con artists. It is, as I said above, a minor tweak on the same formula.

Season One: Mike tries to find out why he was "burned." Saves schlubbs.
Season Two, Part I: Mike tries to find out what Carla's up to. Saves schlubbs.
Season Two, Part II: Mike tries to find out who tried to kill him. Saves schlubbs.

I think I discern a pattern.

Granted, Burn Notice operates on an idea not dissimilar from the one driving Law and Order: the formula gives the show strength. "Formulaic" is not an insult, it's just an adjective, and one both programs embrace. If you miss an episode of Burn Notice or Law and Order, it's not a catastrophe. You don't need the information you missed in Episode A to enjoy Episode B.

You don't want to take that comparison too far, by the way. L&O treats its characters as ancillary to the story. We don't know much about Jack McCoy or Lennie Brisco or the stealth lesbian played by Elizabeth Roehm, and we don't need to know much about them. Brisco snarks over the dead body, the anonymous attractive ADA gets handed a motion to suppress and McCoy growls something inaudible.

Burn Notice, on the other hand, treats its story as ancillary to the characters. You tune in to see what ridiculous contraption Mike's going to MacGuyver up and how he's going to manipulate a drug dealer into crafting the noose around his own neck. You tune in to see Bruce Campbell do his redoubtable Bruce Campbell thing. You tune in to see if the writers have thrown in a particularly blatant piece of Gabrielle Anwar fan service. (And those viewers weren't disappointed tonight. There's also a little somethin' for the ladies. NO SPOILERS!) The nature of the crisis Mike tackles in any given week is irrelevant.

That's not a recipe for true greatness. But it is a formula for success on the USA Network, and it is indisputably entertaining.

Two Out of Three Works For Me

2009-01-15T17:13:00.004-06:00

Percy Harvin leaves, Brandon Spikes stays.

Nothing too shocking here. Harvin was always assumed to be a three-year player, and while there were some rumblings about him sticking around, this announcement is far from earth-shattering. Spikes' decision is a little surprising, insofar as he was projected to be a first round choice and his family needs the money, but the key word there is "little." One more year of top-end production on a championship team will only help Spikes' draft stock.

I'll talk in a bit about the team Spikes is returning to, but it's important to a sing a paean to Percy.

Any discussion of the most explosive/dangerous/electrifying/dreamy players in Florida history has to start with Harvin. He's freakishly fast, to be sure, but what defines his greatness is his acceleration. Harvin has an extraordinary ability to go from standing still to full speed in the blink of an eye.

If that was all one could say for Harvin, it would be enough. But he has killed himself for the glory of Urban Meyer and the University of Florida. In last week's championship game he played through a fractured ankle. And to do that he had to forego his Christmas break, stay in Gainesville and rehab for more than 10 hours a day. It was just the most dramatic episode illustrating Harvin's willingness to play through pain for the Gators.

As admirable as that is, the fact that he had to play through so many injuries will be used against him in the run-up to the draft. He missed multiple games in all three seasons, and there's fair reason to wonder how the NFL will treat his finicky ankles. His role as a WR/RB hybrid at Florida means there isn't a lot of film of him doing receivery things. He doesn't have the size NFL execs look for in their receivers, and no one's going to make a guy with his injury history a full-time running back.

I suspect, however, that some team in the middle of the first round is going to overlook all that. There aren't a lot of players like Harvin lying around, and NFL teams are always desperate for big-play ability. Percy's got that in abundance.

Harvin made the right decision to go pro. He deserves to get paid. And while his departure presents some challenges for newly minted offensive coordinator Steve Addazio, he's leaving the team in great position for another championship run.

The offense is facing some challenges. Both tackles are graduating, and that's not a position where the Gators have great depth. UF's two best receivers are leaving, and it's not like Florida had a particularly dynamc passing attack this season.

But they'll weather that. Tim Tebow's returning, as are Chris Rainey, Jeff Demps and Emmanuel Moody, as well as a bevvy of talented receivers who haven't yet broken out. Meyer has also received a verbal commitment from Andre Debose, a receiver whose size, speed and high school film make him look an acceptable Harvin replacement.

And if the offense falls off a bit, the defense will make up for it. All 11 starters are returning from the championship team's stalwart unit, as is the rest of the two-deep. If one of the defensive tackles can step up and become a force (I'm looking at you, Torrey Davis), the 2009 defense has a chance to be the best in Florida history.

A quick programming note: the last several weeks notwithstanding, this has not become a sports blog. I realize my last non-sports post came on Christmas Eve. Rest assured, I fully intend to return to the subjects that reveal me to be out of my depth. But for now, I leave you with the following video of my favorite Percy Harvin play:

Braves Sign Actual, Factual Human Baseball Players

2009-01-13T14:51:00.003-06:00

Atlanta inks Derek Lowe, Kenshin Kawakami.

Kawakami's deal is official. Lowe's is not, and with the way the offseason has gone I don't want to jump the gun, but multiple news outlets say Lowe is a Brave. And his agent isn't going around telling everyone to chill, so this seems like a safe bet.

Once John Smoltz bolted, Lowe became a must-have for Frank Wren. That's not an enviable bargaining positioning, and Scott Boras quite predictably took good advantage of it. The Mets were offering merely three years and $36 million. The Braves ended up giving Lowe four years and $60 million. The $15 million is a slight overpay, but hardly disastrous. More troublesome is giving four years to the 35-year-old Lowe. Wren can't be doing cartwheels at the idea of paying a 39-year-old Derek Lowe $15 million in 2012.

But this signing has nothing to do with 2012 and everything to do with the winter of 2008 and the summer of 2009. After missing out on Jake Peavy, AJ Burnett, Junichi Tazawa, Rafael Furcal, Mike Hampton and John Smoltz, Wren desperately needed a splash to ameliorate the toxicity in Turner Field's atmosphere. More importantly, he needed some kind of reliable arm to plug into his rotation behind (or prefarably in front of) Jair Jurrjens and Javier Vasquez.

Well, he's got that. Since moving to LA in 2005, Lowe's put up ERA+s of 114, 124, 118 and 131. He's thrown fewer than 200 innings just once, and that was in 2007 when he tossed a paltry 199 1/3.

With Vasquez and his guaranteed 200+ innings, the Braves have brought in two pitchers who can relieve a lot of stress from Atlanta's overloaded bullpen. If nothing else, Bobby Cox knows he'll get six innings per start from Vasquez and Lowe, which is good, since the Braves aren't trotting out the Nasty Boys.

Lowe, Vasquez and Jurrjens will be joined by 33-year-old Japanese import Kenshin Kawakami. I can't pretend to speak authoratively about Kawakami. The clips I've found on YouTube show a pitcher with impressive control and an asthetically pleasing slow curveball. (Seriously, a top-notch 12-to-6 curve is one of the things I'd mention if a hostile alien overlord demanded reasons why humanity should be spared extinction) He's had some nice numbers for the Chunichi Dragons, but translating statistics from the Japanese Leagues to MLB is still an inexact science. And you always run a risk when signing Japanese pitchers, as they usually work in six-man rotations.

Regardless, Kawakami brings a little mystery and excitement to Turner Field, and that's a good thing. The Braves rotation looks to be Lowe-Vasquez-Jurrjens-Kawakami, with Jorge Campillo and several youngsters (Jo Jo Reyes, Charlie Morton, James Parr) competing for the fifth spot in spring training. Uber prospect Tommy Hanson waits in the wings and could see time later in the season. Tim Hudson's status recovering from Tommy John Surgery is unknown, though it's theoretically possible he could return in August or September.

There's something to be said for reliability, and while I don't think the Braves are in a position to seriously contend in the East (there are massive sucking chest wounds in the outfield), they're at least guaranteed the ability to go throw the rotation three or four straight times without needing to overhaul it.

Tim Tebow To Bypass Draft, Remain at Florida

2009-01-11T18:54:00.004-06:00

Also To Turn Water Into Wine. Not That He'd Ever Drink Alcohol.

The expectations for 2009 are pretty well set: national championship or bust.

The deadline for declaring is January 15. No word yet from Brandon Spikes, who's the only member of Florida's defense in a position to enter the draft. His brother is doing time in a North Carolina prison on drug charges, and the Spikes family is anxious to make enough money to hire a lawyer and appeal for a new trial.

More intriguing is Percy Harvin, who told a reporter after today's championship celebration that he was "leaning towards coming back." There's reason to be a little skeptical of that. Harvin was interviewed immediately after the celebration, when Tebow's declaration was fresh in the atmosphere. Players have made statements like this in situations like this before, only to change their minds later and enter the draft. And Harvin didn't even say he was staying.

Of course, Joakim Noah, Al Horford, Corey Brewer and Taurean Green all said they were staying at an emotional event celebrating UF's first basketball championship, and they stuck with that. So there's some pleasant history to remember.

With Tebow at the helm and at least 10 of 11 defensive starters returning, anything short of a national championship will be a disappointment. If Spikes and Harvin both return, the expectations rise even more. UF's first undefeated, national championship season becomes the goal.

No Smoltz, No Fire?

2009-01-09T13:49:00.004-06:00

John Smoltz signs with Boston

This news first broke Wednesday night and became official yesterday. For obvious reasons I've been focused on the gridiron for the last week, so this entry is slightly behind the curve. But it's important.

Rob Neyer once wrote that Smoltz was the easiest of the Big Three to relate to, the most human. I don't agree with that, but I see what he means. Maddux and Glavine just chugged through the years, posting great season after great season, never suffering injuries or performance downturns. They were like Swiss watches: clean, reliable, always effective.

Smoltz, on the other hand, dealt with the peaks and valleys that define the human experience. He was always great in the postseason. But his first truly extraordinary playoff start, Game Seven of the 1991 World Series, was marred by the knowledge that his team lost what might well be the greatest World Series game in baseball history. And when the Braves finally did win their one World Series, he had his worst postseason. (The Indians knocked him out of his lone World Series start after just 2 1/3 innings)

He won the Cy Young award in 1996 with 253 innings. But he missed the whole 2000 season, all but 20 innings of the 2008 season, large chunks of the 2001 season and lengthy swaths of several other years due to injuries. It's a cruel thing to be blessed with an arm that throws thunderbolts but punishes you for your gifts with excrutiating pain.

It was that fragility which ultimately led to this moment. The Red Sox have guaranteed Smoltz $5 million; the Braves' offer was just for $2 million. According to (the not-always-reliable) Mark Bowman, Atlanta's incentives were slightly more lucrative than Boston's. ($12 million to $10 million)

$3 million is the difference between losing John Smoltz and seeing him finish his career in Atlanta. It's...hard to take.

General managers aren't paid to be sentimental creatures. A lot of teams have lost a lot of games because they held on to players past their prime because they had contributed to previous glories. Frank Wren can't afford to pay in the future for what John Smoltz has done in the past. It's not realistic or fair to shout from the peanut gallery that Wren should have thrown at Smoltz anything he wanted to keep him in Atlanta.

But $3 million, in the context of a baseball team's payroll, simply isn't a substantial amount of money. It's eminently possible that Smoltz will flag in his rehab and never throw a pitch for the Red Sox, in which case they'd be out $5 million. As others have pointed out, Boston's more able to weather a $5 million hit than the Braves.

But, again, the Braves were willing to risk $2 million on John Smoltz. Why was $5 million completely out of the realm of possibility? Or, perhaps, a number greater than $2 million but less than $5 million?

There's another side to this this: did John Smoltz even want to return? He hasn't hidden his distaste for the way the team has degenerated around him. He's a postseason warrior, but a warrior smart enough to know that he had little chance of returning to the playoffs with the 2009 Atlanta Braves. And he's at an age where every opportunity is more likely than not his last.

That's his choice, but while I'm never inclined to attack a player for chasing a championship, Smoltz is not some great player who's toiled for decades with a crummy franchise. He has a ring. He's played in 40 playoff games. He's not missing an integral part of his legacy.

Regardless, this just places a cherry on top of the crap sundae that is Atlanta's off-season. Reports indicate that Wren is engaged in serious negotiations with Derrick Lowe, the free agent starter out of LA. I look forward to seeing the unique way Lowe and agent Scott Boras torment the Braves.

Florida 24, Oklahoma 14

2009-01-08T23:02:00.002-06:00

Never have I been so happy to be so wrong about so much.

I predicted a shootout between two high-octane offenses, a back-and-forth affair where the only team that could make a stop would pull out the win. I thought UF would eviscerate Oklahoma's defense. I thought the Gators would stifle Oklahoma's running game and force the Sooners into a one-dimensional attack.

The defenses largely prevailed. The Sooners had success running the ball. Florida's offense was stuck in neutral much of the game. And none of it matters, because Percy Harvin, Tim Tebow and a few key players on Florida's defense dragged the Gators to their third national championship.

Some of the stats are pretty: the Gators gained 480 yards, 249 rushing. But Oklahoma successfuly stifled Florida's offense for most of the day. The defensive line frequently overwhelmed Florida's protection schemes, and at times it seemed a repeat of the early stages of the Miami game.

But the UF defense, facing one of the greatest offenses in the history of college football, came up with three plays that will live in Gator lore:

1. After Tebow threw his second interception of the game midway through the second quarter with the score tied 7-7, Oklahoma turned to running back Chris Brown. He broke a 17-yard run to the Florida nine-yard line. A five-yard rush on first and goal took Oklahoma to the UF four-yard line. Brown rushed for three yards on second down. On third and goal Brown was stopped for no gain. Oklahoma eschewed the field goal and tried once more on fourth down to plow Brown into the endzone. But Torrey Davis, who's been a pain in Urban Meyer's side since coming to Gainesville in 2007, burst through the offensive line and tackled Brown for a loss of two yards.

2. Oklahoma took over at its own 20-yard line with 2:32 to go. The Sooners drove down the field with relative ease, Heisman Trophy winner Sam Bradford and his receivers picking apart UF's defense. With 10 seconds to go in the half, Oklahoma faced first and goal from the Florida six. Bradford tried to fire a pass into tight coverage. Joe Haden made a fantastic play, diving in front of the receiver and tipping the ball into the air. After Ahmad Black, Lawrence Marsh, Major Wright, Lito Shepherd, Jevon Kearse and Erin Andrews batted the ball around for a few minutes, Wright finally snagged the interception. The Gators would go into halftime tied at seven.

3. Florida led, 17-14, with 10:45 to go. Bradford completed a long pass to Brown, who followed it with a short rush to the 50-yard line. On second down, Bradford found Iglesias streaking down the middle of the field. Bradford's pass led Iglesias just a little too much; Iglesias briefly held the ball with his fingertips. But Ahmad Black came flying in, stole the ball and held onto it as he fell to the ground.

Black laid the groundwork, and then Tebow took over. On third and 12 from his own 35, Tebow rolled out and hit Riley Cooper across the middle for a 17-yard gain. Two plays later, Tebow fired an absolute bullet to David Nelson for 29 yards. It was an extraordinary pass, an NFL throw that he lasered just over the outstretched arm of a linebacker and just in front of a defensive back speeding toward Nelson.

From that point on Tebow and his offense simply bulldozed the Sooners. The Gators converted a third and six on a shovel pass to Aaron Hernandez, who's become well-nigh unstoppable on that play. He would cap off the drive, naturally, with his patented jump pass to Nelson.

Tebow finished 18 of 30 for 231 yards and two touchdowns, though he did double his season interception total with two picks. He was also Florida's second-leading rusher, picking up 109 yards on 22 carries.

Florida's leading rusher was, of course, Percy Harvin, who deserves a laurel wreath for his performance tonight. He played without the extraordinary burst and acceleration that normally defines him, but he retained enough raw speed and athletic ability to burst through the Sooners' defense for a 52-yard gain in the fourth quarter. It set up what turned out to be the game-winning field goal.

It's early to be talking about this, but Urban Meyer is staring a dynasty in the face. Florida will almost certainly lose Harvin and linebacker Brandon Spikes to the draft, but if Tebow elects to stick around for his senior year, Florida will be a unanimous pre-season number one in 2009. Even if Tebow leaves, Meyer will retain a core of talented, experienced players. The offense will lose both tackles to graduation, as well as wide receiver Louis Murphy, but the defense is bereft of seniors. As long as Meyer keeps plugging in top 1o recruiting classes, he'll have the kind of players needed to consistently compete for championships.

Championship Preview, Part 3: Prediction

2009-01-08T13:31:00.002-06:00

Short and sweet:

Florida 42, Oklahoma 38.

UF's offense runs up and down the field on Oklahoma's defense, avoiding turnovers and ripping big gains with Percy Harvin, Jeff Demps, Chris Rainey and Tim Tebow. Florida's defense largely shuts down OU's running game, leaving Oklahoma one-dimensional. It's a great dimension, and Sam Bradford will have a lot of success throwing against Florida's young secondary. But ultimately, the Gators will make just enough stops, the special teams unit will make two or three big plays and Florida will pull out a game for the ages.

Championship Preview, Part 2: When Florida Has The Ball

2009-01-06T16:58:00.004-06:00

Bob Stoops wants you to know that you can't judge Oklahoma's defense by its fairly unimpressive statistics. Stoops is so desperate for you to know this that he won't even wait for reporters to ask him about his defense. He's done public service announcements. He's bought a small plane and flown it around Miami, trailing a large banner that says "OU's Defense Can't Be Judged By Stats!" He called up the general assignment reporter at Miami's Spanish language newspaper aimed at gay Cuban emigres.

Stoops' argument is pretty simple: Yes, the Sooners rank 62nd in the country in total defense and 98th in passing defense. But those numbers simply reflect the philosophy of Oklahoma's defense. They'll give up big plays, but they'll also make big plays. The Sooners, after all, have forced 32 turnovers, tied for ninth in the country. And they've recorded 42 sacks, good for 3rd in the nation. The Sooners, Stoops argues, play ferociously and make up for their mistakes by forcing the opposition into its own.

Stoops is a smart guy and a fine coach, so he's not just blowing smoke. But if Oklahoma's defensive strength lies in forcing the opposing offense into making mistakes, then they're facing a bit of a quandry when gameplanning for Florida's attack. Simply put, the Gators don't make mistakes.

Florida's lost 11 turnovers all season, the third-best figure in the nation. (Oklahoma, it must be said, ranks first with nine) The Gators have thrown three interceptions all season, best in the nation, and one of those came from the arm of back-up John Brantley in the waning moments of UF's victory over Vanderbilt. Tim Tebow has thrown just two picks all season and nine in his entire career. For all the talk from Todd McShay and the other draft "gurus" about Tebow's godawful decision-making and complete inability to read defenses, Tebow has shown an almost preternatural ability to avoid turnovers as Florida's QB.

And the Sooners aren't going to have an easy time bulling through UF's offensive line. Florida has allowed 16 sacks all season, good for 16th-best in the nation.

In short, for all the razzle dazzle in Florida's offense, for all the speed and elusiveness, UF's offense is as good as it is in large part because it's so discplined and fundamentally sound. That, by the way, is Urban Meyer's Don Quixote issue: he wants everyone to know that Florida's is not a finesse offense.

For all the receivers and spread formations the Gators use, this Florida team is all about the running game. The Gators are 11th in the country (229 yards per game) when it comes to running the football. And they don't get those statistics through a "three yards and a cloud of dust" approach. Florida averages 5.96 yards per carry. And the Gators do it with a balanced approach:

Percy Harvin: 61 carries, 538 yards, 8.8 YPC
Jeffery Demps: 69 carries, 582 yards, 8.4 YPC
Chris Rainey: 83 carries, 655 yards, 7.9 YPC
Emmanuel Moody: 57 carries, 417 yards, 7.3 YPC
Tim Tebow: 154 carries, 564 yards, 3.7 YPC

The Sooners defend the run pretty well, 16th-best in the nation. As noted above, the Sooners have struggled immensely with the pass. The question is whether Florida can take advantage of OU's weakness in that area of the game.

The Gators are a long way from those Spurrier offenses of the mid-90's. Meyer and offensive coordinator Dan Mullen don't like to sling the ball around; UF ranks 62nd in the country in passing yards per game. (212.6, for the record) But the Gators average 9.24 yards per attempt, which is awfully good. Only two of the teams in the top 10 in passing beat that number. Florida just likes to run the ball, and when you have the collection of rushing talent listed above, it's not hard to understand why.

No matter how you look at this match-up, it's hard to say the Gators don't have the advantage. If Harvin's ankle cripples him Thursday night, it'll have an impact on UF's offense. The attack was noticeably less dynamic in the Alabama game with him sitting on the bench; his acceleration is unparalleled, he's as fast as anyone in the country and he can run powerfully between the tackles.

I'm assuming he'll play, and I'm assuming he'll do so on a relatively strong ankle. If that's true, I can't imagine Oklahoma stopping the Gators at all.

Pat "The Braves Still Lack" The Bat

2009-01-05T17:31:00.002-06:00

The Rays signed Pat Burrell to a two-year, $16 million contract today. It's a hell of a deal for them. Burrell's been about as consistent a hitter as you can find in baseball: 125 OPS+ in 2008, 127 OPS+ in 2007, 122 OPS+ in 2006, 128 OPS+ in 2005. There's a little more variation in the years before that, but regardless, it's pretty clear what the Rays are getting from Burrell. He's a pretty crummy defensive player, but he'll DH for Tampa, so that's hardly a problem.

But while he's a great bargain for the Rays, Burrell represents a tremendous missed opportunity for the Braves and GM Frank Wren, who evidently had no interest in the idea of Burrell filling the sucking vortex of doom that is Atlanta's left field position.

It's a little unfair to point at the numbers on this deal and castigate Wren for not signing Burrell to the same contract. There's no reason to believe Burrell would have signed the same deal with a non-contender like the Braves. He has a chance to compete for a World Series with the Rays, and there undoubtedly would have been an also-ran surcharge for the Braves. Burrell played his college ball in the state of Florida (at Miami, unfortunately), and it's entirely possible that he was willing to take a bit of a paycut to return to the Sunshine State.

So it's a little unfair to castigate Wren, but only a little. The Braves aren't big-time contenders any more, but they're still a desirable organization for a lot of reasons. They probably would have had to pay more for Burrell, but not an exorbitant sum. Even if you bump Burrell's salary from eight million a year to, say, 10 or 11 million, two years and $22 million for Pat Burrell is an eminently reasonable deal.

Would adding Burrell to the Braves roster, as it is currently constituted, make Atlanta a contender? No. But it would certainly make Atlanta more competitive, and the more talent a team has, the less luck it needs to pull off a miracle playoff run.

And here's the thing: even if Burrell Wohlersed on the Braves, it wouldn't be a disaster. Almost by definition a two-year, $20 million contract can not become an albatross. More importantly, Burrell wouldn't be blocking some talented young player. Signing Burrell wouldn't impact Atlanta's rebuilding effort at all. Uber-prospect Jason Heyward isn't expected to be ready before 2010 anyway.

Florida 68, North Carolina State 66

2009-01-03T19:32:00.002-06:00

Nick Calathes is an ugly dude. But he's a beautiful basketball player.

UF's extraordinary sophomore guard scored 32 points on 11 of 16 shooting to lead the Gators to an exciting, come-from-behind 68-66 win over North Carolina State. Calathes was everywhere and did everything down the stretch, scoring almost at will against a defense keyed to stop him. Calathes dished five assists, picked up five rebounds and made nine of his 13 free throws.

Floriad needed the Herculean effort because it had nothing to compare with State's inside presence. Forward Brandon Costner scored 24 points and the Wolfpack shot 58.5 percent against a Florida team that continues to struggle defensively.

But this was a different brand of defensive struggle from the one UF experienced against Syracuse. In that game, the Gators were hopeless against the Orange. UF's guards imitated matadors and the paint players pretty much stepped aside and let Syracuse score at will.

Today, UF was actually able to affect the other team on the defensive end. Florida took advantage of NC State's weak collection of guards with a strong full-court press. The Gators stole the ball 11 times and forced 18 turnovers, most of which came in the second half. Leading the defensive charge was itsy bitsy freshman Erving Walker, who recorded two steals and put pressure on every NC State player to pick up the ball.

This one didn't start like a particularly encouraging game. Florida jumped out to a small lead early in the contest, but quickly succumbed to the handful of talented post players State trotted on to the court. The Gators couldn't do anything inside (Pleasant Surprise of the Season Alex Tyus scored just two points) and couldn't hit a three-pointer to save their lives. (UF ended up two of 13 from behind the arc)

UF trailed by ten after the first 20 minutes of play, but the second half was its best of the season. The Gators never did find a way to stop NC State's halfcourt offense: UF either forced a turnover early in the possession or gave up points.

But driven by Walker's defense and Calathes' all-around brilliance, the Gators managed to briefly pull ahead late in the half. The two teams traded the lead a few times, and UF got the ball with 28 seconds left, down one.

Calathes calmly drove into the lane, lifted a one-handed running jumper and watched as it rolled through the net. NC State took the ball down the court, but the Gators once again stepped up and forced a turnover from Wolfpack guard Farnold Deagan. Calathes was credited with the steal, but it was more a product of Deagan's mistakes and UF's team pressure.

This win doesn't magically fix all UF's problems. The Gators aren't going to get taller or bigger as the season wears on. Freshman Kenny Kadji might grow into the system and give UF a little strength inside, but that's a thin reed on which to depend. Dan Werner's not going to become a legit post presence. And it's hard to imagine these guys developing into a defensive force.

But with the conference schedule on the horizon (the Gators have one more gimme non-conference game against Longwood), it's good to bank a win against a quasi-respectable ACC school. Washington and NC State aren't noticeably good teams, but they are names, and they're respectable enough to be decent wins on an NCAA resume.

Championship Preview, Part 1: When Oklahoma Has The Ball

2008-12-30T12:40:00.002-06:00

When Oklahoma's offense faces Florida's defense, both teams will be facing units of a quality they haven't seen this season. No one on UF's schedule features the kind of high-octane, fast-paced, record-setting offense of which Oklahoma can brag. But it works both ways: the Sooners haven't seen a defense with the speed, ferocity and overall talent of the Gators. TCU ranks higher, but it's probably fair to discount those statistics a little based on quality of competition.

This match-up takes on great importance, even beyond the obvious reasons. I think Florida's offense has a decided advantage over Oklahoma's defense (for reasons I'll explain in a later post), so Oklahoma needs to rack up the points. The Sooners won't be able to win this game without a top-flight performance from their offensive unit.

There's plenty of reason to believe they'll get it. What's frightening about Oklahoma aren't so much the statistics, though they are impressive: 562 yards per game, 54 points per game, 60+ points in each of the last 194 games, 356 passing yards per game, 205 rushing yards per game.

OK, so the stats are a little frightening.

But even beyond those numbers, Oklahoma's scary because of the sheer number of playmakers the Sooners will throw at the Gators. Heisman Trophy winner Sam Bradford is only the tip of the spear. He'll be handing off to Chris Brown, who's carried for more than 1,100 yards and 20 TDs. He'll be throwing to a quartet of prolific receivers: any one of Juaquin Iglesias, Jermaine Gresham, Manny Johnson or Ryan Broyles could start for Florida. And beyond those four there's Quentin Chaney, who's caught 27 passes for 467 yards.

To be sure, the Gators are in this position because their defense has taken a massive step forward from where they were during the 2008 Capital One Bowl. UF is ninth in the country in total defense, 15th in rushing defense, 19th in passing defense. Florida has talent liberally sprinkled throughout the field.

But for all those numbers, there are still some weak points. Joe Haden has improved significantly in his second year with UF and as a cornerback, but some teams have exploited him. LSU's Brandon LaFell abused Haden throughout the game, as did true freshman Julio Jones for Alabama.

Florida weathered Haden's struggles in those games because LSU didn't have the quarterback to take advantage of the situation and because Alabama didn't have a receiving weapon besides Jones. Neither of those things are true for Oklahoma. Bradford will read the holes in Florida's defense, and he has half a dozen targets to choose from. The Gators can't cheat to help Haden. He'll need to play top-flight football, because he'll be playing it without a net.

Gresham, Oklahoma's outstanding tight end, presents a particular match-up problem for the Gators. UF does have the advantage of two corners with above-average physical strength; Haden and Janoris Jenkins are big hitters. But Gresham's 6-6 and 261 pounds; neither Haden nor Jenkins are six feet tall. And throwing a linebacker on him is problematic as well. Brandon Spikes doesn't really have the speed or overall athleticism to cover Gresham, and besides, you don't want Spikes running down the field in pass coverage. You want him in the box, blowing up Brown or whoever else Oklahoma uses to run the football. Dustin Doe is fast enough for the job, but he's not big enough to physically handle Gresham.

UF's best option might be true freshman Will Hill, which is kind of scary. He's more than fast enough to cover Gresham, and his size (6'2, more than 210 pounds) means Gresham won't be able to physically intimidate him. That's not a great option, but it's the best I can come up with right now.

But the Gators' biggest problem is along the defensive line. Oklahoma's offensive line is massive. The Sooners have allowed just 11 sacks all season, the 3rd-best figure in the country. Florida, meanwhile, is just 32nd in the country in sacks; they've picked up 32 all season long. That's not a bad figure, but it's not a good one either, and when combined with Oklahoma's skill in pass protection, it's hard to see UF knocking Bradford down with much frequency.

A pass rush is the great equalizer: a bad QB, throwing to bad receivers, is still going to have success if he can stand untouched in the pocket and wait for someone to come open. Conversely, a great QB, throwing to great receivers, is rendered impotent if he has to run for his life on every play. The worst thing a defense can do is give a great quarterback all the time in the world to throw to great receivers.

Florida knows that better than most. The Gators turned 2006 Heisman Trophy winner Troy Smith into a shattered shell of himself because Jarvis Moss and Derrick Harvey eviscerated Ohio State's offensive line. If they can't put at least a little pressure on Bradford, the Gators are going to have to score more than 50 points to win.

Because It's Never Too Early to be Wrong

2008-12-24T14:30:00.003-06:00

We're about a month away from Barack Obama's inauguration. We're also separated by about a week from my last post, which is an entirely ridiculous length of time. With that in mind, as well as the relative lack of news in these pre-Christmas days, I figured it would be the perfect time to write about the 2012 presidential campaign.

Specifically the Republican field. (Let us assume Obama will win the Democratic nomination. That's the kind of insightful analysis you come to this blog to read) It is, at this absurdly, ridiculously early date, a wide-open competition. That's not to say it's a particularly impressive field, but it is intriguing, insofar as there are no clear-cut favorites, no incumbents or titans to suck up all the oxygen. Let's start with the man I'm most confident will enter the race.

Mitt Romney
A number of outlets have reported that Romney is already laying the groundwork for a 2012 run. Obviously there's a lot that can change between now and then, but a Romney candidacy seems like a foregone conclusion at this point.

Romney's second-biggest problem is that voters universally (and justifiably) consider him a snake. He doesn't seem to have any foundation, any bedrock principles define his life and political career. People look at him and wonder, "Is there anything he won't compromise to win an election?" His performance in the Michigan primary was notably tacky, as he excoriated John McCain making the self-evidently correct point that a lot of the manufacturing jobs that had left Detroit weren't coming back. It worked in a tactical sense, as he won Michigan, but it was a low moment, and it didn't help Romney in the longer view.

I don't think that's a mortal wound, however. Romney exudes sleaze, yes. But he also exudes a bare minimum of competence and intelligence, and he has a legitimately impressive business background. That would serve him well in a hypothetical general election showdown with Obama.

Let's be blunt here: Obama's a better candidate and politician than anyone in this field. The only chance the GOP has to beat him in 2012 is if the economy remains in a torpor or if Obama's repeatedly bungled a series of foreign crises. (And the latter might not even be enough. Bush won re-election in 2004 despite 9/11 and the disaster in Iraq) If that's the case, it's eminetly possible that voters will swallow their personal distaste for Romney and vote for the guy who knows what a derivative is.

If Romney's impressive chameleon impression is his second-biggest flaw, his biggest is that he's a better general election candidate than a primary candidate. The conservative base embraced Romney late in the process, once it became clear that McCain had the nomination within his reach, but it was an awkward, resentful hug. Romney's still going to be a Mormon in 2012, and there's little reason to think that will become more acceptable to the religious base in four years time.

Oh, and Romney kind of sucks as a politician. I'm not sure how a guy who gets elected twice to be governor of Massachusetts is so comically tone deaf, but Romney pulls it off.

Sarah Palin
I've made it abundantly clear that Governor Palin is way up there on my list of least favorite people. But strictly within the context of a Republican primary, she's a force to be reckoned with. She would electrify the base like no one else, and if she's smart enough to hire the right advisers, she might be able to turn that energy into a fund-raising and organizational machine modeled on the 2008 Obama operation. In places like Iowa, where organization and energy are key, she could be a dynamo.

The Republican intelligentsia hates her, considers her a toxin in the party's veins and would undoubtedly devote all their efforts to keep her from becoming the new standard-bearer. The party's corporate underwriters aren't going to embrace her until they absolutely have to. She wouldn't have an easy road. But it's easy to imagine her blowing out the field in Iowa, ignoring New Hampshire, rolling to victory in conservative South Carolina and positioning herself as the early frontrunner. And if there's one thing the Republican Party hates, it's a brutal, drawn-out internecine struggle for the nomination. If she pulls off what I just described, there's going to be a lot of pressure to jump on the Palin bandwagon.

If Romney's a better general election candidate than a primary candidate, Palin's facing the opposite problem. She might seem genuine, but she doesn't exude competence or intelligence. And if the conditions in 2012 are difficult enough to make the public reconsider Obama, the American people aren't going to be in any mood to trust a crisis to someone like Palin. And I don't think there's anything she can do in four years to transform her image into that of a pragmatic, competent problem solver.

Mike Huckabee
Palin and Huckabee are the only two Republicans to come out of the 2008 campaign at a higher level than the one at which they began it. For Palin, that comes with certain caveats. More people like her than did before McCain chose her and she has far more influence than she used to, but she's also built up a healthy unfavorability rating with everyone outside the Republican base.

Huckabee, by contrast, is relatively well-liked by everyone and loathed by no one. He has that unique gift for packaging fairly immoderate positions (revoking the income tax, among others) in a pleasing package. Huckabee's a comforting politician: he speaks softly, with genuine wit and humor. He talks eloquently about sensitivity and decency and reforming the Republican Party so that it centers on those concepts.

For those reasons, as well as for concerns about his fiscal discipline, he was never embraced by the religious base to which he was supposed to appeal. The big money pillars of the party didn't like him very much. Really, his biggest fans were in the travelling press corps, and that's another easy way of guaranteeing distrust from conservatives.

Still, he seems more acceptable to primary voters than Romney and more attractive to general election voters than Palin, though he'll be hurt by the long, intense media scrutiny of his positions that comes after winning the party's nomination. My favorite Republican, though that means nothing.

Bobby Jindal
Jindal's greatest appeal is that he played no part in the 2008 debacle. He's not tarred by any of the 500 hundreds little defeats the party suffered this cycle. If the party needs a fresh face, there are fewer visages fresher or more appealing than Jindal's.

Jindal's very conservative: the National Right to Life Committee gives him a 100 percent pro-life voting record for his time in Congress, and Governor Jindal does not support any exceptions to the pro-life position. All of that, as well as his deep religious faith, will appeal to the Republican base.

It might give him trouble in the general election: the country is deeply divided on the abortion question, but most Americans support some exceptions to a ban on abortions. Obama's team would undoubtedly have a bevvy of ads attacking Jindal's position, as well as an army of female surrogates who would hit the morning shows and speak at rallies.

But I go back to what I wrote earlier: if the circumstances are such in 2012 that the Republicans actually have a chance to beat Obama, ideology might be less of a concern for voters than competence. And Jindal has a number of those bullet points on his resume: an efficient evacution before Hurricane Gustav, balancing the budget of the Louisiana Department of Health and Hospitals when he was its head, etc.

If nothing else, nominating Jindal would be a nice way for the party to prove that it's not a collection of old white guys stuck in Nixon's culture wars. (Put your hand down, Governor Palin) It would take at least a little of the moral highground from the Democrats on the diversity issue, though I suspect the Dems aren't going to let anyone forget that they nominated and elected the first African-American president in American history.

Furcalled From Atlanta

2008-12-17T21:49:00.003-06:00

Well, that'll teach me to jump the gun.

Rafael Furcal is not returning to Atlanta. Once again, this isn't official just yet, and we saw what happened the last time I jumped on an unofficial Furcal story, but it seems safe to say that this one is a done deal.

The Braves' agreement with Furcal quite obviously was not. There's been a lot of talk about the "term sheet" Frank Wren sent to Paul Kinzer, Furcal's agent, early Tuesday morning. According to Dave O'Brien of The Atlanta Journal-Constitution, these sheets are considered "gold" in the baseball community. Agents don't request them unless they consider a deal struck. Kinzer isn't explicitly denying that Wren sent him the term sheet, but he emphasized that he didn't have a "signed contract" with the Braves.

There's going to be an annoying back-and-forth over the next few days between Kinzer and the Braves, but right now the most logical interpretation is that Kinzer used the Braves to extract more money and more years out of the Dodgers. (LA was unwilling to guarantee a third year before these last couple of days) This is a high-powered game Kinzer and Wren are playing, so it's probably naive to express shock when an agent pulls something like this kind of thing for a client. Furcal quite clearly didn't want to leave Los Angeles, which I guess is understandable. Some people find sitting in traffic very calming.

But this has been an infuriating off-season, with Wren unable to close the deal on a few big-time transactions. First it was withdrawing from the Jake Peavy talks. Then it was getting out-bid by the Yankees for AJ Burnett. And now the mess with Furcal.

Taken individually, none of those are disastrous and all are understandable. Kevin Towers was asking for a pound of flesh in exchange for Peavy, and Wren made the logical decision to keep his skin intact. Lots of teams have been out-bid by the Yankees, and I can't say it fills me with sadness to know the Braves won't be paying Burnett $16 million a year for the next five seasons. And Wren certainly seems to have done everything right in trying to sign Furcal; if he doesn't want to leave LA, he doesn't want to leave LA, and nothing short of an absurd contract would entice him to do so. Besides all that, as I wrote yesterday, I'm not even sure Furcal is better than incumbent shortstop Yunel Escobar.

But when you come into the off-season with set goals, money to spend and a solid minor league system to draw upon, it's at once perplexing and distressing when no one seems willing to take your cash. Wren's throwing money at players, but no one's biting.

There's a bigger problem here, namely, Atlanta's repeated issues with agents. It was no secret that John Schuerholz loathed Scott Boras in the last several years of his tenure, and Boras made no secret of the fact that the feeling was mutual. Considering that Boras represents some of the best players in the game and that Schuerholz, despite his feelings, kept trading for his clients, that was inconvenient.

Still, everyone hates Boras and certain teams refuse to deal with him at all. But now it seems like there's yet another agent the Braves have on their verboten list. This is growing tiresome.

Again, all of these incidents have reasonable explanations. Boras held a grudge against Schuerholz for going behind his back and signing Andruw Jones to an extension back in 2001 by dealing with Andruw's father. And now Kinzer pulls this stint.

Ultimately, however, the agent works for the player. If Furcal wanted to be a Brave, he'd be a Brave. Atlanta wanted him and had the money to give him a reasonable offer. No, Rafael Furcal just did not want to be a Brave. And that raises troublesome questions about the state of the franchise and the way in which the rest of baseball regards it.

Where do the Braves go from here? Damned if I know. They're still looking for that second pitcher, and Wren keeps saying he wants a power bat in the outfield. Derrick Lowe and Ben Sheets are possibilities for that first criteria, but no realistic names have been raised to fill the second. (The Braves aren't signing Pat Burrell.)

It wouldn't be a disaster if the Braves whiffed on all those names and went into spring training intent on a full rebuilding effort. They could draw final conclusions on the futures of young pitchers Jo Jo Reyes and Charlie Morton and perhaps break in top prospects Jordan Schafer and Tommy Hanson. That might be a recipe for 100 losses, a tough pill to swallow for this organization, but sometimes you suffer today in the hope your future will be bright.

Of course, if the Braves end up doing that, the Javier Vazquez trade is going to look utterly pointless. Much like the entire off-season.

Furcalled Back to Atlanta

2008-12-16T16:00:00.003-06:00

The deal isn't officially official yet, but all indications are that Rafael Furcal is returning to Atlanta on a three-year deal. Details are obviously sketchy right now, but various reports say that the contract costs about $30 million and includes a vesting option for the fourth year. Furcal's still in the Dominican Republic, his agent says there's no agreement yet and Furcal would still have to pass a physical, no small thing for a player who missed most of 2008 with a back injury.

It's an interesting move, those caveats notwithstanding. I don't know if Furcal's actually better than Yunel Escobar at this point. Furcal's a better baserunner, and he was having a great season (.357/.439/.573) before the back injury struck him down. But Escobar hit .288/.366/.401 as a 25 year old, and according to The Fielding Bible, he was the second-best defensive shortstop in the game, making 21 plays more than the average shortstop. Furcal's at an age where he's likely to decline, and Escobar's not in danger of falling off the cliff any time soon.

So the question then becomes what happens in the middle infield. Furcal's agent says that the Braves have talked to his client about moving to second base, which would leave Escobar entrenched at short and shift Kelly Johnson back to left field. It seems like a rather crummy thing to do to Johnson, who battled the outfield to a draw in 2005, moved to second base in 2007 and adapted to a difficult position with relative alacrity and adroitness.

Mark Bowman, who covers the Braves for MLB.com and usually serves as a shill for the organization, says that's the plan. It's an appealing idea, because it allows the Braves to keep Escobar and Johnson, bring Furcal into the fold and move a competent bat to the outfield. Johnson had a 108 OPS+ last year, which isn't particularly good for a corner outfielder, but he'll be just 27 next year and can look forward to some improvement. And when you've watched Gregor Blanco, Jeff Francoeur and Matt Diaz flail around at the plate, the idea of getting some production from the outfield is appealing.

Notwithstanding all that, however, an Escobar trade seems to be a distinct possibility. He was the centerpiece of the Jake Peavy talks. While all reports say that the Braves and Padres have not re-ignited those conversations, doing so is as simple as pressing a few buttons on a cell phone. In this scenario, the "Furcal to second, Johnson to left" chatter is a clever little headfake designed to give Frank Wren some plausible deniability in those trade talks.

"Escobar? Yeah, I might be willing to trade him. Don't need to. We'll just move Furcal to second, Johnson to left and keep Yunel at short. You know, now that I say it aloud, that sounds like a really good idea. I'll talk to you later Opposing General Manager, I have to go draw up a 36-year contract extention for Escobar."

Wren is still looking for that second starting pitcher, and Escobar's his best asset in that quest. If the Braves sign Frank Wolf or some other random shlub, it's probably an indicator that Escobar and Johnson are sticking around for awhile. (One of them could still go in a deal for a slugging outfielder)

The Politics of "Terror."

2008-12-14T13:21:00.005-06:00

Interesting column today from The New York Times' public editor, Clark Hoyt. Hoyt writes about an issue that's been a sore spot for me for a long time, so I gobbled this up eagerly.

When should journalists describe purveyors of violence as "terrorists" and when should they use the less polarizing "militants?" What attacks on civilians are "terrorism?" What are "terrorist groups" and what are "militant groups" or "extremist groups?"

Those questions have bedeviled reporters for years, specifically as it regards the Israeli-Palestinian conflicts. Hoyt spends the first half of his column on the Mumbai attacks, but it becomes clear pretty quickly that most reporters had no problems affixing the terrorism label there. The real controversy in the piece is in Hoyt's description of The Times' attitude toward the Middle East.

"Terrorism" is a tricky word for journalists because there's a moral judgment inherent in its use, and reporters aren't comfortable making moral judgments in complex situations. It puts the writer on a ledge, clearly labeling one side as wrong and the other as right. That cuts against the grain of years of training.

Some organizations have solved that dilemma by deciding that they will not use any form of the word "terror" to describe Palestinian attacks on Israeli civilians. The BBC is the biggest offender here, but Reuters acts similarly. This isn't objectivity; it's gutless, spineless, soulless "journalism" of the worst kind, sapping the humanity out of reporters and draining the outrage from stories that frankly demand a little righteous indignation.

Yes, "terrorist" has strong implications, but blowing yourself up on a school bus or shooting rockets into a major city is a strong act. It seems inconceivable to use the polite word choice in describing those who would commit such crimes.

The Times' approach is more nuanced than the BBC's; they (accurately) described Samir Kuntar as a terrorist. The usage is not universal: Hoyt quotes a memo on the subject written by James Bennet, the editor of The Atlantic and formerly The Times' Jerusalem bureau chief. Bennet wrote that he initially refused to use the word "terrorism," instead relying on a vivid description of the act in question to get the point across. Bennet eventually changed his mind, saying that "felt so morally neutral as to be a little sickening."

So far so good. But Bennet's memo goes off the rails when he settles on the following rough rule:

He would use the words, when they fit, to describe attacks within Israel’s 1948 borders but not in the occupied West Bank or Gaza, which Israel and the Palestinians have been contending over since Israel took them in 1967. When a gunman infiltrated a settlement and killed a 5-year-old girl in her bed, Bennet did not call it terrorism. “All I could do was default to my first approach and describe the attack and the victims as vividly as I could.”

Hoyt disagrees, and I'm with him. However, I'll go even further than Hoyt: Bennet's attitude here is, frankly, disgusting and more than a little horrific.

Every reporter, every writer, knows that his words have deep implications. I talked about that already; many journalists refuse to use the word "terrorism" because the implication is that the so-described act is morally unjustifiable and that those hurt by the attack are innocents undeserving of the violence.

Describing an attacker as a "militant" or...well, as an "attacker" and refusing to use the word "terrorism" sends a different kind of message. No one would be so harsh as to claim that Bennet thinks the five-year-old girl deserved her fate.

But in some small, perhaps even miniscule, way, Bennet, by refusing to describe brutal acts of terrorism in the West Bank as terrorism, is saying that little girl was less a victim than an individual in Tel Aviv or a Manhattan office worker on September 11. In that small, perhaps miniscule way, he's saying that acts of violence directed at civilians in the West Bank are more justifiable than the attacks in Mumbai.

It might be small or even miniscule, but linguistic wars are usually fought over inches, not miles. Language is the only weapon a reporter has, and those small distinctions between words make all the difference in the moral tone of a piece.

I'm not ignorant of the complexities in this conflict. I don't think every Israeli wears a white hat and every Palestinian a black hat. But for all the gray in the region, there has to be at least a little good and a little evil. And it seems that everyone in a civilized world should look with disgust at the murder of a five-year-old girl in her bed, no matter if she lives in a West Bank settlement. If we can't condemn that, if we can't unequivocally call that unjustifiable slaughter "terrorism," then we've fallen so far into soulless moral relativism as to eviscerate any moral fabric that still remains in this world.

I don't agree with everything Hoyt says in the column. The Times refuses to call Hamas a terrorist organization, and Hoyt agrees with that decision. It's worth noting that Israel and the US aren't the only countries to call Hamas a terrorist organization. The European Union, frequently hostile to Israel, uses that label, as does Canada. So Hamas as a terrorist group is not a fringe view held by a paranoid Likud government and a US State Department in the thrall of the Elders of Zion.

To the consternation of many, the Times does not call Hamas a terrorist organization, though it does sponsor acts of terror against Israel. Hamas was elected to govern Gaza. It provides social services and operates charities, hospitals and clinics. Corbett said: "You get to the question: Somebody works in a Hamas clinic - is that person a terrorist? We don't want to go there." I think that is right.

("Corbett" is Phil Corbett, the deputy to news editor Paul Winfield.)

This argument is staggeringly unpersuasive. Hamas is an organization that repeatedly and unapologetically launched suicide attacks aimed at innocent Israeli civilians. (James Bennet will be satisfied to hear that many of those civilians live in Israel proper, so they truly are innocent civilians, instead of slightly-less-innocent five-year-old girls in the West Bank.) It's an organization that has killed women and children and bragged about it. By Hoyt's admission, it sponsors terrorism. It is a terrorist organization.

Yes, it runs the Gaza government and administers various hospitals and charities. That does not change the fact that Hamas is a terrorist organization, any more than Al Capone's mob protecting downtrodden Italian families in Chicago and handing out Christmas geese made it less of a mob engaged in organized crime.

Corbett's logic doesn't follow. Is the doctor working at a Hamas-run clinic a terrorist? No, because he doesn't engage in terroristic acts. He doesn't try to kill Israeli civilians and terrorize the government into enacting policies he wants. You can construct an argument where everyone who helps Hamas gain the approval of the Gaza citizenry is a terrorist, but no one makes that claim, and to use that extreme distortion of logic to justify a morally neutral label for Hamas is, again, spineless.

Burnett? More like BurNOT a Brave!

2008-12-13T13:17:00.002-06:00

Braves lose AJ Burnett to Yankees.

I have two reactions to this news:

1. God, I hate those freaking Yankees.

2. God, I love those freaking Yankees.

The Braves came into the off-season intent on adding two relatively top-flight starters. If you stretch the definition of "relatively top-flight starter" to its breaking point, Javier Vazquez probably qualifies as the first. That second starter, it seems, is going to be harder to find.

Frank Wren first struck out on Jake Peavy, understandable considering how intransigent Padres GM Kevin Towers has been in those negotiations. Burnett was at the top of Wren's free agent shopping list and was probably Plan A before Towers decided to shop Peavy.

I hate those freaking Yankees because, while I've never been a salary cap proponent, it's infuriating to watch them swoop in and sign without a second thought a player who would be a massive expenditure for Atlanta. And after signing the best starting pitcher on the market (CC Sabathia), inking the second-best pitcher just seems overkill and...well, unfair. It'll be even more galling if New York signs Derek Lowe, the third-best pitcher available and possibly Plan C for Wren. (I'm hoping for Ben Sheets, though if you think Burnett's a health risk...) If Sheets and Lowe don't work out, Wren will probably turn to Randy Wolf, and no matter how far you stretch the definition of "top-flight starter," Randy Wolf sure as hell doesn't fit.

On the other hand, I love those freaking Yankees because I don't know that a team in the Braves' situation needs to throw $80 million and five years (Atlanta's reported best offer) at a 32-year-old pitcher who's thrown 200 innings just three times in his career. (Two of those coming in free agent walk years) $80 million is no big thing for the Yankees; should Burnett tank in New York, it will annoy the various Steinbrenners, but it'll be just that: an annoyance. With overflowing revenue streams pouring into the Bronx from the YES Network and a new Yankee Stadium, the Yankees can throw money around with only perfunctory thoughts given to the possible consequences. Ultimately, that's the difference between the Yankees and a team like the Braves: an AJ Burnett-sized mistake would cripple Atlanta for half a decade. It wouldn't faze the Yankees.

In that respect, the Braves got lucky here. Burnett's fragility is somewhat overstated, but there's no denying that he's a risk. It might be a risk worth taking if the Braves were one pitcher away from contention, but to repeat something I've written before, Atlanta is not Javier Vazquez and AJ Burnett away from competing with the Phillies and Mets. And I don't know that the Braves can count on Burnett being a big part of their next championship team.

According to Braves.com, Atlanta's rotation right now is Vasquez-Jair Jurrjens-Jorge Campillo-Jo Jo Reyes-Charlie Morton, with James Parr hoping to break in to that gang. Considering how bad Reyes and Morton were last year, it's probably not a good idea to rely on both of them. Slotting one veteran pitcher into the rotation behind Vazquez and Jurrjens would move Campillo to the fourth position and let the Parr/Morton/Reyes threesome battle it out in spring training. Wolf's not a particularly good pitcher, but on a one-year contract, there's no real harm bringing him into the fold.

Starkville: The Mogadishu of the United States

2008-12-10T15:37:00.002-06:00

No official announcement yet, but by every indication UF offensive coordinator Dan Mullen will be the new head coach at Mississippi State.

I'll get into the ramifications of that in a minute, but I do want to write a few lines about Mullen's evolution. He's incredibly young by football standards, only 36, and when he came over with Urban Meyer from Utah in 2005 he was just 33. The Gators' offense in that 2005 season was pathetic, and not just in comparison to the high-flying Spurrier days. UF was 61st in the country in total offense, 56th in rushing. Poor Chris Leak tried to adapt to a foreign offense while running for his life behind a porous line that allowed 35 sacks on the year. It all culminated in a mid-season loss to LSU that featured what had to have been one of the worst offensive performances in Florida history. Mullen was not a popular guy in Gator Nation after that season.

He wasn't substantially more popular in 2006 despite the national championship. UF's offense, while statistically superior and notably more explosive than the 2005 unit, was inconsistent, as was the quality of Mullen's play-calling. He'd call a great game (the first half of the loss to Auburn) only to degenerate into predictability and ineffectiveness. (The second half of the loss to Auburn, the third quarter of the SEC Championship Game against Arkansas)

The talk died down slightly in 2007 as the Tim Tebow-led offense racked up huge numbers. Tebow won the Heisman and gave much of the credit to Mullen, who also acts as Florida's QB coach. Some still grumbled, as UF's offense sputtered in the fourth quarter of every one of the team's four losses, but it was hard to criticize him.

That criticism exploded to the fore this year after the Mississippi loss and actually intensified further after UF's relatively unimpressive victory over Arkansas. It was no longer possible to rationalize the offense's failings; the 2005 team had an awful line and precious few wide receivers of any value. The 2008 squad had all the talent needed to be a behemoth and Mullen was in the SEC long enough to know how to call plays in the conference. Mullen was dangerously close to falling off the cliff.

Then came the flawless win over LSU, a win that was followed by an extraordinary stretch of dominating football. And all of a sudden, the offensive coordinator of that juggernaut became a highly valued commodity.

It will be a struggle for Mullen at Mississippi State. Ole Miss is a much more prestigious university, has a much more prestigious football team and is, in innumerable ways, a more desirable place than MSU. He's not taking over a talent laden team, and the Bulldogs don't have the playmakers to successfully run a spread offense.

The more immediate concern is how this announcement will affect Florida in the National Championship Game. (Wooo!) As The Gainesville Sun story I linked indicated, there's as yet no word on whether Mullen will stick around for the game. I suspect he will. The pundits are already drawing comparisons to Mark Richt in 2000, when he took the Georgia job while preparing Florida State's gameplan for the national championship game against... Oklahoma. (Seriously, this is some Twilight Zone stuff) FSU's previously explosive offense sputtered, scoring zero points in FSU's 13-2 loss.

On the other hand, Bo Pellini took the Nebraska job while preparing LSU's defense for last year's championship game and the Tigers dominated Ohio State. And Urban Meyer himself served two masters in late 2004, preparing his Utah team for the Fiesta Bowl while recruiting for Florida. Utah eviscerated Pittsburgh, though that Panthers squad was probably the worst team to ever play in a BCS bowl. So there are certainly some positive precedents here.

It's hard to say until the details are clear, but if you figure that Mullen's departure was essentially inevitable, than this is as good a time as any for it to happen. It's early in the process, and you can hope (pray?) that the media will exhaust its distraction questions relatively soon. Better to deal with questions about whether this will distract the team than to answer "will he or won't he" questions with non-denial denials for the next month.

Officially Official, Part 2

2008-12-08T16:25:00.002-06:00

Greg Maddux retired today, making official what agent Scot Boras announced a few days ago. This is the second time in five years I’ve had to write a sad, sad Maddux-related song.

It was roughly this time five years ago that the Braves declined to offer Maddux salary arbitration, ending his decade-long tenure with Atlanta. At the time, I didn’t know what hurt more: the fact that the Braves waved goodbye to my favorite player, that it was the right thing to do (Maddux’s stats were slipping while his age kept creeping upward) or the fact that so few Braves fans seemed to care all that much. When Tom Glavine left in 2002 there was an uproar, and Maddux was always a better pitcher than Glavine.

I suppose I should have been happy that most fans were looking at this fairly objectively and not succumbing to the emotion of the moment. And yet it’s more than a little discouraging that Greg Maddux could pitch brilliantly in Atlanta for a decade and not inspire any kind of fanatical devotion. In fact, Maddux never seemed to inspire any great degree of loyalty from the masses of fans. I suppose it’s because of the way Maddux pitched; even in his truly dominant days he never LOOKED truly dominant. To ask a fan to remember Maddux’s greatness is to ask them to remember events that never happened: remember the home runs he never gave up because he was so good at keeping the ball down, remember the walks he never issued because he had such exquisite command of everything he threw, remember the pitches he never had to throw because he was so efficient.

In a bizarre kind of way, even his respectable strikeout numbers worked against him. Maddux struck out 6.05 batters per nine innings and pitched long enough to rack up more strikeouts than all but 10 pitchers in the history of Major League Baseball. He certainly would have earned more gasps had he struck out a greater number, but I think he would have been a greater curiosity if he had success without striking anyone out. Extremes are interesting. They grab our attention and our memories and they don’t let go. A fireballing strikeout artist? Fascinating. A soft-tosser who couldn’t strike out a Little Leaguer? Fascinating. But Maddux never pitched to the poles. He occupied his own, dominant center, striking out five or six and inducing a collection of yawn-inducing groundballs.

It’s more than just that, of course. There was the whole Javy Lopez issue, which seems to have angered a large segment of the Braves’ fanbase enough that Maddux has been truly tainted in their eyes. One would think that if the price of watching one of the greatest pitchers of all-time practice his craft for a decade was having to watch Paul Bako try to hit every fifth day, it would be an easy bill to pay. Evidently not. And it’s not like Maddux is the first Hall of Famer to have a personal catcher. Steve Carlton’s insistence on throwing to his own catcher unleashed Tim McCarver on an unsuspecting public. Men have been convicted of crimes against humanity for less than that.

“Experts” will bring up Maddux’s postseason won/loss record. Constantly. And they will use that laughably flawed statistic in a pathetic attempt to prove that somehow Maddux choked in clutch situations or that he simply isn’t cut out to pitch in the postseason, as if it’s Maddux’s fault that the Braves couldn’t touch Mark Prior or Orlando Hernandez.

And so we had this most bizarre of situations: one of the greatest pitcher’s of all-time is about to leave and most fans seem happy about it. Hardly any mourned the loss; just a few dorky kids who thought they saw in Maddux the slightest glimmer of themselves.

For them- ok, for us -Maddux was a great pitcher, yes. But he was more than that. He was the personification of the idea that greatness doesn’t have a preferred aesthetic; it could be short and near-sighted and more than a little overweight. He was a constant reminder that brilliance didn’t need to always roar and shout at the top of its lungs in a perpetual attention grab; it could be quiet and understated and yet still be as fiercely dedicated as any of the screamers.

Maddux was the pitcher for those of us who were cursed to love a game we could not play, the talent deprived multitude who watch with as much passion as anyone else.

That’s ridiculous of course and is brutally unfair to Maddux. He’s more talented than 99% of the human beings on the face of the Earth, and has a stronger arm than any of us could ever dream of.

And yet that feeling is still there when we watch Maddux slice through an inning in 8 pitches and then see Jorge Julio’s 97 MPH fastballs end up in the left field seats. It was terribly inspiring.

I can’t exactly say that Maddux has been overlooked by the national media. He won four Cy Youngs and 18 Gold Gloves and made eight All Star games. He’ll win election to the Hall of Fame with an overwhelming majority. So it’s not like he’s gone under-the-radar.

But the acknowledgments of Maddux’s brilliance always seemed perfunctory, as if the sheer of force of his brilliance forced the pundits’ hands. They’d give their praise, shake their heads at his body of work and then move on to a more explosive personality, a more interesting character; Clemens or Pedro or any of a dozen others.

That makes this day a sad one, but also a satisfying one, because it’s his day and no one else’s. The cameras are on Maddux. He’s the topic of conversation. It’s not what he has ever wanted, but it’s certainly what he deserves.

Officially Official

2008-12-07T20:45:00.003-06:00

Florida to face Oklahoma in the National Championship Game. The first time these schools will play each other.

There's obviously a lot of time before January 8 to analyze the match-up, but here's what I've come up with off the top of my head: both teams have such explosive offenses that the team that can make an occasional stop will win. And Florida's got a better defense than Oklahoma. The question is whether the difference between UF's offense and Oklahoma's defense is greater than the difference between Oklahoma's offense and UF's defense.

Florida 31, Alabama 20

2008-12-06T18:36:00.003-06:00

I don't know if Tim Tebow is going to win the Heisman this year. I don't know if, strictly speaking, he deserves. Graham Harrell, Sam Bradford and Colt McCoy are extraordinary quarterbacks, and if you want to say that any of them should win the award this year, I won't argue.

But there is no one on Earth I'd rather have quarterbacking my alma mater.

All the hype, all the fawning adulation Gator fans were accused of showering on Tebow, it was justified. All of it. If there was any doubt of that before tonight, if a Heisman Trophy and otherworldly numbers and a laudable personal life were not enough to convince you, Tebow made skepticism untenable with his performance. Florida won the SEC Championship and almost certainly earned another berth in a national championship game because of Tebow.

He had help, of course. Jeff Demps didn't do anything spectacular, but the diminutive true freshman carried the load as Florida's primary running back. Riley Cooper caught two huge passes, including the game clinching touchdown. Aaron Hernandez took a shovel pass and rumbled for a crucial first down and also climbed the ladder to make a wonderful catch. And senior Louis Murphy played brilliantly in his final conference game.

But this was Tebow's night. Much was made about the lack of a fourth quarter comeback on Tebow's resume; he had never won a game when Florida trailed at any point in the fourth quarter. Well, the Gators entered the fourth quarter trailing 20-17, thanks to a dominating and demoralizing performance by Alabama in the third quarter. The Tide started the second half down 17-10, but rolled up and down the field on UF's depleted defensive line, keeping Tebow and UF's offense off the field. Alabama running back Glen Coffee rolled through the massive holes his offensive line opened, and the Gators could not cover freshman phenom Julio Jones.

And with his arm and with his legs Tebow hauled Florida to a championship. Percy Harvin didn't set foot on the field, and UF's offense definitely suffered for it. As mentioned, Demps couldn't find much running room. Chris Rainey was surprisingly absent from the game plan, carrying the ball only once. Brandon James was ineffective. Even Louis Murphy carried the ball for the first time all year. It was on Tebow to perform magic; he carried the ball 17 times and completed 14 passes in 22 attempts for 216 yards and three touchdowns.

With 14:42 left in the game, Florida took over at its own 38. 11 plays (nine rushes) and 5:47 later, Tebow pitched to Demps on the option for a short touchdown. The Gators took a 24-20 lead and Alabama would get the ball back with 9:21 to go.

It was then that Florida's defensive line, ravaged by injuries and pushed all game by Alabama's o-line, rose to the challenge and finally grabbed the sputtering torch left by the dominant 2006 defense. On 3rd and 8, Jermaine Cunningham sacked Alabama QB John Parker-Wilson for a loss of 11 yards. The Tide punted.

Alabama's defense, 70,000 people in the Georgia Dome and everyone watching at home waited for Florida to grind out a long drive with just 7:27 left in the game. Instead, after gaining a first down on the ground, offensive coordinator Dan Mullen put the ball in the air. Tebow connected with Murphy on a beautiful 33-yard fade route down the right sideline. On the next play, Tebow rifled a pass high to Hernandez, who made the biggest catch of his life in leaping high in the Georgia sky and reeling in the throw for 15 yards.

Tebow carved his legacy into granite in the plays that followed. He gained five yards on first and goal from the Alabama six, but a sideline infraction pushed Florida back five yards. Demps was stuffed on 2nd and goal.

But on 3rd and goal, Tebow hit his roommate Cooper on a perfectly thrown slant pattern in the endzone. Alabama had some time left, but Joe Haden intercepted Parker-Wilson on a desperation throw on the next drive.

Tim Tebow was the star tonight, but I have to give myself some props as well. Before the Florida basketball team's 2006 National Championship Game against UCLA, I raced do a university convenience store and bought a one pound value bag of Rold Gold pretzels. A year later, I bought the same pretzels at the Macclenny Super Wal-Mart.

I broke out the Gator Good Luck Pretzels again tonight. And again, they came through. You better believe I'm buying a back before the national championship game, assuming the Gators reach that point.

SEC Championship Preview

2008-12-05T00:04:00.003-06:00

This Alabama-Florida match-up is catnip for the media because it perfectly fits into the kind of black and white, dichotomous narrative that makes for great (and easy) copy.

Alabama! Old-school! Tradition! Bear Bryant!

Florida! Nouveau riche! Fresh! Rash!

Alabama! Smash mouth! GamesAreWonInTheTrenches! Tough!

Florida! Finessee! Speed! Gimmicky offense! Five wide receivers...five wide receivers!

The stories practically write themselves. It's like a kid's movie. One team pounds the ball behind a massive offensive line, suffocates opposing offenses and grinds them into dust. The other team uses clever formations and pure speed to run by defenses and leave them gasping for air.

But in a shocking development, things are rarely so simple. Alabama is the team committed to the running game and pounding the ball, except Florida has the 10th-best running game in the country while Alabama checks in at 22nd. Alabama's all about defense while Florida's team revolves around a high-powered offense, except the Gators actually have the 7th best defense in the country. (Alabama's better, to be sure) Alabama has the dominant offensive line in this game, anchored by future NFL star Andre Smith, except Florida has allowed one fewer sack than the Crimson Tide. Alabama has the dominant defensive line and Saban's a master at crafting exotic blitz packages that put QBs to the turf, except Florida ranks 23rd in the country in sacks while Bama checks in at 57th. Those exotic blitz packages cause turnovers, but it's Florida that's third in the country in turnovers forced, while Alabama is just 40th.

But the narrative has a force and power all its own, so we get smash mouth v. finesse. (Ask SEC defensive backs if they see any element of finesse with Tim Tebow) We also get a lot of talk about Florida's injuries, but maybe not the most important ones.

Most of the attention has focused on Percy Harvin and his trick ankle, which he sprained against FSU. In another shocking development, Urban Meyer has been relatively tight-lipped about his star. It's a high ankle sprain, but that's about all we know. Meyer won't say whether Harvin will play Saturday; he's one of those infamous "game time decisions." All that said, I can't imagine Percy is going to sit this one out. He was huge in the 2006 SEC Championship Game and the Georgia Dome turf can only make him more dangerous. The question isn't whether he'll play, but rather how effective he'll be, and there's no way to answer that. Without information it's impossible to make an informed guess; Harvin could be anything from a barely mobile decoy to a fully armed and operational battle station.

Harvin's an extraordinary player, but Meyer can come close to replicating his contributions with Jeff Demps and Chris Rainey. More of a concern is the defensive line, where two players (Matt Patchan and Brandon Antwine) are out for the season after suffering serious injuries; Antwine joins Florida's lengthy list of ACL tears. Lawrence Marsh is apparently back at 100 percent after playing through pain against Florida State. Against a team with Alabama's rushing attack, that could prove troublesome.

Offensively, the Gators have established the much ballyhooed "identity." Florida's a running team with the ability to go to the air if needed. As mentioned above, UF has the 10th-best rushing attack in the country, and four of the teams ahead of the Gators feature option attacks and never throw the ball. Considering Saban's vaunted ability to to scheme confusing defenses, I see no reason to expect Florida to start throwing the ball around the field as an homage to Steve Spurrier.

While Florida's running game features some traditional option and other plays that get Demps, Rainey and Harvin on the perimeter, the Gators generally run between the tackles, even with the diminutive freshmen. But Alabama can challenge that gameplan like no one else Florida has played. Massive defensive tackle Terrance Cody is almost guaranteed to occupy two of Florida's interior linemen. He's a disruptive force, and if Florida was playing 'Bama at the beginning of the season, when UF had serious issues on the offensive line, he'd probably tear a bloody swath through the Gators. Fortunately Carl Johnson has stepped in at left guard and stabilized the interior line.

I'm predicting a 24-20 win for Florida. This is a dramatic over-simplification, but I think it comes down to this: Alabama has a great defense. Florida has a great defense. Florida has a great offense. Alabama does not.

In other words, Florida can match Alabama's strength. Alabama cannot say the same thing.

They Have Had Good Luck With Players Named Javier

2008-12-02T23:15:00.002-06:00

The Javier Vazquez deal seems pretty much official at this point. Atlanta Journal-Constitution writer David O'Brien says the Braves are giving up minor leaguers Brent Lillibridge, Jon Gilmore, Santos Rodriguez and Tyler Flowers for Vazquez and left-handed reliever Boone Logan. Those names aren't officially official yet, but O'Brien's awfully good at his job, so I'll work under the assumption that he's right here.

The Braves have coveted Vazquez for years, dating back to 2002, when they reportedly refused to trade Horacio Ramirez for him. So the fact that Vasquez is finally a Brave isn't much of a surprise; he was destined to spend time in Atlanta, if only when he turned 42 and started casting about for NRIs.

Fortunately it didn't come to that. Vazquez has never lived up to either his stuff or his peripherals. He had a 4.67 ERA last year despite 200 strikeouts in 208 1/3 innings. His career ERA of 4.32 (just five percent better than league average) is well above what his strikeout rate and K/BB ratio would indicate.

A lot of that is tied up in his home run rate; he's given up more than one home run per 10 innings in every year of his career. Moving away from the American League and New Comiskey Park and setting up shop in Turner Field should help there. What Vasquez does do with consistency is eat innings; since 2000 his lowest innings pitched total is 198, and he's usually well above 210. For a Braves team that's had serious issues keeping pitchers healthy and taking their turn in the rotation, Vazquez's reliability will be helpful.

The biggest loss in the group going to Chicago is Flowers, a powerful catching prospect whose name was thrown around in the aborted Jake Peavy discussions. Flowers hit .288/.427/.494 in the hitter's hell that is Myrtle Beach; he was slightly old for the league, but he backed up that performance by going to the Arizona Fall League and clobbering the pitching there.

Losing Flowers stings. GM Frank Wren can rationalize trading him by pointing out that the Braves have a 24-year-old All Star locked into the catcher's position for the next decade or so. That certainly makes Flowers more expendable. But he was hardly locked into the first base position; Flowers has played 92 games at first base in his minor league career, and playing that position he could conceivably have made it to Atlanta in 2009. It would have required a scorching start in AA and yet more struggles for Casey Kotchman, but it was possible.

Wren's fears on that score were undoubtedly somewhat assuaged by the presence of Freddie Freeman, an 18 year old who put up an .899 OPS in Low-A ball.

The other big loss is shortstop Brent Lillibridge. Lillibridge came over from the Pirates in the January 2007 Adam LaRoche-Mike Gonzalez trade. At that time he was a speedy shortstop with impressive plate discipline and surprising pop. But after two years in the Braves system his best performance came at Richmond in 2007 where he put up an unimpressive .287/.331/.436 line.

His performance cratered last year. He struggled mightily in Atlanta, and that garnered most of the attention from fans, but even in Richmond he only managed to hit .220/.294/.344. Lillibridge struck out 90 times in 355 AAA at-bats, which would be a troublesome rate from a slugging first baseman. For a speedy, diminutive shortstop, it's not going to earn him any friends. It's far too early to shovel dirt on Lillibridge's prospect status, and the White Sox could use a talented young shortstop, but I can't shed too many tears.

I'm not familiar with Gilmore and Rodriguez. Santos struck out scads of hitters in Rookie Ball, but the road to the majors is strewn with the corpses of pitchers who struck out scads of hitters in Rookie Ball. Gilmore became a decent OBP guy in my Baseball Mogul simulations, so he's got that to anticipate.

Strictly as a talent swap I like this deal, and I give it a tentative thumbs up, even with Flowers involved. But I worry about the strategic wisdom of the trade. The whole idea of the "success cycle" has become a tiresome meme (thanks Baseball Prospectus!), but it has some validity. Vazquez is a nice pitcher, but the Braves are not a reliable innings eater away from competing in 2009. Nor are they two good pitchers away from competing. Wren can fill an oil tanker with money and back it up to AJ Burnett's door, but Burnett and Vasquez aren't going to haul Atlanta to Philadelphia's level. Unless Wren adds a slugger at one of the corner outfield positions, the Braves are going to need an otherworldly helping of luck to reach the playoffs in 2009, even with those two pitchers.

If the Braves had passed on Vazquez and held on to Flowers, he might have blown up in AA and pushed his way into Atlanta's lineup. Or they could have dangled an elite catching prospect on the trade market and used him in a deal for a younger asset at a position of need. He could also tank against AA pitching and lose all his value. That's the gamble you take.

Vazquez is signed through 2010 at $11.5 million per year; it appears the Braves will be paying all of that.

Braves Probably Acquire Javier Vasquez

2008-12-02T17:35:00.002-06:00

Peter Gammons is reporting that the Braves have struck a tentative deal for White Sox starter Javier Vasquez. (Ignore the headline, which says "Reyes going to Atlanta for Reyes.)

Very few details yet. Gammons thinks young lefty Jo Jo Reyes is involved, but FOX's Ken Rosenthal explicitly says Reyes is not in the trade.

Once we have those details I'll have a longer post. But without those details, and just writing off the top of my head, I give it a tentative thumbs up.

Florida 45, Florida State 15

2008-11-29T18:29:00.003-06:00

The talent disparity between these teams can be summed up with the following two statements:

1. The Florida Gators were quarterbacked by Tim Tebow.
2. The Florida State Seminoles started Christian Ponder at QB, but eventually replaced him with Drew Weatherford.

The Gators eviscerated Florida State with almost contemptuous ease, dispatching the Seminoles on a dreary, rain-soaked day that left the field at Doak Campbell Stadium a morass. It didn't slow down Florida, which put up 502 yards on the Seminoles despite few contributions from Percy Harvin.

They didn't get much from Harvin because he twisted his ankle on a goal line play. ABC announcer Bob Griese practically wrote Harvin's postmortem before Percy was able to limp off the field, declaring him out for the SEC Championship Game and probably the bowl game. That seems premature to me. We don't know his status yet; suffice it to say losing Harvin would be a huge blow to UF's chances against Alabama.

Aside from the Harvin injury it was a lovely game in crummy weather. The Gators racked up 317 rushing yards on a theoretically stout FSU defense; Chris Rainey picked up 97 yards, Jeff Demps 89, Tim Tebow 80, Emmanuel Moody 40. That's balance we can believe in.

Tebow accounted for four touchdowns, three through on the air, one on the ground, but he only threw for 185 yards, probably not enough to make a dent in the Heisman race. He's got one more marquis game to impress voters; if Tebow wants to repeat as the Heisman winner, he'd be well advised to throw for about 300 yards and notch five or six touchdowns.

His favorite target today was tight end Aaron Hernandez, who caught four passes for 61 yards. Hernandez scorched FSU twice on shovel passes I saw coming from the second he went in motion, but which evidently caught the Seminoles completely by surprise. Hernandez has emerged as a viable third option behind Harvin and Louis Murphy, who reeled in another touchdown pass today. Even David Nelson caught two passes.

The game was never really in doubt. Florida scored on its first, third, fifth and sixth possessions and entered halftime with a 28-9 lead. Florida State's most effective weapons were kicker Graham Gano, who nailed all three of his field goal attempts but did his only extra point blocked by about three different Gators, and return man Michael Ray Garvin, who repeatedly gashed UF's coverage unit. Bizarrely, the Seminoles had great field position throughout the game, but never showed any ability to capitalize on their good fortune.

For his part Urban Meyer moved to 12-1 against UF's four big rivals: FSU, Georgia, Miami and Tennessee, and he's won those games by a combined score of 408-180.

Florida's last remaining challenge is abundantly clear: defeat the 12-0, number one-ranked Alabama Crimson Tide in the SEC Championship Game next Saturday. Do that and, barring some kind of SkyNet-esque computer revolution, the Gators will reach their second national championship game in three years. Expect a preview next week.

A Last, Very Annoying Roadblock

2008-11-26T14:51:00.002-06:00

Sports Illustrated's Stewart Mandel recently wrote that this year's Florida State team is the best one Florida has faced since Urban Meyer took over in Gainesville. That's true. I would argue, however, that says more about the state of FSU's program than it does about the quality of this particular team.

It's tempting to compare the situation faced by this Florida team to the one surrounding the 2001 squad, Steve Spurrier's last. Both teams played bitter rivals for the last game of the regular season: the 2008 team will face Florida State and the 2001 club played Tennessee in a showdown pushed back from its normal early season date by the September 11 attacks. Both teams were two wins away from a berth in the national championship game. Prolific quarterbacks led both teams (Rex Grossman quarterbacked the 2001 unit) to repeated blowouts. And both teams had those otherwise great seasons ruined by heartbreaking losses to unranked SEC West opponents: Auburn was the early prototype for the 2008 Ole Miss team that haunts Meyer's dreams.

The 2001 team saw its national championship ambitions shattered by the Volunteers; many still argue that upset drove Spurrier to the NFL. As I said, it's tempting to worry about history repeating in 2008.

The one key difference between the two seasons, however, is that the 2001 Tennessee team was actually good. They would go on to lose to LSU in the SEC Championship Game, but the Volunteers came into The Swamp ranked fifth in the country and boasting a 9-1 record. Florida State, by contrast, is 8-3 in the mediocre ACC and doesn't even control its own destiny in the race for the conference championship game.

But it is worth acknowledging that this year's Florida State team is better than the clubs Meyer and the Gators whacked in 2005-07. The Seminoles rank 45th in the nation offensively, a hearty boost from their rankings the last couple years. The defense is revitalized too, if not to the level of those frightening mid-90's units that just kept producing first round defensive linemen and linebackers. The Seminoles rank fourth in the nation in sacks with 3.18 per game. A replay of UF's early season offensive line issues could prove disastrous for the Gators.

I expect the Seminoles to challenge UF's secondary (which, despite all its great work this season, has yet to fully earn my trust); Greg Carr, Preston Parker, Taiwan Easterling, Corey Surrency have all put up respectable numbers and are dangerous in their own ways. Parker is kind of an unemployed Lehman Brothers' analyst's Percy Harvin, and at 6'6, Carr presents serious match-up issues with UF's cornerbacks.

But the Seminoles still don't have a QB on the level of Tim Tebow, which would be fine, except they still don't have a QB on the level of Casey Claussen or Chris Rix. Christian Ponder was elevated to the starting position before the season began, beating out frequent punching bag Drew Weatherford, who frankly was too nice to a guy to deserve playing behind that offensive line four straight seasons. Ponder's a mobile guy and has picked up 390 yards on 106 carries, which is impressive considering the Seminoles are 59th in the nation at preventing sacks. But Ponder is also completing just 56.4 percent of his passes and has just 12 touchdowns against 11 interceptions.

No, the Seminoles are going to try and make their hay running the ball. They rank 28th in the nation in rushing offense, and again, that's a massive improvement from the last several years. Antone Smith is finally living up to a portion of his high school hype, and back-up QB D'Vontrey Richardson has some nice numbers as a runner. The worrisome factor here is the status of Florida's defensive line. Freshman Matt Patchan is out with a knee injury and sophomore Lawrence Marsh is questionable due to a similar ailment. Patchan's loss is mainly a blow to depth, but Marsh is by far the best defensive tackle Florida has. If he's out, or even if he's playing at a fraction of his ability, the Seminoles might be able to find some holes in Florida's patchwork defensive line. That's the match-up to keep an eye on, I suspect.

On the other side, there's not much for Florida to change offensively. Considering FSU's ability to rush the passer and Florida's somewhat iffy passing game, I expect the Gators to again rely heavily on the rushing attack to move the ball. Percy Harvin played a huge role in both the 2006 and 2007 games, and there's every reason to expect he'll again be massive part of the offensive gameplan as a runner and a receiver. He'll be especially useful as a hot receiver when FSU defensive coordinator Mickey Andrews dials up one of his blitz packages.

There is one x-factor (cliche alert!) I should mention. FSU's Graham Gano is evidently the Samuel L. Jackson of place kickers. Gano is 21 of 23 on field goals, perfect on anything less than 50 yards and five of seven on anything longer than 50 yards. Bizarre as it is to write this sentence, should the game come down to a field goal, Bobby Bowden has to feel pretty confident in his chances. (Florida's kicker, Jonathan Phillips, is perfect on his field goal attempts but gets used about as often as the condom in a Trekkie's wallet)

But I don't think it'll come down to a field goal. Doak Campbell Stadium is a tough place for the Gators to play, but they've pulled out the last two games they've played in Tallahassee. Florida State will fight ferociously in the early minutes and probably sack Tebow once or twice in the first quarter, but the talent disparity between the two teams is too great.

34-17, Florida.

Syracuse 89, Florida 83

2008-11-24T22:20:00.002-06:00

Turns out losing Marreese Speights didn't help Florida's defense much. Shock of shocks, that.

The Fighting Citrus Fruit repeatedly eviscerated UF's, whether the Gators played man-to-man or a particularly laughable zone. A lot of the credit for that has to go to Syracuse. Jonny Flynn is missing an "h" but not much else; he's a hell of a player. So is Paul Harris. Harris scored 18 points and grabbed 11 rebounds; Flynn scored 18 on five of seven shooting. The rather beastly Arinze Onuaku scored 13 and picked up 12 rebounds. Florida had no answer for him; he absolutely abused the Gators inside.

UF also failed to contain Syracuse sharp-shooter Andy Rautins in the first half; he was five of nine from behind the arc, though he was silent as a mausoleum in the second half.

It was actually a sharp, fun, well-played game. Syracuse's biggest lead was 10 points and they didn't hold that for very long. But the Orange basically won the game when they were able to open up a seven or eight point lead in the second half. The Gators simply couldn't stop Syracuse on consecutive possessions. Mathematics is a cruel mistress; if you fall behind by a couple possessions and can't stop the other guy from scoring, it's pretty darn hard to win.

With 19:02 left in the game, Eric Devendorf hit a three-pointer to make the score 46-40. From that point on the Gators never pulled within three.

It wasn't a complete disaster. Nick Calathes was his usual well-rounded self, scoring 17 on better than 50 percent shooting, dishing seven assists and recording three steals. Freshman guard and mighty mite Erving Walker looked pretty good against some solid competition; he scored 13 points coming off the bench and knocked down three shots from beyond the arc.

The true revelation, however, was Alex Tyus, who scored 24 points on 11 of 14 shooting. It was, by a wide margin, the best game of his college career. A lot of those points came on relatively uncontested put-backs, but he also drained several mid-range jumpshots and showed impressive touch around the basket.

But even Tyus struggled defensively. He only picked up four rebounds and did nothing to discourage Onuaku or Harris in the paint. The Gators didn't prove that they could stop or even contain effective low-post scorers. That's going to be a problem all year.

With the loss, UF fell to 3-1. Tomorrow they'll face the loser of tonight's Kansas/Washington match-up in the consolation game of this little mini-tournament. Beating either one of those teams would keep the Kansas City excursion from being a complete waste. Banking a win against a relatively decent team like Washington or Kansas would be helpful come tournament time, especially considering the quality of the SEC.

(Programming note: I obviously don't plan on recapping every basketball game. There are too many and I don't get to watch most of them. Important, nationally televised games will warrant an entry)

Two Links, Presented Without Comment

2008-11-22T22:22:00.003-06:00

1. The New Gold Standard: Charlie Weis and Notre Dame's Rise to Glory.

2. Notre Dame Fans Pelt Team With Snowballs After Loss to Syracuse.

Florida A Lot, The Citadel A Little

2008-11-22T21:14:00.003-06:00

The real score was 70-19. The Gators put up 705 yards of total offense, which is even more impressive when you consider that they were yawning when they did it.

Well, She Is Prettier Than Seward

2008-11-22T18:45:00.002-06:00

A number of news outlets are reporting that Hillary Clinton will be Barack Obama's Secretary of State, though the official announcement apparently won't come until after Thanksgiving.

This is a difficult question. As Josh Marshall over TPM has pointed out, Clinton's a good Senator. She does good work in that body. Her voice would be of great use on issues like health care reform, issues on which she couldn't really weigh in if she was Secretary of State. There's no guarantee that her appointed replacement from New York would be anything but a non-entity.

A lot of the chattering has centered on a possible personality conflict between Obama and Clinton, or issues surrounding Bill's charitable foundation or any of a dozen other problems originating in the bruising primary fight between these two. I won't pretend those concerns are completely baseless, but I can't picture Clinton turning the State Department into a partisan camp or using the position to fight an insurgency against Obama. It's popular to caricature Clinton as some kind of devil beast out of Greek mythology, and too many Democrats joined the conservative fringe in that pastime during the primary. But this is human being, not the Whore of Babylon. And this is a serious woman who's going to have a serious job. If I expect her to use that position to undermine the President of the United States then I have to think that she is a truly awful human being with no regard for the well-being of her country. And I refuse to believe that.

No, my biggest concern is that I don't know whether she'll be very good at the job. That's not a question of talent or intelligence or toughness. She has all three of those in spades, and I guarantee you that in the back of his mind, Obama's thinking, "If she treats Putin like she treated me in Pennsylvania, he'll beg me to put a missile defense shield in Poland."

But there are a lot of smart, talented, tough people who wouldn't do this job very well. The Obama campaign took great pains to point out during the primary that Clinton's supposed foreign policy experience was rather unimpressive, and I don't think they were wrong. It's fair to ask whether she has enough experience with the kind of high stakes, high wire diplomacy the job requires. And if the answer is no, than this isn't the right place for her. Secretary of State is not the kind of job you hand out for political purposes. It's too important to give to anyone but an individual you feel is qualified for it.

Others have pointed out that Clinton's two largest areas of executive experience are the early-90's health care task force and her presidential campaign, both of which spun into the sea like they were off-screen plot twists in a MASH season finale. I won't belabor the point.

On the other hand, she is smart, tough and talented, and I has told people who asked me about my fondness for Obama, after the past eight years, I'm willing to take a leap of faith for talent. I'm not going to castigate Obama for this choice, assuming he makes it. I can see his rationale. But color me wary.

The Good Kind of Draft

2008-11-21T13:01:00.005-06:00

ESPN's College GameDay has unfairly declined to set up camp in Gainesville for tomorrow's game between Florida and The Citadel. And bizarrely, CBS will not televise the match-up. For my part, I've decided against driving down to the sports bar and watching the Gators put up 57 points in the first quarter with the Kansas City Gator Club. So tomorrow's "recap" will be one or two sentences and a few potshots at Florida State.

There is some sentimentality to tomorrow's turkey shoot, however. It's Senior Day at The Swamp, meaning several long-tenured Gators will be playing their last home games. This senior class isn't particularly large or overly talented; Urban Meyer's first recruiting class (and, to a much lesser extent, Ron Zook's last class) was a weak group.

There are a couple players worth mentioning. Cornelius Ingram was cruelly robbed of his senior year and a chance to improve his draft stock, so he should get a nice ovation from the faithful. Jonathan Phillips finally earned his scholarship this season after three years of errant garbage time PATs. Kestahn Moore has caught a lot of flak during his tenure with the Gators without uttering a word of complaint. Jim Tartt, Phil Trautwein and Jason Watkins have all done yeoman's work on the offensive line; Tartt has played the last three seasons with a chronically painful shoulder. Tate Casey, a fifth year senior tight end, has happily embraced the role of blocker. Javier Estopinan has battled multiple knee injuries. And Louis Murphy is UF's second-most reliable receiver.

The only players on that list with any NFL prospects are Ingram and Murphy. CI might earn a late round draft choice as a long-term developmental prospect. Murphy, for his part, could push into the middle rounds with a few great showings in the 40-yard dash.

Far more interesting than the seniors are the three talented juniors who form the core of this potential championship team: Tim Tebow, Percy Harvin and Brandon Spikes. All three have the opportunity to leave school early and enter the 2009 NFL draft.

The conventional wisdom says that Spikes has the easiest decision, but I am (slightly) less sanguine. Spikes is a wonderful college player, but I wonder how harshly the NFL scouts will treat his skillset. He's not terribly fast. He's not particularly slow, either, but speed isn't his strong suit; I can see him putting up a 4.69 in the dash and causing GMs to grimace and grumble. Nor is he so massive that you can overlook his relative lack of speed; at 6'3, 245, he's solidly built, but not a tank. And despite what Gary Danielson may think, Spikes doesn't have the size or pass rushing ability to make it as a defensive end in the college game. I think Spikes is a probable first rounder, and he'll almost certainly leave early, but I can imagine him making some of Mel Kiper's "stock falling" lists before the draft.

Most Florida fans have come to accept the idea that Harvin will leave. When a recruit as highly regarded as Percy signs a Letter of Intent, it's basically a three-year business agreement between the player and the coach. The player will lend the coach his top-flight talent, help propel him to a championship and a new contract. The coach will give the player world-class medical care and training and provide him with national exposure. Well, Harvin played a big role on the 2006 national championship team, is a big part of this team and he got Meyer that new contract. The terms of their agreement are about to expire.

Harvin has a few dynamics working against him. He doesn't have great size. He has a worryingly extensive injury history. Florida wide receivers have struggled in the NFL since Cris Collinsworth joined the league.

None of that is going to matter. Harvin has, after missing the season opener against Hawaii, played with nary a limp. Going through this season without suffering a new injury was his big test, and he has passed. Unlike Spikes, I see Percy as one of Kiper's "Stock Rising" guys. There's going to be a lot of skepticism when he initially declares. NFL execs are going to treat him as pure speed, finesse receiver. There are going to be people who think Harvin has a future as a running back.

Then he'll go to the combine. And the scouts are going to drool. He'll blow them away with some absurdly low number in the dash and impress them with his performance in agility drills. He'll bench press more than any other receiver in the draft. And once teams examine his film, they'll see a hard-nosed player who runs between the tackles and plows over defensive backs when he doesn't run past them.

This isn't complicated: Percy Harvin is pure electricity. He has world-class speed and agility. NFL teams desperately search for someone with Harvin's skillset and ability to score any time he touches the football. When he declares he'll be projected as a late first round, perhaps even early second round, choice. By the time the draft rolls around he'll be in the top 15. Don't be surprised to see the Buccaneers make a play for Harvin. They love Gators, they need someone like Harvin and they'll be in roughly the right draft position to take him or trade up for him.

That leaves us with Tim Tebow. Dominant, denigrated, beloved, mocked Tim Tebow. Tim Tebow, who has accomplished all there is to accomplish. Tim Tebow, who has proven all his doubters and all the skeptics wrong. Tim Tebow, who has more to prove to his doubters and the skeptics than any other player in college football. Tim Tebow, who could be inducted into the Pro Football Hall of Fame in 2035 and would see SEC fans standing outside Canton with their arms crossed, repeatedly muttering, "I still don't think he's a good quarterback."

No one knows if Saturday will be Tebow's final home game. He has said that he hasn't thought about the draft, and I find that believable. He has deep connections to UF: both of his parents attended school there and he grew up worshiping Danny Wuerrfel. He's a deeply religious man with no immediate need for an infusion of cash.

He has also said in the past that he dreams of playing in the NFL. And "I haven't thought about it" cuts both ways. Plus, the NCAA has hamstrung a lot of Tebow's missionary efforts, most notably in preventing him from playing in a charity golf tournament last off-season. Those restrictions are gone once Tebow has escaped from the bear hug of NCAA oversight.

"Should he leave" is the more interesting question, because whenever he jumps ship he's going to be the most polarizing player in the draft. I can already see the screaming matches between Kiper and Todd McShay.

Here's the thing about Tebow: when you sketch a large-scale portrait of him, he's a great NFL prospect. He has all the skills that league demands of its QBs. That's what people tend to ignore when they talk about the failures of past Florida quarterbacks: players like Wuerffel, Chris Leak and Shane Matthews were missing important pieces of that skillset; arm strength, size, mobility, etc.

That's not the case with Tim. He's got size. (6'3, 235 pounds, all of it muscle) He's got mobility. He's got a big arm, if one that's overshadowed by the cannon Matthew Stafford lugs around; you need only look at a highlight reel of his perfectly thrown deep balls to realize that. He's thrown eight interceptions in two years as a starter and consistently makes the right decision. He obviously has an impeccable performance record at an elite school in an elite conference. And his intangibles are untouchable.

It's only when you paint with a detail brush that you start finding flaws. For all the work UF's Biomechanics Lab has done with Tebow, his throwing motion still needs work. He hasn't taken a meaningful snap from under center since middle school. And Florida's offense doesn't require Tebow to make NFL throws. (The deep out, the deep out, that freaking deep out)

I would never argue that those things are unimportant. If the NFL draft is about nothing else it's about executives and pundits accentuating minor flaws and blowing them up into significant moral failings. ("If Tim Tebow's intangibles are so good, why didn't he influence Meyer into letting him take snaps from under center? Or did he lack the insight to understand that would be important? Either way, I have to question this young man's character.")

But all those concerns can be ameliorated. Tebow's mechanics need work, but Phillip Rivers' throwing motion was declared a federal disaster area when he was a top five draft pick.

The bigger problem is the system quarterback charge. I don't know if Tebow will be able to overcome that. But NFL coordinators are slowly evolving to a point where the shotgun spread formation is more than just an occasional gimmick. The Patriots last year used it, if not exclusively, than predominantly. And the Chiefs have become a fascinating case study in overhauling an offense in the middle of the season. Offensive coordinator Chan Gailey, never considered an innovative mastermind, has done great work in taking advantage of Tyler Thigpen's talents.

Read that again. If a team is willing to retool its offense for Tyler frigging Thigpen, there's reason to believe at least a few will explore the possibility of doing the same for Tim Tebow. All it takes is one team realizing that sometimes the mountain must come to Mohammed.

And I think that one team will be there. I can't say who it'll be. But some general manager, some scouting director, is going to fall head over heels in love with Tebow after watching him at the combine and interviewing him. Maybe 31 teams will be convinced that Tebow's a bust waiting to happen.

Still, it only takes one. And I'm convinced that Tebow has the skillset to be a successful NFL quarterback. That's no guarantee he will be, of course. Lots of failed QBs have had the necessary skillset, only to trip on some other factor. Tebow might very well fail in the NFL. The odds are against him.

But I reject the idea that he's uniquely vulnerable to failure. And I reject the idea that he's self-evidently not an NFL quarterback.

Howard Dean Holds Conference Call With Prominent Liberal Blogs

2008-11-18T19:19:00.001-06:00

My invitation lost somewhere in the tubes.

Lieberman to Keep Chairmanship, Receive Large Ice Cream Cone

2008-11-18T12:56:00.003-06:00

Even when Democrats win they act like losers.

The Democratic Senatorial caucus voted 42-13 today to let Joe Lieberman keep his chairmanship of the Homeland Security and Governmental Affairs Committee. They did kick him off the Environment and Public Works Committee, at which Lieberman has barely had the good grace to avoid laughing. Lieberman will stay in the Democratic caucus, though he keeps that nifty (I) next to his name.

Really, it's nice that Harry Reid and Evan Bayh are going around reminding their fellow Senators that the quality of mercy is not strained. Very literary. But the Democratic Party is not a religious order. Forgiveness is not a part of the founding charter; the Senators aren't under any obligation to extend a hand of friendship to the man memorably dubbed "Senator Sanctimony." Lieberman has to earn forgiveness. He has to do some penitence for his sins.

And oh, his political sins were certainly cardinal. It's one thing to decide against endorsing and vigorously campaigning for your party's presidential nominee, even though that nominee campaigned for you in 2006 when you were fighting for your political life. It's a far different thing to endorse and vigorously campaign for he opposition party's presidential nominee. It's a far, far different thing to viciously attack your party's nominee, as Lieberman did. He wasn't content with supporting McCain. He participated in some of the GOP's most odious assaults on President-Elect Obama's patriotism by saying Obama didn't always put country first and accusing him of trying to cut off funding for American troops in Iraq. As if all that wasn't enough, he campaigned for several Republican Congressional candidates.

Oh, and he's been the loudest cheerleader for the Iraq disaster and President Bush's evisceration of civil liberties. He has also demonized those who disagree with either of those things. Heck of a guy, Joe.

Democrats have always patted themselves on the back for being the "big tent party." It's generally a positive trait. But there have to be lines you can't cross, and Lieberman's crossed about 13 of them. He's spent the last two years vigorously working against the interests of the Democratic Party. At this point he is simply not a Democrat. The Democratic Party should not be handing him a reward for his actions.

I have no doubt that all (or at least most) of Lieberman's actions have been motivated by conscience. He clearly thinks the Iraq war is a grand idea. He obviously thinks poorly of Barack Obama and deeply respects John McCain. He did the right thing by his convictions when he campaigned for McCain.

But as the Republicans are quick to point out, actions have consequences, and Lieberman's convictions are not those held by the Democratic Party. Mercy is admirable. But from time-to-time, a leader has to break out an iron fist. The Democrats have decided instead to lay down a red carpet.

Florida 56, South Carolina 6

2008-11-15T18:30:00.004-06:00

Jesu Cristo, this team is good.

South Carolina entered The Swamp ranked 24th in the country. They had the 3rd-best defense in the country, the 10th-best scoring defense and the 11th-best rushing defense. They had won six of seven.

They lost by fifty points, gave up 56 and allowed Florida to rush for 346 yards. But I suspect Spurrier won't complain to the media about Urban Meyer running up the score.

In fact, preliminary reports on the message board GatorCountry.com seem to indicate that Spurrier told Meyer at the postgame handshake to "Go win four in a row." That warms the heart of this UF alum. (And might give the university a new addition to its Go Gators commercial)

I wasn't exactly worried about the game, but South Carolina's defense presented a real threat. I figured Florida would scuffle for a bit before pulling out a 27-1o kind of victory. And for about nine minutes, this looked like a real game. Jeff Demps fumbled on Florida's first drive and the Gators had to punt on their second. South Carolina took over deep in its own territory with about six minutes to go and the score tied 0-0.

And that's when things went awry.

Gamecock QB Chris Smelley threw a hilariously bad interception to Brandon Spikes, who returned it for a touchdown. Ahmad Black intercepted Smelley on the next drive and Percy Harvin scored on the very next play. USC(E) tried to replicate the Music City Miracle on the ensuing kickoff, botched the trick play and set up Florida for a one-yard touchdown run. The game degenerated from there.

It was Percy's day. He ran for 167 yards on eight carries and broke an 80-yard touchdown run in the third quarter. That young man has lightning in his legs, and if he drops out of the first round of the NFL Draft I'll have compelling evidence that NFL GMs are morons.

Tim Tebow scored seven touchdowns and threw for about 250 yards against South Carolina last year, a performance that pretty much won him the Heisman. He didn't put up those kind of numbers this time around, but he did throw for two touchdowns and run for one more. He only picked up 173 passing yards and completed 13 of his 20 attempts.

But the story of the game and of the season has to be UF's much and justifiably maligned defense. We're now 10 games into the season, and Florida's defense entered tonight's game ranked 14th in the country. We have enough of a sample size to take that statistic seriously. And while South Carolina's offense is fairly unimpressive, it's hard not to smile hearing that Florida gave up only 173 total yards. The Gators even managed to generate pressure with the front four, which was something they haven't done with any consistency this year. UF intercepted three passes and now have 17 on the year. (They picked off 11 all last season) The last was a work of art from true freshman Will Hill, who won a Reggie Nelson-lookalike contest by swooping in out of nowhere to pick off Stephen Garcia.

With The Citadel up next, tonight's win essentially guarantees a 10-win season for the Gators, their second in the last three seasons. Only Florida State and Alabama stand between Florida and a chance at yet another national championship.

Braves Peaved at Padres?

2008-11-15T09:58:00.003-06:00

It appears that after six weeks of intense negotiations, the Braves have pulled out of the Jake Peavy trade talks. The teams can very easily spark those discussions again at any point, but for now it doesn't look like the Braves will acquire Peavy.

That's disappointing on one, obvious level. You can wave all the red flags you want regarding his high-stress delivery, last year's elbow injury and home/road splits. Those are legitimate fears, but the reality is there are risks any time you acquire a pitcher for multiple years.

And this is one special pitcher. I refuse to engage in the age-old practice of denigrating great players who come close to moving to the fan's favorite team but ultimately don't. That's a favorite pastime of college football fans on recruiting sites, and I'm seeing some of it on the Braves message board I frequent. Not only is Peavy an extraordinary player, he's signed at a relatively cheap rate for several years. A Peavy trade would not be a replay of the disastrous Teixeira move. Peavy could very easily be a part of the next good Braves team. And one could argue (rather poorly) that with Peavy on the roster, the "next good Braves team" could be the 2009 club.

But Braves GM Frank Wren probably made the right decision in pulling the plug. Reports vary, but the final offer seems to be some version of Yunel Escobar, Charlie Morton, Blaine Boyer and Gorkys Hernandez. I understand why that wasn't enough for Padres GM Kevin Towers. Escobar's a solid young player, but he's not a stud, and the three pitchers are far from sure things. If you're dealing Jake Peavy and his reasonable long-term contract, you want top-flight talent. There's no such thing a can't-miss prospect, but you want minor leaguers who are close enough.

In this case, that means you want super prospect Tommy Hanson, a pitcher who is busy eviscerating the hitter-friendly Arizona Fall League. That means you want highly regarded outfielder Jason Heyward.

And Wren can't give up Hanson or Heyward. Those two, along with power-hitting catcher Tyler Flowers and first baseman Freddie Freeman, form the future of the franchise. Considering where the Braves stand, the future is more important than the present.

I Hate Agreeing With David Brooks

2008-11-14T10:55:00.003-06:00

But unfortunately, I think he's largely correct with this column.

It wouldn't be a David Brooks column if it didn't include some questionable, sweeping generalizations. But I've spent enough attacking Brooks over the last several months, so I'll instead emphasize that I too am wary of the proposed bailout of the Big Three US automakers.

Unlike Brooks, I haven't made up my mind. He acknowledges that this is "an excruciatingly hard call." Millions of Americans make their living off the auto industry, from the UAW employees in Detroit to that annoying jackass who runs the local Ford dealership and invades your TV with poorly shot commercials where he hunts and kills large prices like he's in a Discovery Channel documentary.

And considering the state of the economy, the last thing this country needs are millions of unemployed auto workers, many of whom are older and don't have the kind of educational background and skillset that would allow them to find better jobs. It's easy to look down from on high, shrug your shoulders and say, "This is how capitalism works, kiddies. Bad companies fail, employees get fired. Sucks to be you. Have some unemployment compensation."

But, well, this kind of is how capitalism works. Ford, GM and Chrysler have been getting their asses kicked by Honda and Toyota for as long as I've been alive. The Japanese have continued to churn out better, cheaper, more fuel-efficient cars, while the American companies have been content to engage in an SUV arms race to see who can build the ungainliest manhood replacement. The market has spoken, and it's punishing the Big Three for their arrogance and willful ignorance.

The day those companies officially die (or, perhaps, file for bankruptcy) will certainly be a sad one, and there will be a lot of black crepe paper strewn about the capital to mourn the end of an era. But that is, I suppose, the downside of a free market. Previously good companies are mercilessly destroyed when competitors evolve. Good men are thrown out of work through no fault of their own. A city suffers. A national mythos long nurtured is rendered quaint.

I don't envy President-Elect Obama this decision, and I understand the inclination to help America's automakers. But I just can't get behind the idea of throwing billions at companies that are suffering because of their own mistakes.

Huzzah and Hurrah

2008-11-12T18:51:00.002-06:00

HBO orders pilot episode for A Song of Ice and Fire series.

Now, granted, this doesn't guarantee a series, and granted, I don't technically "get" HBO, in the since that I can watch it on a TV, and granted, this doesn't make up for the fact that George Martin can't write the damn fifth book. But still, great news.

Florida 42, Vanderbilt 14

2008-11-08T22:20:00.003-06:00

A lot of Florida fans worked themselves into a lather over tonight's game at Vanderbilt. Georgia's corpse was still warm when fans began panicking about the potential of a "trap game" in Nashville. The Cocktail Party was over for all of five minutes when a poster at GatorCountry.com posted a thread entitled "Concerned." The Gators were coming off a huge, emotionally satisfying win over their hated rivals. Vanderbilt and its wily head coach Bobby Johnson (who's slowly becoming overrated by the media and opposing fans) had a bye week to prepare for the Gators. It would be a night game, nationally televised. Commodore fans would have all day to liquor up and get loud for the game.

Yawn.

The Gators won by 28 points and the game still wasn't nearly as close as the final score indicated. Vanderbilt put up 14 meaningless points after the game was over and Tim Tebow was sitting on the bench. The Gators clinched the SEC Eastern Division, moved to 8-1 (6-1 in the SEC) on the year, guaranteed themselves a shot at #1 Alabama in the SEC Championship Game and Tebow continued his slow climb back into Heisman contention. So it was a good night all-around.

Tebow passed for three touchdowns and rushed for two more on the best running night of his season. Aside from the two touchdowns, he carried 11 times for 88 yards. (My keen graduate-school wannabe mathematical instincts tell me that's eight yards per rush. And I absolutely did not cheat by looking at the "YPC" column on ESPN.com) Florida had a lot of success with the bread and butter zone read play; Vandy's defense simply didn't have the talent to deal with Tebow, who's now up to 27 total touchdowns on the season.

Florida finished the game with 422 total yards, a respectable number against a defense that came into the game ranked pretty well in the various statistical categories. UF again spread the ball around pretty well; Carl Moore had four catches, Percy Harvin and Louis Murphy three apiece, Aaron Hernandez two and Deonte Thompson and Riley Cooper both reeled in one pass. Even rarely used disappointment David Nelson got into the act with a 41-yard touchdown pass at the end of the first half. (I do so love blown coverages)

Emmanuel Moody finally earned some touches in important minutes, picking up 48 yards on seven carries. He's still not a natural fit for this offense, but he has a role to play as a powerful changeup to Harvin, Jeff Demps and Chris Rainey. (The latter two were relatively quiet for the second straight week)

It was, in short, a dominating performance. But I do have to strike one discordant note. After Tebow's second rushing touchdown, he seemed to clutch his lower back from time-to-time. Nothing terribly dramatic, but there was nothing terribly dramatic about how he handled his left shoulder after last year's Kentucky game.

More damning was Meyer's repeated use of what I'll creatively label the Wild Gator formation. Florida will occasionally direct snap to Harvin. They don't use it very often (fewer than once a game, on average), and they don't do anything terribly creative with it; I've never seen Harvin do anything but take the snap and run the ball.

Meyer broke out the formation four or five times tonight, including on a couple of plays at the goal line where Harvin just plowed straight into the Vanderbilt line. Percy's deceptively strong, and he scored with relative ease on the possession, but still, that's Tebow Territory. I wonder if something's bothering Superman.

But, that's all speculative. Florida has three more regular season games: the SEC finale next week with South Carolina and old friend Steve Spurrier, a snoozefest with Citadel and the rivalry game at FSU.

Florida Basketball Preview

2008-11-07T10:55:00.002-06:00

It's not quite right to say that no one cared about the 2007-2008 Florida basketball team. It's not quite right to say there was no consternation when the team missed the NCAA Tournament for the first time in years. It's not quite right to say last season didn't matter.

But...well, it kind of didn't matter. When you win back-to-back national championships, the fans cut you a lot of slack. When you lose just about every player of consequence from those teams and lean heavily on true freshmen, the fans cut you a lot more. So there wasn't a lot of wailing and gnashing of teeth last year when the Gators plummeted to a 24-12 record and the NIT. (Where, to be sure, they actually played fairly well)

No, Florida fans didn't call for Billy Donovan's head after missing the tournament, which was a stunning bit of of restraint from that group. Expectations are higher this year, but they should be tempered by a few hard realities.

The Back Court

Florida's best guard and best overall player is point guard Nick Calathes. (Cuh-lay-thus) Nick was the SEC Co-Freshman of the Year, led the Gators in scoring last year and put up statistics '04s point guard Taurean Green never did. (Calathes' turnover ratio was better than anything Green put up) He's got impressive, occasionally unbelievable, court vision and routinely turned in highlight reel passes. In fact, one of Florida's biggest early-season issues last year was the inability of some players to anticipate and reel in Calathes' no-look passes.

We probably shouldn't expect much improvement from Calathes. "Upside" can be roughly defined as what we expect to happen when a player's wisdom matches his talent, and Calathes has the wisdom thing down pretty well. There aren't a lot of things he'll learn with additional experience. It's not that he's a flawless player; his defense is spotty and his jump shot isn't worthy of the label. The thing is, the shot part of that phrase isn't the problem; he hit 36 percent from beyond the arc last year. It's the jumping thing Nick has issues with. He simply doesn't have much of a vertical leap; he's 6'6 but plays like he's barely 6'0. Calathes doesn't have the explosiveness or athleticism to truly improve his game. He'll always be when he is right now, which is kind of a depressing thought, existentially speaking.

The old man of the team is Walter Hodge, the only senior on the team and the only player who was on both national championship teams. He's a great slasher, streaky shooter (39.8 percent from beyond the arc) and pesky on-ball defender, but he lacks the size and ball-handling ability to be anything more than a useful supporting player. Unfortunately, he's UF's starting shooting guard now that sophomore Jai Lucas (son of former NBA coach and point guard John Lucas) has transferred over concerns about his role.

That decision will press fascinating freshman Erving Walker into a bigger role than was perhaps anticipated for him. Walker is listed on Florida's web site at 5'8, 161 pounds; his profile on Scout.com has him at 5'8, 140 pounds, and he's probably closer to 5'7. It'll be interesting to see how Donovan utilizes Walker, who comes in with a reputation as a dynamic offensive player willing to chuck a three-pointer from any point on the floor. I'm hopeful that, in the long run, Walker will become UF's version of Devan Downey, South Carolina's Death Dwarf. Downey hectored Florida's guards through two games and nearly shot the Gamecocks to a couple upsets. For this season, however, Walker's probably going to be a defensive liability. But the Gators don't have a lot of options at guard. Mighty Mouse plays, whether he's ready for it or not.

The Front Court

Florida's weakness last year was pretty simple: they didn't have as many tall guys as most other teams. UF's one true big man, Marreese Speights, was a solid player, but didn't live up to the absurd expectations placed on him by the fans. He had great numbers in limited minutes as a freshman, a year crowned when he hit a jumper over Greg Oden in the Championship Game. When he didn't instantly become Wilt Chamberlain, the fans turned on him, and hard. By the time the 76ers drafted him in April, Speights was about as popular in Gator Nation as Darnell Dockett. They'll realize what they're missing this year, because the Gators again have serious issues with tall people.

In Wednesday's exhibition game against some school called "Rollins," the starting small forward position was occupied by 6'9 sophomore Chandler Parsons. Parsons was a high school teammate of Calathes, but wasn't the same caliber of prospect; he earned a scholarship only after busting his ass in his senior year. He's a weird player; 6'9, but only 213 pounds, and that's after an off-season of serious weight lifting. He's got an impressive long-range shot, good ball-handling skills and impressive passing ability. Like Calathes, he lacks the athleticism and explosiveness to play up to his size, and he's a decided liability in the post-up game. He's added some bulk, so he should be better this season, but he's not going to be a positive in the paint.

Parsons will be backed up by fellow bizarre sophomore Adam Allen, a 6'8 forward Florida started recruiting when he was a 6'5 guard. Allen hit a major growth spurt his senior year and was forced to quickly move from perimeter player to interior presence. He didn't handle that transition terribly well last year; he's more comfortable on the perimeter, but he lacks the athleticism and coordination to really handle the area. He is, however, an outstanding three-point shooter; he drained 42.1 percent of his shots from beyond the arc last year despite inconsistent playing time. An offseason of weight lifting should give him the bulk needed to be a little more helpful in the paint.

Nor will starting "power" forward, junior Dan Werner. Werner's one of those dangerous type of players: just good enough in the right areas to make a coach fall in love, not good enough to actually be a positive force. He's a smart guy, knows where he needs to be on the court and knows where everyone else should be on the court. He makes the right pass and plays well fundamentally. Theoretically he can stretch the floor with his jumper. In reality, he's a career 28.4 percent three-point shooter who lacks the size to bang down low (he's the least impressive-looking 6'8, 230-pound man I've ever seen), the athleticism to play small forward and the ball-handling ability to deal with any kind of pressure. He's a place-holder type, but Donovan loves him for those strengths I detailed earlier.

The starting center will probably be sophomore Alex Tyus, another undersized post player at 6'8, 220 pounds. He's an athletic, explosive kind of player with surprising touch on his shots. He's hopelessly raw, relatively short and lacks any kind of game away from the basket. Ladies and gentlemen, your starting center!

The Great Freshman Hope is Kenny Kadji, a 6-10, 245-pounder who was one of the best prospects in the country coming out of high school. Donovan's going to lean heavily on him, as Kadji's the best chance Florida has to actually field a legitimately effective big man this year. It's not a good thing you can say that about a true freshman.

Fellow freshman Eloy Vargas was another four star prospect and might be more talented than Kadji. But he's listed at 6'10, 215 pounds and is more of a developmental prospect than someone who can jump into the SEC right now and play with the big boys. He has a decent perimeter game, and Donovan loves big men who can shoot the three (Matt Bonner, anyone?), so he'll get some playing time. But his main contribution to the classic big man game will be as a designated fouler.

There are two other freshman I'm not terribly familiar with: 6'5 guard/forward Ray Shipman and 6'8 power forward Allan Chaney. Both will be asked to do a lot, especially Chaney, who seems like a bulldozer type.

Expectations:

One year out of the tournament is OK, but two straight seasons without any dancing would be a serious setback for the Florida basketball program. The Gators need to reach the tournament, even if it's as an eight seed that loses in the second round.

They can do that. Paradoxically, while Florida wasn't particularly close to making the tournament last year, they really were just two games from sneaking in: flip the loss at Vanderbilt and the home loss to Tennessee into wins, and the Gators are probably a tournament team.

The SEC isn't particularly good, and the Gators might be able to eek out 10 wins on talent alone. If they do that, they should be a tournament team. Those are the expectations for this year. Anything more is really a bonus.

Yes, He Did

2008-11-04T22:46:00.002-06:00

Barack Obama won much tonight. He won Colorado's peaks and Iowa's farms. He won Key West and the coves of Maine. He reached into the South and won the capital of the old Confederacy. At the moment of this writing, he's in position to win North Carolina, yet another bastion of that slave republic. And at the moment of this writing, the dark-skinned product of an interracial mariage is in position to win the state where the Klan reached the apex of its power.

He has won for himself the responsibility of fighting the myriad problems besetting his nation. He has won for himself the task of ending a disastrous, unjust war and the task of rescuing from oblivion another. He has won for himself the right to squarely face a financial crisis of monstrous proportions.

He has won for all Americans the promise of hope. He was won for all Americans a triumph of idealism over cynicism, of striving over cowering. He was won for all Americans the right to look their children in the eyes and tell them, "In this country, any child can grow up to be president." He has won for Americans a dream of promises fulfilled and potential reached.

Celebrating Independence With The 100th Post

2008-11-02T18:42:00.003-06:00

As mentioned yesterday, I hauled myself out of bed at 5:00 am this morning so I could trek across the border into Missouri and do some volunteer work for the Obama campaign in Independence. (It's the former home of Harry Truman, though the town is incredibly reluctant to brag about that little factoid) According to FiveThirtyEight, Missouri is the closest state in the country. It also has a reputation as a presidential bellwether, so winning it would be huge. (And if Obama picks off Missouri, he's winning the election, so there's that)

I was about an hour and a half early, so I got to spend that time cutting my fingers on plastic door hangers. Yes, I am that dexterous. Any woman who wants my phone number need only shoot me an email.

They eventually sent me out to the streets, and not just because of my issues with the door hangers. I was teamed up with another volunteer (a lifelong Republican who crossed party lines and wore four different Obama buttons) and told to go do some canvassing. I drove out to Independence convinced I would spend all day in Missouri and work all three volunteer shifts. After walking around Independence from 10:00 am to 2:30 pm while lugging around a clipboard and vicious door hangers, I called it a day. Turns out idealism and one donut isn't much fuel.

I'll have to disappoint anyone looking for insights based on this experience. We talked to about 30 people (and visited about 100 homes), and only found three people who copped to being McCain supporters. Most who spoke with us said they planned to vote for Obama, though a handful were still undecided. The Obama folks were, as expected, thoroughly organized. They were also very nice to me, though I suspect that won't play much role Tuesday.

The heartwarming moment of the afternoon came when we were trekking through a predominantly African-American neighborhood. Only one of the five voters was home, but we stuck hangers on the doors of the absent ones.

We had just finished putting up a hanger and were walking down the street when two little girls, about seven or eight years old, excitedly ran up behind us.

"What ya doing?"

We explained that we were looking for people who liked Barack Obama. Their faces lit up.

"Oh, oh, we're voting for Obama!"

We smiled and asked if their parents were going to vote for Obama. They nodded. Then one of the girls noticed our door hangers and asked if she could have one. We gave one to her, of course, and then her friend simply had to have one too. They thanked us and sprinted away.

A couple minutes later they came sprinting right back out of a house, the hangers tightly gripped in their hands, with a couple more friends jealously tagging along after them. Naturally those friends desperately needed their own door hangers, and once we equipped everyone with a hanger there was much rejoicing.

After knocking on our last door, we walked back to our car so we could move on to a new neighborhood. Behind us we heard four or five girly, delightfully shrill little voices melodically chanting, "O-bam-a! O-bam-a! O-bam-a!"

If that doesn't move you at least a little you need to check your full-sized aortic pump.

Florida 49, Georgia 10

2008-11-01T18:17:00.003-05:00

Stomp on that, Coach Pea Brain.

Florida's defense stopped The Hurdling Running Back (18 carries for 68 yards) and made The Human Arm realize that a brain is also nice. (18 of 33, 268 yards, three interceptions) The offense adeptly handled the great field position granted by the defense and Tim Tebow launched himself back into the Heisman conversation. (10 of 13, 148 yards, two TDs, plus three rushing touchdowns)

It was, in short, an almost perfect piece of revenge for last year's Cocktail Party disaster. The Gators got some help from Georgia and the officials; the Bulldogs missed two field goals, both relative chip shots, and Stafford's interceptions came on some silly throws.

UF's secondary scuffled at points, those three interceptions notwithstanding. Stafford threw for 268 yards and Georgia gained 295 total through the air. Major Wright botched a handful of plays, one of which resulted in Georgia converting a 3rd and 19. Mohamed Massaquoi routinely abused Joe Haden, and the Gators showed no desire to cover a handful of Georgia tight ends.

It's also worth pointing out that very little of what I predicted Friday came true. It wasn't a shootout (a shootout requires two participants), Urban Meyer didn't break out any gadget plays, the running game wasn't particularly dynamic (they picked up 178 yards on the ground, and 65 of those came from Emmanuel Moody in garbage time) and he certainly didn't use any I-formation plays. I'm OK with being wrong.

The back-breaking play was Joe Haden's interception in the third quarter, Florida's first of the game and the first time the Gators showed any ability to stop Stafford. Leading 14-3, the Gators were forced to punt after Brandon James dropped an eminently catchable third down pass. Though Florida pinned Georgia on its own two-yard line, the Bulldogs drove down the field with relative ease, Stafford completing pass after pass to wide open receivers.

Haden reversed the momentum of the game by slipping inside of Green at the 11-yard line and intercepting Stafford's throw. Haden ran 80 yards before being knocked out of bounds at Georgia's one. Tebow plowed in on the very next play, giving Florida a 21-3 lead.

The Bulldogs never seriously threatened after that point. Florida forced a three and out and Tebow responded by hitting Louis Murphy on a 44-yard TD pass. Down 28-3, Knowshon Moreno fumbled a toss on the next drive. Florida recovered, and defensive tackle Terron "Barry" Sanders did some nifty scoopin' and spinnin' to take the ball to Georgia's seven-yard line. Tebow scored on the next play, and the rout was on.

Florida is 5-1 in the conference. The task is pretty clear right now: win next week at Vanderbilt, clinch a berth in the SEC Championship game. Period, end of story. The game's in Nashville, and the Commodores always seem to annoy Florida, so Meyer would be advised to take this one seriously.

The national championship picture is more convoluted. Three undefeated teams stand ahead of the Gators, and Penn State has few challenges left on the schedule. Texas has tonight's game against Texas Tech and a Big XII championship game left to play. And the Gators are going to have a shot to knock off the undefeated Crimson Tide.

The biggest test on Florida's schedule looks to be Florida State. The Seminoles lost today and they don't have UF's talent, but the game's in Tallahassee and it would make FSU's year to ruin Florida's shot at a title.

All of that's in the future. The present, on the other hand, is pretty spectacular.

The 2008 Presidential Election: Prediction

2008-11-01T12:57:00.003-05:00

I've fired up the Distressed Reporter Predict-A-Tron 5000 on my Apple II and received the following results for the electoral college:

Obama- 338 votes
McCain- 200 votes

First, the methodology. I used a system nearly as complex as the one employed by Nate Silver over at FiveThirtyEight: I looked at a map of the 2004 results and guessed which way the states would go this year. Very scientific.

Details, details, details. I don't think McCain will win over any of the states that voted for John Kerry in 2004. I say this even though I'm panicking a little over recent polls in Pennsylvania that show McCain closing the gap. I think/hope/pray it'll be too little, too late, though it's worth noting that even with Pennsylvania McCain's not particularly close to the 270 votes he needs. Pulling the Keystone State puts him at 221 votes, while Obama rests comfortably at 317. McCain's also got a deep connection with New Hampshire, Obama quite famously lost the primary there and there aren't a lot of African-Americans in the state. But most recent polling indicates Obama's pretty safe up there.

The election is increasingly being fought in the Bush states; if McCain can hold most of those, he can still pull out a narrow win. I obviously don't have him doing that.

Iowa and New Mexico both seem relatively safe for Obama. Iowa has seven electoral votes, New Mexico five; add those 12 to the 251 Kerry pulled in 2004, and Obama's just seven votes from victory.

I think he gets the decisive states with relative ease. I've got Colorado going for Obama; add those nine votes to our running total, and Obama's at 272 and victory.

The rest of this is pretty much a tired litany of states. I think Obama takes Ohio, Nevada and Virginia in addition to the other states I mentioned. The biggest prize will be Florida; I think Obama gets an unlikely, come-from-behind victory after trailing most of the race in the state of my birth. Florida's been one of the biggest victims of the mortgage crisis, and I think economic anxiety combines with massive African-American turnout in the urban areas to give Obama the state's 27 electoral votes.

(Quick note: there was one "faithless elector" in 2004 who cast a presidential ballot for John Edwards. I'm assuming everyone writes in the correct names this time around)

I'm obviously predicting pretty big things for Obama, though it's worth noting that the FiveThirtyEight projection is even more optimistic, giving Obama 349.7 electoral votes. Their system has Obama taking North Carolina. I'm still skeptical; North Carolina might be a bridge too far this time around. It hasn't experienced quite the same demographic shifts as Virginia, and I can't quite bring myself to predict that huge turnout in the "Research Triangle" and among African-Americans will be enough to carry the state.

I'll believe Obama can win Indiana when I see it. It hasn't voted for a Democrat since 1964, and that was LBJ's landslide year. The Ku Klux Klan also reached the heights of its power in Indiana. That was, to be sure, in the 1920's, but there's an uncomfortable legacy there that will hinder Obama.

I also have McCain holding on to Missouri, meaning the state will lose its status as a presidential bellwether. Missouri's a true toss-up, the closest state on the map. Obama certainly has a great chance to win, but the state's been trending Republican in recent years. McCain wins by the skin of his teeth.

Voting: It Tastes Like Democracy

2008-10-31T17:55:00.003-05:00

Vote cast. Democracy saved. Sticker acquired.

I was looking forward to casting my vote on Election Day, amidst all the pageantry the DeSoto, KS branch of the VFW can muster, but I've committed myself to volunteering in Missouri Sunday, Monday and Tuesday. So advance voting was the only option.

This was my first time casting a ballot at a polling location, with a voting machine. I mailed in absentee ballots in 2004 and 2006, and if you're thinking, "Hey, Andrew, didn't you go to college in Florida? Why did you vote in blood red Kansas when you could have had an impact in a swing state?", well, you've got the same thought process as the classmate and Gainesville Democratic operative I had a crush on at the time.

But we're veering off the highway of topicality here. I wanted to brag about my valiant participation in America's democratic experience, but I also wanted to do some housekeeping. As noted above, I'll be pretty heavily engaged Sunday-Tuesday, so blogging will probably be light. I might be able to write something on one of those days, but no promises. I hoped to do an Election Night liveblog, but that's probably off the table.

To make up for one of those absentee days, however, I'm giving you a double dose of the Distressed Reporter charisma tomorrow. Look for a write-up of the Florida-Georgia game and my official prediction for the election.

Party Preview

2008-10-30T15:14:00.003-05:00

The Florida-Georgia game is always important, but this year's Cocktail Party is regarded as the most important in recent memory. The winner will occupy a commanding position in the SEC East race and probably elevate itself to the top of the list of one-loss teams hoping to sneak into a national championship game.

If you've been paying attention, of course, you know that Saturday's game is more than just a premier SEC showdown. SEC fans have long memories; Steve Spurrier ran up the score against Georgia in the early-90's because UGA did the same thing to the Gators and head coach Ray Graves in 1968. Everyone knows what the motivational video in the Florida weight room is this week:

I don't quite share the prevailing opinion in Gator Nation that this was the worst idea to come out of Athens since the invasion of Sicily. I do think it was a potentially dangerous stunt, and I lost some respect for Georgia head coach Mark Richt, especially considering the spectacle he made of castigating his team the previous week for taunting Vanderbilt after a close win. The SEC cravenly refused to discipline Richt, an inexcusable abdication of responsibility.

But Mark Richt's job isn't to win my respect, it's to win games without violating NCAA rules. If taking 30 yards of unsportsmanlike conduct penalties is the way to do that, so be it. Georgia won last year's game, and not because of the stunt; Urban Meyer rallied the troops after Knowshon Moreno's first TD and the Gators answered right back with a tying touchdown.

No, Georgia won that game because Moreno repeatedly gashed a battered, inexperienced defensive line and because Tim Tebow's shoulder was hurt just enough to throw Florida's offense slightly off its game. The Gators scored 23 offensive points (Wondy Pierre-Louis scored a touchdown after intercepting Matthew Stafford on a hilariously stupid throw) and picked up 343 yards, but Tebow was sacked six times.

Both teams are better this year; Stafford is finally playing up to his billing, while Florida features a more well-rounded offense and dramatically superior defense. The Gators have rebounded from the Ole Miss debacle with three straight blowout wins, including a 51-21 evisceration of LSU. The Bulldogs have held it together following an embarrassing defeat at the hands of Alabama between the hedges.

This should be the best kind of Cocktail Party: a shootout. I say this even though Florida ranks 13th in the country in total defense and Georgia clocks in at 21st. Stafford finally has a dynamic receiver in freshman AJ Green, and heretofore butterfingered receiver Mohamed Massaquoi has taken a step up. (Though I don't know if any Bulldog fan is truly comfortable with the idea of Massaquoi running across the middle on 3rd and eight in the fourth quarter) UF has managed to paper over the holes in its secondary with the addition of true freshman cornerback Janoris Jenkins and improvement from Joe Haden, Major Wright and the strong safety position. (Ahmad Black is making my skepticism look unwarranted, though Meyer is working freshman phenom Will Hill into the rotation) But this is still not a great coverage team; Haden still scuffles a little in that area and Wright has occasional brain farts.

Every quarterback looks brilliant, every receiver dynamic, every cornerback incompetent when a defense fails to pressure the quarterback. The Gators didn't do that last year, and they're only ranked 33rd in the nation in sacks per game this season. If Jermaine Cunningham, Carlos Dunlap and Lawrence Marsh can't make Stafford panic and shuffle his feet, he'll carve up Florida's secondary. And I haven't seen a lot of reason to suspect the Gators will generate intense pressure.

But they're not bringing a butter knife to a tank battle. Despite Georgia's stout run defense (6th in the country), I expect to see the Gators employ a run-heavy attack. You want to attack the other guy's weakness (the Bulldogs are 77th in the nation against the pass) and avoid his strength, but you also want to exploit your own strengths. And right now Florida's strength is on the ground with Tebow, Jeff Demps, Chris Rainey and Percy Harvin. UF's passing game isn't awful, really, but it is from time-to-time a little dysfunctional. Considering how easily Georgia ruptured a pretty solid UF offensive line last year, I fully expect to see Meyer ride those four runners (and, perhaps, Emmanuel Moody) all game.

You'll probably see some of the gadget plays Meyer's largely kept in reserve all year; reverses, receiver passes, two QBs on the field, etc. That's not an off-the-wall prediction. I do, however, have one Crazy Ass Prediction(TM): I think Meyer and offensive coordinator Dan Mullen break out I-formation plays with Tebow under center, a fullback, hell, maybe even two tight ends. Florida fans, desperate to dislike the spread, have been obsessed with the idea of Tebow stepping under center and running plays from pro formations. Meyer does occasionally use a stacked-I set in goal line situations, but only for two or three plays a game. I expect on Saturday to see (relatively) extensive use of such formations as change-ups to Florida's traditional shotgun sets. The first few such plays will likely be simple interior runs, maybe utilizing Moody in the role for which he's best suited. Eventually, Meyer and Mullen can use that I-formation to slip dynamic tight end Aaron Hernandez deep into the secondary and hit him on a play action pass.

That's just speculation, of course, as are any guesses pertaining to Florida's retribution for last year's celebration. Personally, I favor the excessive politeness tactic: after the first touchdown, Tebow shakes hands with every member of the offense, breaks out a tea set hidden on the field and elaborately bows to Richt on the sideline. The official's call on that would be fun. "After the play, personal foul, offense, excessive courtesy, 15 yards, enforced on the kick-off."

I haven't even mentioned special teams, where Florida will undoubtedly place emphasis on blocking kicks and springing Brandon James for big returns.

No predictions here; this game's a true tossup. It has the potential to be one of the series' classic games, though I'll certainly accept a 55-0 Florida victory.

A Note of Explanation

2008-10-30T15:08:00.001-05:00

Sorry for the extended absence. I'm not dead, if my pulse is any evidence. My laptop's AC adapter conked out, and I ran the battery dead Monday. I just received my replacement from Dell, so things are up and running here at DR headquarters. Expect a full-length post shortly.

Florida 63, Kentucky 5 (LE)

2008-10-25T17:48:00.003-05:00

At one point this fall, it looked like Jeff Demps might go to Beijing as part of the US Olympic Team's 100-meter dash team. That would have made it very difficult, probably impossible, for him to play as a freshman this season. At the time, I wrote on another board that it wouldn't be a huge loss. Sure, Demps was frighteningly fast, and it would be nice to have him as an occasional bolt of lightning. But considering his size (5'7, well below 200 pounds) and inexperience, and considering UF's stable of running backs (Emmanuel Moody, Kestahn Moore, Chris Rainey, Mon Williams), he wasn't a crucial part of the 2008 team.

Whoops.

Demps had yet another fantastic game, this time gaining 50 yards on seven carries and leading the Gators in receiving in their unholy rout of Kentucky. Demps picked up 67 yards on four catches, and broke a long touchdown after catching a five yard crossing route on third down.

There are a couple things worth noting here. First, this Kentucky team isn't particularly bad. They're not as good as the Andre Woodson teams of the last couple years, but they've got better talent than those post-Hal Mumme probationary squads. On the other hand, most of that reasonable talent was injured. Dicky Lyons Jr. and Derrick Locke are out for the season, and the Wildcats are down to second and third string linebackers at all three positions. So a win on Homecoming was never really in doubt.

What is in doubt is Kentucky special teams coach Steve Ortmayer's job. The Gators blocked three kicks, including two punts on back-to-back drives that led to quick touchdowns. Florida jumped out to a 28-0 lead in the first quarter and never came even remotely close to being challenged.

Once again Tim Tebow didn't put up huge numbers (he was 11 of 15 for 180 yards, and gained 48 yards on nine carries), but he did pick up four touchdowns- two rushing, two passing. The TD pass to Percy Harvin to end the first quarter scoring was particularly impressive; Tebow had a defender hanging on his right shoulder pad and threw a perfect strike to Harvin for a 33-yard touchdown.

The Gators managed to find some offensive balance for the third straight game. Harvin had just the one catch and ran the ball twice. Demps had seven carries, Tebow nine, Moore eight, Rainey seven. Demps caught four passes, Louis Murphy two, and Harvin, Rainey, Moore, Carl Moore, David Nelson, Deonte Thompson and Brandon James added one apiece. The offensive line didn't allow any sacks and opened up big holes for the running game.

Defensively...eh, it wasn't much of a challenge. Kentucky had no offensive playmakers with Locke and Lyons out, and their QB play was uninspired. (Though I do like Randall Cobb, a lefty who came in after starting QB Mike Hartline struggled) Again, however, Florida couldn't generate much of a pass rush. They picked up one sack, split between Carlos Dunlap and Brandon Spikes.

Kentucky just played the role of sparring partner for a Florida team that has Georgia on its mind. The Gators should be as healthy as an SEC team has a right to expect at this point in the season. Harvin's ankles seem to be as strong as they're ever going to get. Linebacker Dustin Doe's hale and healthy for the first time since the Mississippi loss. Tebow's not uniquely sore for a starting quarterback. Janoris Jenkins did bruise his knee, and he's a huge part of Florida's revamped secondary, but there's no reason to suspect he'll miss next week's game.

Look for a preview of The Game Formerly Known As The World's Largest Outdoor Cocktail Party next week.

MVG

2008-10-22T19:59:00.003-05:00

Every day I ask myself a lot of questions. How safe is Pennsylvania for Obama? Did I make a mistake earning a journalism degree? If a Gummi Bear fought a Care Bear, who would win?

But the truly vexing question is this: who was the most important player on the 2005-2007 Florida Gator basketball teams that won back-to-back national championships?

The conventional wisdom after their first championship was that the Gators were a collection of unimpressive talent propelled to victory by great coaching and teamwork. After they won a second championship and three players were taken early in the first round of the NBA draft, that storyline faded away. It is true, however, that those teams were successful because the individual parts meshed with each other. While that made them beautiful to watch, it also has the effect of making a breakdown complicated. Remove one piece from the puzzle and the picture is much less impressive. So singling out one starter as the most important is difficult.

But as the Roman poet Horace once said, "Nothing is too high for the daring of mortals. We analyze national championship college basketball teams and vote for Sarah Palin in our folly." So let's storm some heavens. The candidates:

1. Al Horford, PF, 11.3 points per game in 05-06, 13.2 PPG in 06-07
The leading candidate because he was almost certainly the best player on those teams. He was the highest NBA draft choice (taken third overall in the 2007 draft), nearly won the Rookie of the Year award and should have the best NBA career of anyone listed here. Horford was the go-to guy in big situations; by the end of his career he had crafted a subtle and well-rounded offensive game. He could bull through defenders in the low post and hit perimeter jumpers from just inside the three-point line. His court vision and passing skills were outstanding. He was a key component in UF's last line of defense. The Gators' lone defensive weakness were the guards; Taurean Green and Lee Humphrey lacked the size and athleticism to stick with elite slashers. But Horford provided an emergency relief valve for Green and Humphrey; if they were beaten, they could still rely on their big men to block the shot.

2. Joakim Noah, C, 14.2 PPG in 05-06, 12.0 PPG in 06-07
My favorite member of this team, one of my two favorite athletes of all-time and generally one of my favorite people. I think the greatest compliment I can give him is to say that in some small way the world would be a duller place without Joakim Noah's existence. He's a strange dude off the court and a just slightly less duller place on it. You haven't lived until you've seen a gangly, pony-tailed, seven-foot-tall center leading the fast break. It's an experience. Joakim was the emotional heart of these teams (for what that's worth) and the second part of that stalwart defensive back line; together with Horford he succeeded in blocking and altering countless shots. UCLA head coach Ben Howland still has nightmares about Noah erasing every scoring opportunity in the 2006 Championship Game. But he was rather limited on the offensive end. He had no perimeter game to speak of, and John Wooden's eyesight never recovered after the first time he witnessed Jo's jump shot. (Though it should be pointed out that despite his pathetic form he was still a pretty good free throw shooter for a guy of his size; he hit 68 percent of his free throws during his time at UF, 73 percent in 05-06) Like Horford, he had exceptional vision and passing skills.

3. Corey Brewer, SF, 12.7 PPG in 05-06, 13.2 PPG in 06-07
A ferocious defender, Brewer was the guy Billy Donovan threw on the other team's best defender. Arron Afflalo sees Brewer and his absurd wingspan in his sleep. Corey was, in short, the defensive stopper on these teams. He clocked in at 6-9, tall enough to guard power forwards and the occasional center, but was fast and athletic enough to hang with guards. When Brewer played through mono at far less than 100 percent against Kansas in 2006, the Gators lost their first game of the season. When he sat out the game against Florida State, the Gators lost their second game of the season thanks to an explosive performance from Al Thornton. (They did win the games he missed against Providence and Southern but, well...you know, I think you get where the "but" is leading in this parenthetical.) He was a dynamic and infuriating offensive player, nicknamed "The Drunken Dribbler" by his teammates. For every defensive stop followed by a fast break and rim-rattling dunk there was a defensive stop followed by an out-of-control careening around and through every one of the nine other players on the floor and an eventual turnover. The Corey Brewer Experience was certainly that.

4. Taurean Green, PG, 13.3 PPG in 05-06, 13.3 PPG in 06-7
Point guards on championship teams take on almost mythical airs. They're credited with supernatural powers of charisma and leadership; by the time Michigan State won the national championship in 2000 Mateen Cleaves was regarded as a cross between Gandhi and Optimus Prime. Taurean wasn't a glamor player, but he was given much the same treatment. Very few players could go 0-for-7 from the field, score two points, dish eight assists in a national championship game and get lionized for the performance. But this is reading as overly harsh. Green (barely) led the team in scoring in 06-07 and was behind only Noah in 05-06. He was a lethal three-point shooter, especially coming off screens. He did get a little too much credit for his "game-manager" skills; he wasn't able to put up 2-1 assist-to-turnover ratios in either season, and he didn't have the athleticism to penetrate and dish like the elite point guards.

5. Lee Humphrey Not Just A Shooter, SG, 10.9 PPG in 05-06, 10.3 PPG in 06-07
Lee's certainly got the worst case here. Donovan and various announcers were obsessed with insisting that Humphrey was "Not Just a Shooter;" he could barely touch the ball in an ESPN-televised game without having that phrase immediately uttered by some excitable commentator. Well, he was just a shooter, Donovan's laughable claim that he was a lockdown on-the-ball defender notwithstanding. In 2005-2006 Humphrey took 299 shots; 246 were three-pointers. In 2006-2007 he took 305 shots; 246 were three-pointers. (As a wonderfully dorky aside, Humphrey was 113-of-246 from beyond the arc in both championship season) He shot a total of 43 free throws in two seasons. Humphrey was just a shooter. He was also an extraordinary shooter, an assassin who played a huge role in Florida's offensive gameplan. Opponents had a difficult choice when the Gators threw the ball into Noah or Horford: try to guard two future NBA big men one-on-one, or double team and leave someone open on the perimeter. Noah and Horford had the smarts and vision to find the open player, and if that player was Humphrey, the inevitable result was a three-pointer. He was deadly in both championship games, but his performance against Ohio State in the second was extraordinary. Time after time the Buckeyes would pull the game closer, and time after time Humphrey drove them to the ground with a three pointer.

The answer to our original question, I think, is Brewer, largely because he was the Most Irreplaceable Gator. He had no real back-up in either season; when he sat out, either with the aforementioned mono or an ankle sprain the Gators went to a small three guard lineup. That was their default setting last year, when Donovan was rebuilding after the loss of these five players. Horford was a better overall player but could more credibly be replaced by back-up big men Chris Richard and Marreese Speights. Much the same could be said about Joakim. Green was equally hard to replace, but simply wasn't as good as Brewer. Unsurprisingly Humphrey lags behind in this discussion; his game was too limited to lift him into the same category as the other four.

A Master's Degree From the School of Hard Knocks

2008-10-20T21:44:00.005-05:00

You never realize how expensive a 42-cent stamp is until you buy 100 of them.

I was in that situation today because I needed to mail a handful of envelopes to old college professors. I needed to do that because I'm applying to grad schools. I'm doing that because I'd like to earn a master's degree in political science, and this one I made out of construction paper, Elmer's Glue and elbow macaroni is just not earning me the respect I deserve.

The nine schools:

Colorado
Kansas
Missouri
Iowa
Illinois
Michigan
George Washington
Florida
Bad Ass Mamma Jamma U

I've realized for awhile how much I miss school. Not really the parties, the football games or the late nights with friends. There's a little of that, to be sure, but I've never been much of a social creature. No, as sappy as it sounds, I enjoy the atmosphere of a college campus. A lot of that is the Gothic and faux-classical architecture, for which I'm quite a sucker. John Dickerson would probably mock me for this (you know, if he had any idea who the hell I was), but I enjoy buildings fronted by Greek columns. (I might want to see about a degree in psychology while I'm at it) The architecture and the plant life leads to serenity; it's hard to be distressed when you're surrounded by red brick and evergreen trees.

And if you thought that was sappy, you'll love this: I enjoyed waking up every day with the knowledge that my only responsibility was to learn. That was the case in high school, of course, but for a lot of reasons it's more profound at college. College gives a student the chance to indulge his or her intellectual quirks. My favorite class at UF was probably "The Literature of German Knighthood," and really, there's no practical reason to take that course if you're not majoring in...well, the only acceptable major in this scenario is "The Literature of German Knighthood." If you're majoring in journalism, as I was, you're just taking that course for the fun of it. It's a peculiar brand of fun, to be sure, and it's easier to indulge those whims when your parents are paying for them (thanks mom and dad!), but it's nonetheless a pleasant situation.

There's certainly a measure of desperation in this process. I picked a horrible time to graduate with a journalism degree, and I picked the worst possible time to suffer a crippling bout of honesty. That godforsaken honesty eventually resulted in unemployment at a time when newspapers were cutting jobs by the truckload.

Obviously graduate school is a different beast than the undergraduate experience, but it's still education. It's a chance to learn, to grow, to contribute something to the academic marketplace of ideas. (No, I wasn't able to type that phrase with a straight face) And I'm looking forward to that opportunity.

Redempt-A-Film

2008-10-19T21:03:00.003-05:00

You know what? That didn't suck.

I'm referring, of course, to The Beast With a Billion Backs, the second Futurama movie and just broadcast on Comedy Central. Some of you may recall that despite my undying affection for the original series, I did not have a similarly sanguine reaction to Bender's Big Score, the first movie.

BBS had a self-consciously overcomplicated time travel plot, like something that was crafted by writers desperate to prove their Sci-Fi street cred. Fortunately, Matt Groening, David Cohen and the rest of the gang avoided that pitfall in Beast.

The feature-length movie is still not the best medium for Futurama. (For the broadcast Beast was broken up into four 30-minute episodes aired sequentially. Sorry, that's a movie) The action drags at points and it takes the writers too long to get to their central premise. Still, though it takes about an hour to reach, the story is tighter and more focused than it was in BBS.

In BBS, Groening and Co. seemed to labor under the pressure of squeezing every bit character and fan favorite into the two hour time slot. (This actually paid off a little, insofar as Al Gore was the highlight of the film) There were expectations to reach, years of anticipation that had to be satisfied. We needed to see everyone we loved from the series we loved. Free from that constraint, they were able this time to focus on the core cast and Fry's new love interest, voiced commendably well by Brittany Murphy.

Everything is just sharper than it was in BBS. I've written before that something was off in that movie; the animation was slightly different from that seen in the series, the colors were less vibrant and the voice acting was more amateurish. All are fixed in Beast. The colors are vibrant and the animation is sharp. Billy West, John DiMaggio, Katey Sagal and Futurama's other distinguished voice actors play their roles ably.

I don't want to go in-depth with plot details, but there's some real depth in this story of a Lovecraftian cosmic horror who comes to Earth and attempts to enslave humanity. One of the problems with BBS was its too-obvious attempt to tap into the surprising emotion and sentimentality seen in classic episodes like Jurassic Bark, Luck of the Fryrish and The Devil's Hands Are Idle Playthings. Beast doesn't reach those levels, but the sentiment's more subtle and less ham handed than in BBS.

I said awhile back that if you broke BBS into four, thirty-minute episodes, any one of those would easily be the worst episode of Futurama. I can honestly say that none of the episodes that compose Beast would fit in that Bottom Five list I assembled. To be sure, none of them would make a Top Five list. But this movie restored my faith in the Futurama staff and my willingness to shell out money for the next movie.

An Unclean Slate

2008-10-16T20:39:00.003-05:00

I read something yesterday that got me pretty mad. Not Attend-A-Sarah-Palin-Rally-And-Call- For-The-Death-of-a-Presidential-Candidate mad, but mad enough that I wanted to write an angry email to the person responsible. Unfortunately, Slate, which published the piece, didn't provide the email address for Rachael Larimore, who wrote the piece. I searched high and low for that address, and while gross incompetence is always a possibility when we're discussing me, I eventually came to the conclusion that it wasn't available on the site.

I fumed for awhile. Damnit, I had all this righteous rage to vent and no way to do it. I resigned myself to the reality that in this situation, I'd simply have to let it go.

And then I remembered: I have a blog and a captive audience of several people. I never have to let anything go! Plus, I didn't have anything else to write about today, who knows what would turn up Friday and the Gators have an off-day Saturday. I didn't want to run silent here for three or four straight days. So this is a perfect opportunity to rage like noble Achilles. If noble Achilles had a laptop. And a blog. And no life.

What angered me about the linked post on Slate's XX Blog was not Larimore's claim that Obama's words to Joe Wurzelbacher (aka "The Plumber") "sent chills down her spine," though I would argue that if Obama's statement really had that effect on her she needs to join Cindy McCain in some spinal insulation shopping. No, what riled me up was this paean to the nobility of Joe Wurzelbacher:

Can we look at a larger point about Joe the Plumber? Joe Wurzelbacher is, after all, a plumber. He didn't have his well-off parents send him off for his MBA or a law-school degree so he could get a cushy 9-to-5 job with an office and an assistant and good benefits. He's not a 25-year-old starting an Internet company with someone else's venture capital. He's gotten where he is today by unclogging our smelly toilets and fixing the pipes we probably should have had looked at before they burst.

It should be noted that the post you're reading has been building for awhile. I've been growing increasingly agitated with Larimore's constant deification of the Average American (TM) at the expense of Elitist Intellectuals (TM). It's usually in the context of defending the folksy, down-home, heartland appeal of Sarah "Community Organizing Is A Pathetic Endeavor Worthy Only of Scorn And Derision" Palin. (The heartland I live in honors those who work for the betterment of their community, but whatever)

Here, it's in the context of glorifying Wurzelbacher and his fear of Obama's tax plan. I don't want to talk about Joe The Non-Licensed Plumber or the details of Obama's proposals. Instead, I'd like to register my disgust at Larimore's greater point.

Let me be very clear: there is nothing inherently noble about working with your hands. Cleaning a toilet is not prima facie evidence of moral character. It's not a fast track to beatification. Nor, of course, is it evidence of a life gone askew or intellectual inferiority.

But we have this kind of Cult of the Working Man established in our political dialogue. We have this idea that everyone with a blue collar is more American than everyone with a white collar, that those who work on the side of the road or in strange bathrooms are simply better than those who work in offices or libraries.

We have serious issues in this country with wealth disparity. Politicians should address that. But we do not glorify the plumber by denigrating the graduate student. We can not turn a blue collar into a halo by besmirching a white collar. There is no courage in mocking those with MBAs, no nobility in perpetuating the idea that education is a straight road to moral turpitude.

And Larimore's rhetoric isn't just unhelpful, it's actively hurtful. There's an education crisis in this country, and while that has many causes, one of those is student apathy. And while that has many causes, I am convinced part of it derives from the national pastime of assaulting book learning.

In the middle of this national education crisis, we have a pundit class that uses the adjective "professorial" as a slur directed at Barack Obama. We have politicians who continually tar their opponents with the dreaded "Ivy League" appellation. We have an education crisis and we're telling our children that they shouldn't strive to attend our best colleges, shouldn't strive to achieve advanced degrees, shouldn't strive for a wide-ranging intellectual curiosity.

A character in Caddyshack famously said, "The world needs ditch diggers too." It's true; society doesn't function without plumbers, garbage men and cable guys. But the world needs guys in suits too, it needs guys who went to school for eight years to get that master's degree in business administration or accounting or Eastern European Zoological History. Rhetoric like that coming from Larimore (who, by the way, has a degree in journalism from Ohio University and has contributed to The New York Times) only serves to hurt the country.

Debate Live Blog #2

2008-10-15T19:51:00.038-05:00

9:25 (Debate Over): McCain was on the attack all night, and Obama was on the defensive all night. By most accounts that means McCain won. It's never a good idea in politics to try and play prevent. I wouldn't be shocked to see McCain given a slight advantage by the pundit class tomorrow. But it won't be a big win. It won't be the kind of victory that erases Obama's advantages. Obama, again, looked calm, collected and in control. McCain was angry. He might want to ask his running mate for tips on how to stab a guy while wearing a pleasant smile. McCain walks out of Hostra University a happy camper, but Obama's probably sharing a few high fives with his staff.

9:23: Obama: I don't think America's youth are an interest group, I think they're our future. Why does John McCain hate America? Why does he want to destroy its future?

9:15: Obama takes a sip of water. Is his throat parched? Are McCain's hammer blows making him sweat? Will he collapse in a dehydrated heap?

9:12: McCain appealing to the pro life base: Obama's votes against late-term abortions.

9:10: Obama breaks out Ledbetter. "Hey, still-reluctant Clinton women: Look over here! Vote for me!"

9:08: McCain doesn't want a "litmus test," but he just said that a judge who supported Roe v. Wade wouldn't fit his criteria for a Supreme Court justice.

9:05: McCain just accidentally called Obama "Senator Government." As screw-ups go, you could do a lot worse.

9:03: I think the phrase "fundamental difference" has been used 87 times over these three debates, 60 times by Obama.

9:02: Obama's doing fine, but he's stumbling and pausing more today than he did in the previous two debates.

9:00: Joe The Plumber? Again? Joe's been a bigger part of this debate than William Ayers, Jeremiah Wright and Sarah Palin combined.

8:59: A lengthy healthcare discussion doesn't help McCain. It's just not an issue where people trust Republicans.

8:55: Hey, Hugo Chavez gets a shout-out from McCain. Nice little pivot to foreign policy.

8:53: McCain: You didn't support the Columbian Free Trade Agreement. Obama: But I supported the Peruvian Free Trade Agreement! Uruguay is left out in the cold, I guess.

8:51: McCain: I admire so much Senator Obama's eloquence. Sarcasm has always been the central theme of McCain's campaign.

8:50: Obama's looking at the camera. McCain's looking at Schieffer. (And Obama, which is an improvement for him)

8:47: Well, McCain certainly wore his attacking shoes to tonight's debate. Don't know if anything is landing.

8:45: Oh, interesting move by Obama there. Using Palin's Down Syndrome child to talk about the need for increased funding for autism and other related issues, thus criticizing McCain's spending freeze proposal. A fair point, but awfully dangerous.

8:44: McCain talking eloquently about special needs children. Serious question: what kind of history does he have on that issue?

8:42: Obama answering without mentioning the name "Sarah Palin" even once.

8:41: If that was the extent of the Association Attacks from McCain, there are going to be a lot of pissed conservatives. I don't see how McCain made any headway there.

8:40: Oh, fun question from Schieffer. "Senator Obama, why would the country be better off if your running mate was vice president than if Senator McCain's running mate was vice president?"

8:37: You know, it might not be a good idea for Obama to refer to Bill Ayers as "Mr. Ayers." Just a thought.

8:36: And here is Ayers. And here is the ACORN stuff.

8:35: Obama keeps parrying McCain's campaign-related points with a sentence or two and then pivots to talking about the economy.

8:33: McCain: I'm proud of the people who come to our rallies. He's carrying on his campaign's tactic of alleging that shaking your head at the remarks made at McCain's rallies is the same as attacking every attendee at those rallies.

8:31: No Ayers yet.

8:28: Obama: Let's not talk about the campaign. Let's talk about issues.

8:26: McCain's not playing the Ayers card yet. He is playing the John Lewis card.

8:25: And Schieffer's asking the Ayers question without using his name.

8:21: McCain is really pushing this across-the-board spending freeze. I don't think anyone's fond of that idea. Most importantly, he's being very, very aggressive, both in terms of words and tone. He's worked himself into a bit of a lather. Obama is smiling.

8:19: And the three million dollar projector for the Adler Planetarium is back. It was such a winner in the second debate.

8:16: Schieffer: Which programs will you have to pare down or eliminate because of the financial crisis? Specifically. Obama: I'm going to talk about energy independence. McCain: I'm going to talk about energy independence.

8:11: I don't know how it'll come off, but this "Joe The Plumber" routine is an interesting way of trying to personalize the "victims" of Obama's tax plan. Obama's been trying to talk up the idea of taxing Warren Buffet.

8:09: McCain just spoke extensively about Joe, an Ohio plumber who will be crippled by Obama's tax policies. He's clearly hoping "Joe The Plumber" becomes the star of this debate.

8:08: McCain talks to Obama! Directly! It's a breakthrough!

8:07: The candidates just talked about their plans for the mortgage crisis. That's four minutes of my life I'll never get back.

8:03: Excuse the callousness, but is this the third straight debate where McCain has started the evening by expressing sympathy for some august personage sitting in a hospital?

8:02: Big question of the night: Is Bob Schieffer going to hector McCain and Obama to talk to each other?

8:00: Brian Williams' backdrop includes a massive amount of Roman columns. John Dickerson is now deriding NBC as elitist and condescending.

Yes, it's that time again. We're about eight minutes away from the final presidential debate of the election season. If you can't feel the tension, you're not even human.

MCCAIN!

OBAMA!

NEXT ON CNN!

A little housekeeping, mainly directed at a certain anonymous commenter who had trouble figuring out the timestamps in the first live blog. My headquarters are in cosmopolitan DeSoto, KS. DeSoto is located in the Central Time Zone. Locations within the Central Time Zone are one hour behind locations in the Eastern Time Zone. So if the time stamps you see in this blog do not synch up with the time in your home, do not panic.

Same Bat Time, Same Bat Channel

2008-10-13T22:04:00.004-05:00

The 961st debate of the presidential election season will be held Wednesday night at Hofstra University in New York. At this point you know well the participants: John McCain, the great American hero who spent five and a half years locked in a North Kansas City prison camp where he was forced to watch Neifi Perez take batting practice on a daily basis. He was only able to survive by repeatedly carving the word "maverick" into the bamboo of his cage. And then there's the Democrat Barack Obama, born in Hope Memorial Hospital in Hope City, the capitol of Hope Island, America's 50th state. In college, Obama majored in Sauntering Up To Attractive Women And Making Them Swoon By Saying "Hey, How You Doin'?"

Wednesday night they'll discuss the important issues. The economic crisis. Global climate change. That guy in 7th grade Obama ate lunch with one day who eventually racked up over $3,400 in unpaid parking tickets in...San Francisco. It's all going to be on the table when McCain, Obama and CBS anchor Bob Schieffer shoot the breeze. Seriously, they're going to be sitting down. God only knows what surprises that radical format will birth. Maybe McCain will light up a joint and invite Obama to take a hit. There's a glorious rainbow of possibilities.

You can find more witty insights like the ones you just read Wednesday night, when I'll be liveblogging the debate. It will be my second liveblog; I skipped the second presidential debate because I was generously volunteering at my high school alma mater, and I skipped the vice presidential debate because I wanted to.

But this affair's interesting in that I don't know what to expect. You may recall that I expected McCain to come into the second debate and attack Obama. He did attack, but not with any verve and not with any original lines. He didn't mention William Ayers. He later explained that the issue never came up "in the flow of the debate," and while that was kind of a pathetic post-debate rationalization, it had the advantage of being true. None of the audience members asked about Ayers. None of them asked a question that could conceivably be viewed as dealing with Ayers. McCain's not skillful enough to pivot away from the question and hit his (completely unrelated) talking points, and he's not shameless enough to ape his running mate's tactic of openly announcing that she's ignoring the question.

So we'll see what happens Wednesday. To put it bluntly, McCain is losing the election. If things stay on their normal course, with the remaining 20+ days sort of teeter-tottering in the usual fashion, with Obama winning one day and McCain winning the next, McCain loses. He needs something out of the ordinary. The other team is preternaturally poised and disciplined. They're not going to give you an epic mistake on a silver platter. McCain's going to have to manufacture a gamechanger out of whole cloth.

Wednesday's his best chance to do that, but it's not going to be easy. Obama's shown in two debates that he can appear calm and presidential, which is more than you can say for McCain. If McCain wants to do something with the Ayers or Jeremiah Wright cards, he has to do it Wednesday.

How and where to bring it up are the difficult questions. McCain's camp desperately wants Schieffer to ask about Ayers without prompting from their candidate. It would introduce the topic into the debate without McCain having to raise it. If Schieffer doesn't ask the question, McCain has to decide whether he gains or loses from raising the issue without prompting. He's been getting hammered for the frighteningly hostile nature of his recent rallies. If it's perceived that he's doing anything to rile up those supporters, the post-debate stories are going to be unpleasant. Which in turn will make his supporters angrier. Which in turn will make his rallies more frightening. Which in turn will make the stories unpleasant. Which in turn...

Obama's strategy is the same as its been for the past month: throw some jabs, parry the minor attacks and dance away from the big punches. He's winning. The entire structure of the race is in his favor. Some will demand aggression from him, but that's not Obama's style, and considering what the campaign has overcome to reach this point, I'm going to give them the benefit of the doubt on tactics.

T-Gone?

2008-10-12T22:59:00.005-05:00

The front page of the sports section in today's Kansas City Star was dominated by two stories: Missouri's upset loss to Oklahoma State and the revelation that all-world tight end Tony Gonzalez is asking for a trade to a contender.

It's obviously a big deal here. Joe Posnanski, one of my favorite writers, wrote a column. So did Jason Whitlock, who is not one of my favorite writers. It's a big deal because Gonzalez is the only effective weapon on a brutally dysfunctional offense. Larry Johnson may or may not be a good runner, but it's impossible to determine with this offensive line and lack of receiving threats. Tony Gonzalez is the only player who puts any kind of fear into opposing defenses. Remove him from the equation and there is literally no one on that offense worth watching.

What bone will Brodie Croyle break today? Will Jamaal Charles break that swing pass for three yards or will he be stopped for no gain? Dantrell Savage: Great Receiver or The Greatest Receiver?

On another level, it really doesn't matter all that much. The Chiefs are a very bad football team with Tony Gonzalez at tight end. They're going to be a very bad football team if Gonzalez is traded. The difference between three wins and one win is inconsequential, except insofar as it relates to the draft. It would be nice for the Chiefs to get the number one overall pick and have their choice of Michael Oher, Andre Smith or whatever elite player strikes their fancy. Trade Tony, keep Tony, nothing of importance will change.

But this just seems like it would be another hammerblow for a fanbase and a city that have suffered so much athletic misery. Kimble Anders in 1993. Steve Bono in 1995. Elvis Grbac and John Elway in 1997. Peyton Manning in 2003. The years between those postseason disasters have been filled with football that was usually boring, occasionally schizophrenic but always mediocre. And it's not like Kansas City has been able to turn to the local Major League Baseball team for excitement.

And Gonzalez was nothing if not exciting. Since being drafted in 1997, he's been Kansas City's rock. He fought through double and triple teams, reeled in wobbly, inaccurate passes thrown by a bevvy of undistinguished quarterbacks. No one fought harder than Gonzalez to bring the town a championship.

But his appeal extended beyond the playing field. Gonzalez wasn't really a Kansas City kind of star, but that's what made him special. It's not that the Chiefs lacked great players...well, OK, it is that the Chiefs lacked great players, but they did have a few. The thing is, guys like Trent Green and Priest Holmes, while fantastic players and good individuals, were very much Kansas City stars: they did their jobs well, went about their lives pleasantly, didn't provide any distractions or draw the spotlight. That fit in well with the town's practiced demeanor.

But Gonzalez was a New York or Los Angeles kind of star. He was a big city, coastal star in a small market, Midwestern town. He's handsome, charismatic and willing to speak his mind. He enjoyed the clubs, the bars and the women. He wasn't obnoxious about it and he was never in the police blotter, but he did bring a little bit of Hollywood to Kansas City. As much as Kansas Citians enjoy their conspicuous geniality, it's nice to have that spark, that tiny reminder of a lifestyle most here (politely) shun.

Florida 51,LSU 21

2008-10-11T22:51:00.003-05:00

I went through a cynic phase in high school. It was nothing flashy or ostentatious. I didn't do the Goth thing, didn't write (much) angsty poetry about the futility of existence. I just made it a point to tell everyone who asked (or, really, didn't ask) that I was, at heart, a cynic, a pessimist. I said cynical things, smirked knowingly when others expressed optimism and generally looked down my nose at my less enlightened classmates.

It was a front, of course, the somewhat pathetic manner in which my teenage rebellion manifested. Some booze, some smoke, some have unprotected sex with multiple partners. I quoted Nietzsche. Safer for me, but probably more annoying to my teachers.

The reality is, I'm an idealist at heart. Not a foolish idealist, but still, I'm someone who generally expects good things to happen. So while there's a fair amount to nitpick about Florida's evisceration of the third-ranked LSU Tigers (no quarterback pressure, issues in the secondary, a somewhat schizophrenic passing game), I'm going to ignore them. And shout very, very loudly.

Because this was an extraordinary performance, a game that featured top-notch performances from multiple players and just about every unit. Maligned offensive coordinator Dan Mullen called the game flawlessly. The doubtful defensive line didn't get much pressure on QB Jarrett Lee but dominated LSU's massive offensive line on just about every running play. Florida's patchwork, struggling 0-line repeatedly pancaked a vaunted defense.

And most importantly, the Gators continually gashed LSU in the running game, and they did it with Percy Harvin running the ball just twice. The hero was diminutive speed demon Jeff Demps, who put up 129 yards on 10 carries, scored a touchdown and broke a long run of 42 yards. Demps is listed at 5-8, 176 pounds, and he's probably an inch or two shorter. And yet Mullen and Urban Meyer were able to repeatedly run him between the tackles for great yardage. His long run came on an option play, but Demps was no perimeter gimmick. If he's still not an every down, 20+ carry back, he's shown he can be used as a normal part of a normal offense.

Demps was joined by fellow diminutive speed demon Chris Rainey (listed at 5-9, 185), who gained 66 yards on 11 carries and also spent most of the night running between the tackles. Rarely seen senior Kestahn Moore added 23 yards on four late game carries, Harvin and Brandon James contributed solid yardage on two carries apiece and Tim Tebow, while gaining only 22 yards, consistently made the right decision on Meyer's beloved zone read plays. All of it was made possible by the aforementioned offensive line.

Tebow wasn't flawless, but he was energized and generally on his game. There are still some kinks to work out in Florida's passing attack; Tebow completed 6 of his 14 passes to Harvin, and misfired on a couple throws despite having superior protection all night long. Even his 70-yard TD pass to Harvin on the game's opening drive was a product of a stable pocket and a misplay by the LSU defender who tipped the ball right to Harvin. But that's nitpicking. He completed two passes apiece to Riley Cooper and Deonte Thompson and delivered an absolute strike to Louis Murphy on a deep ball in the fourth quarter.

The big accomplishment defensively was bottling up the heretofore unstoppable Charles Scott, who gained just 35 yards on 12 carries. Scott had no holes through which to run, no daylight toward which he could scamper. The Florida defensive line, buoyed by the addition of prodigal lineman Torrey Davis and Medical Miracle Brandon Antwine, pushed around LSU's offense all night long. As I mentioned, they didn't have much of a pass rush; the Gators picked up two sacks, but both game in the fourth quarter with the game decided and one of those came from a blitzing Janoris Jenkins. But Meyer will take that performance every Saturday if he can get it. He must be feeling a lot better about the chances of containing Knowshon Moreno on November 1.

The secondary's performance was iffy. Joe Haden, who has done yeoman's work all season and who can be forgiven a transgression or two, was consistently beaten by Brandon LaFell. Safeties Ahmad Black and Major Wright played no role, with the exception of one Reggie Nelson-esque hit from Wright in the third quarter. The Tigers racked up 241 yards of passing, and while a bunch of those yards came with the game out of reach, it's not a good statistic. Linebacker Brandon Spikes was Florida's best pass defender. He intercepted Lee twice and returned the second pick for a touchdown. (After which he punted the ball into the stands and drew a 15-yard penalty. On the plus side he got impressive hang time)

Florida still has issues on kickoffs. Considering Meyer's obsessive emphasis on special teams, it's unfathomable that the Gators consistently find themselves tackling opposing returners on the 35 or 40-yard line. UF tried three different kickoff men (Caleb Sturgis, Greg Taussig and Jonathan Phillips, though the latter has earned a safe conduct pass with his flawless place kicking), and none of them could do the job effectively.

The Gators jumped out to a 20-0 lead, but saw their advantage cut to 20-14 after LSU scored on the last drive of the first half and the first drive of the second half. It looked for all the world like a replay of last year's Baton Rouge Nightmare, where UF blew a 17-7 fourth quarter lead against the then-undefeated Tigers.

Tebow wasn't having it. He led the Gators down the field on the ensuing drive and ended it with just his third rushing touchdown of the season. He didn't put up the kind of numbers that would have rocketed him back into Heisman contention, but Chase Daniel and Sam Bradford both lost today, so the situation isn't completely hopeless.

Delayed Debate Reaction

2008-10-07T23:21:00.005-05:00

As mentioned in a previous post, I missed the first hour of tonight's debate. I caught the final half hour on radio, locked myself in an isolation booth when it ended and watched the repeat on CSPAN. This post is written without any outside influence; I've deliberately avoided any debate reaction or spin so that I can write this up "clean."

The verdict: excuse me if I repeat my take on the previous two debates, but that was roughly a draw. Nothing important changed. No dynamics were shifted. And when the dynamic is so dramatically in favor of one candidate, that candidate is perfectly fine with the status quo.

I was wrong about McCain's strategy. He was tough and threw punches, but they were largely policy-oriented, standard Republican punches. Obama's a big-government liberal, he's inexperienced, he was wrong about The Surge (TM), etc. Nothing terribly innovative there. William Ayers wasn't mentioned. Tony Rezko wasn't mentioned. Jeremiah Wright's name didn't come within a country mile of Belmont University in Nashville. (And by the way, why are these three debates being held in Mississippi and Tennessee, two solid red states, and New York, a solid blue state? Ohio, Florida, Virginia or Pennsylvania don't have colleges to host these things?)

What I didn't take into account was the chilling effect the debate's format would have. It's easy to attack your opponent on the stump. You're speaking to huge crowds of enthusiastic supporters; there's no one to grimace when you tell a "Yo' mama" joke about the other guy. Even a traditional debate features questions from a stoic, stone-faced moderator. When the questions come from Joe Sixpack or Sarah HockeyMom, it's tougher to insult your opponent. You've got to look the questioner in the eye while you attack. The psychological effect is an important one.

There weren't even any moments on par with Obama's "You were wrong" list in the first debate or Joe Biden's emotional speech at the end of the VP debate.

Obama, for his part, is clearly playing a bit of Dean Smith's Four Corners offense. Stay disciplined, don't make mistakes, don't give the other side any ammunition when they've resorted to throwing their guns at you. It's not an inspiring performance, but it might be a winning performance, and right now that's more important.

Obama's goal is to make it obvious that he knows what he's talking about. He wants to show that America has no need to fear the prospect of an Obama Administration. And as I've posted before, it's not a difficult sell right now, given the economic climate and the low opinion most hold of the Republican party.

I'm now off to check out the pundit reaction and see where I'm wrong.

EDIT: And I've already found one thing I forgot to mention in the original write-up, this one brought to mind by the excellent Joan Walsh over at Salon. There was a strange moment when McCain was defending his votes on alternative energy by criticizing an energy bill that was festooned with pork. In doing so, he said, "And you know who voted for it? That one." I thought it was rather bizarrely condescending to refer to Obama like that. Not sure what McCain was thinking about there.

Wherein I Realize That Volunteerism Is A Sham

2008-10-06T00:13:00.003-05:00

Both of you anxiously anticipating a liveblog of Tuesday's presidential debate will be, like my various math teachers, severely disappointed. I've volunteered to help my old high school debate team prepare for next weekend's tournament. Yes, I'm missing a debate to help prepare for a debate. It's irony worthy of Sophocles.

I suspect there'll be a TV or two at the old high school Tuesday (Go Shawnee Mission West!) showing McCain-Obama: Part Deux, but I won't be observing with my usual religious fervor. Expect a post after the debate once I get a chance to review the transcript and watch some video.

It's a shame I won't be able to give this debate the attention it deserves, because I suspect there will be some fireworks in this one. John McCain's entering the 11th round of this fight trailing on all cards. He needs a knockout, and he's going to come out throwing hay makers. Several published reports indicate that the McCain campaign, facing national tracking polls that indicate Obama's up anywhere from six to 11 points and a truly frightening electoral map, intends to dial up the attacks.

Those attacks are going to include the standard Republican attack lines ("Tax and spend liberal!"), but they're largely aimed at the details of Obama's past. Namely, his former associations and friendships. Sarah Palin, Alaska Governor and the most adorable scamp in the history of American politics ("Aw, Sarah just mocked community organizing as a worthless endeavor. What a troublemaker!"), fired the first shot Saturday with a particularly nasty attack focusing on Obama's relationship with William Ayers.

It's not going to end there. Tuesday's going to be the primetime rollout of that strategy. McCain's going to use this "townhall meeting," his preferred forum, to launch the personal attacks. The only question is whether he'll be able to look Obama in the eyes when he does so.

Obama, for his part, isn't going into the debate with any extraordinary ambitions. He was cool and cautious in the first debate, didn't wander far from his comfort zone and still won over most independents. This is just a guess, but I think most undecideds are looking for reasons to vote Obama. They're anxious to be won over. And so long as Obama doesn't give them any reason to doubt, he will win them over. He "won" the first debate by showing a solid command of the issues and, for lack of a better phrase, looking presidential.

He'll be a little more aggressive Tuesday, but not nearly enough to satiate the bloodlust of the liberal base. Whatever. We'll get over it. His challenge is going to be keeping his cool and remaining presidential in the face of McCain's attacks. And yet, he doesn't want to be too cool. If McCain attacks him, it won't do to just smile the insult away. He'll need to show a little fire.

But, again, not too much fire. He wants to convey "spirited," not "militant." That's his balancing act. Obama's in the dominant position right now, but his task for Tuesday is slightly more difficult than McCain's. The Arizona senator is just going to attack. He's not even going to worry about coming off as hostile; that ship sailed a long, long time ago.

Still, McCain's bar is higher. Another average performance, another "draw," and his hill gets a little steeper. He needs a big-time performance.

Florida 38, Arkansas 7

2008-10-04T16:26:00.002-05:00

File this under "Good News/Bad News."

The good news was pretty abundant. Most impressive was Florida's offense, which had its most balanced and best overall performance of the season. Four players (Chris Rainey, Jeff Demps, Tim Tebow and Percy Harvin) received significant carries. Two players (Rainey and Demps) went over 100 yards. Eight players caught passes; Louis Murphy led the receiving corps with five receptions for 70 yards, Harvin and Brandon James both caught three, Carl Moore, Deonte Thompson and Aaron Hernandez all caught three and Demps and Riley Cooper chipped in with one apiece.

The Gators finally pivoted away from their "Tebow-Harvin-Harvin-Tebow-Harvin-Hernandez-Tebow-Tebow-Harvin" offense. Percy accounted for only 74 of Florida's 514 total yards. Urban Meyer and offensive coordinator Dan Mullen opened up the offense to take advantage of the bevy of playmakers Florida possesses.

Demps scored on a 36-yard touchdown run in the second quarter to push Florida's lead to 14-0. His was a pretty simple run: find a hole and run as fast as you can through it. When you're an Olympics-caliber sprinter, that works pretty well. Rainey put the game away in the fourth quarter with an extraordinary run that rivaled any of work of art crafted by Harvin during his tenure in Gainesville. Rainey bedeviled a couple Razorbacks with a spin move and simply blew away the remaining defenders. Demps would add one more long touchdown run to give the Gators their winning margin; it came late in the fourth quarter after I left the sports bar. I'm sure it was quite lovely.

Tebow was 17 of 26 for 217 yards and two touchdowns; he looked more comfortable than he did in any other game. He did throw his first interception in 204 attempts, but even that was less a matter of poor decision-making (he had Harvin streaking down the sideline) and more a situation where he just didn't put enough air on the ball to loft it over a linebacker.

He felt comfortable because UF's devastated offensive line did an admirable job in less than ideal circumstances. Left guard Jim Tartt was out with the same shoulder injury that's been tormenting him since 2006. Tartt's two back-ups, Maurice Hurt and Marcus Gilbert, were also out. All of that pushed redshirt sophomore Carl Johnson, a former big-time recruit, natural tackle and videogame star, into the position. He did his job, as did the rest of the line. Tebow was sacked only once, and I can remember only one other play where he faced significant pressure.

Jonathan Phillips nailed yet another difficult field goal.

So, the bad news. All of the above is somewhat mitigated by the fact that Arkansas is really damn bad. The Razorbacks' defense was ranked 65th in the country coming into the game. By comparison, their hated rival Arkansas State ranked 52nd.

But hey, the Gators still shredded that defense. More troubling was UF's relative inability to handle Arkansas' 73rd-ranked offense. The Razorbacks scored only once and put up a respectable 361 total yards, but Florida's defense didn't play as well as those statistics. Diminutive Arkansas running back Michael Smith gashed UF 20 times for 133 yards and a touchdown. They weren't able to tackle him for a loss once. That's not terribly encouraging with LSU and Charles Scott next on the schedule.

Casey Dick was 24 of 38 for 220 yards. While the Gators recorded an impressive four sacks, those were the only four plays where they were able to pressure the heretofore small-in-stature Dick. More often than not Arkansas' Dick was unmolested as he sat comfortably in the pocket, patiently waiting for a receiver to come open across the middle.

And the penalties! Oy, the penalties. Arkansas was flagged nine times for 75 yards, and several of those penalties killed their momentum on big drives. But that stat makes the Razorbacks look like saints compared to Florida. The Gators were penalized 12 times for 110 yards.

On one particularly infuriating set of plays, the Gators managed to commit a penalty on at least four consecutive snaps. Florida started its first drive of the second quarter on its own one-yard line. It took the Gators just four plays to push the ball to the 39-yard line.

Then the Gators were penalized for holding. First and 20 on the 29-yard line.

The Gators were penalized for illegal formation. First and 25 on the 24-yard line.

The Gators were penalized for holding. First and 35 on the 14-yard line.

Shockingly, Florida wasn't able to convert. But in a miraculous stroke of luck, Michael Smith fumbled the ensuing punt, giving the ball to Florida on the Arkansas 16-yard line.

The Gators were penalized for illegal hands to the face. First and 25 from the 31-yard line.

The Gators were penalized for a false start. First and 30 from the 36-yard line.

Demps bailed out his teammates with his first touchdown run, but LSU and Georgia aren't going to give up 36-yard runs to true freshmen.

Still, road games against unranked SEC West opponents have historically given the Gators fits. You'll take a 31-point victory every day. The only important downside to the game was another potential injury to Harvin, who sprained his ankle in the first quarter, played the rest of the game and sort of limped around the field at times. If he's not at 100 percent, the Gators have little chance of beating LSU.

St. Louis: Full of Number Two

2008-10-02T21:26:00.003-05:00

Yes, a poop joke. Have I told you about my deep-seated faith in the power of beautiful language?

Anyway, I think my pre-debate prediction was largely on target. (The accuracy of your predictions is always good when you're the judge) Nothing extraordinary happened tonight. Sarah Palin didn't look like a complete amateur and Joe Biden didn't call Palin "sweetie," "babe," "dear" or "dame." So it was a success on all fronts.

That said, I don't give either of them positive reviews. Palin still rambled at times, and though avoiding any Couric-esque failures, she didn't exactly seem like someone with an iron grip on the intricacies of issues. Her answer on the role of the vice presidency was, frankly, rather frightening. She expressed her support for Dick Cheney's philosophy, and I found that troublesome. She also completely avoided the issue of providing benefits to gay couples, and moderator Gwen Ifill let her get away with a standard conservative bromide about keeping marriage as a union between man and woman. Simply as a reporter I was disappointed with Ifill in that exchange.

She quite skillfully played the persecuted, put-upon down home girl card. It annoyed me, but as she's said before, she doesn't care what people with journalism degrees think. It'll probably play well overall, and that's what matters.

Biden was, above all else, dull, and perhaps he erred a bit too much on the side of caution. With the exception of one reference to the "Bridge to Nowhere" he restricted his jabs to John McCain and largely left Palin alone. It was dull, as I said, but it was certainly the safe option. He didn't give the McCain camp any ammo for an attack ad or a vitriolic press release.

He stumbled a few times with his wording, mixing up a couple names and having to correct himself once or twice. He was frequently left in the difficult position of having to use his 90 seconds to respond to three or four different allegations, which diluted his overall point. Biden did have an excellent moment at the end of the debate when he discussed the tragedy that had befallen his family. He showed real emotion and pathos.

In a lot of ways Palin's responsibility was similar to Barack Obama's in last week's presidential debate. He had to convince people that he had the bare competence needed to run the country. She had to convince people that she had the bare competence needed to be one heartbeat away from running the country. I don't think she did as good a job in that as Obama did, but she cleared the bar set for her.

Another Programming Note

2008-10-01T14:49:00.002-05:00

I will not be liveblogging tomorrow's VP debate, for the simple reason that I don't think there will be anything terribly consequential said or done.

The McCain campaign is trying to drive expectations for Sarah Palin down to the 10th ring of Hell. Those stories coming out in The Wall Street Journal and other venues quoting anonymous aides as being terrified of what she might say seem way too convenient. Frankly, they're reminiscent of an episode of The West Wing from its last season when Leo leaked footage of his deliberately awful debate prep performances. Campaign journalists are smart enough to recognize what's going on, but even subconsciously all that spin is going to sink in. If Palin gets through the night without mispronouncing a foreign leader's name the performance will be hailed as a tour de force.

Joe Biden's staffers, for their part, are probably going to slip some Valium into their candidate's pre-debate bottle of water. He'll be so afraid of coming off as condescending and sexist that he'd probably hesitate to speak up if Palin talks about how the conflict in Georgia endangers the several million people who live in Atlanta. He'll take the standard shots at John McCain, try to link him to President Bush, but he'll probably just leave Palin alone and hope she repeats her performance from the Couric interviews. As I said above, I don't think that will happen.

And then there's the moderator, PBS' Gwen Ifill, a journalist I like an awful lot. The right is already wailing and gnashing its teeth over the book Ifill plans to release in a couple months. One of McCain's surrogates has ominously threatened unnamed punishment should Ifill dare to ask Palin "gotcha" questions. I don't know how all of that will affect Ifill's performance. I hope not at all. But you can never tell.

So no liveblogging. I will, however, have post-debate reaction here. So look for that if your life is sad and pathetic.

This Is Why They Call It Political SCIENCE

2008-09-29T20:11:00.002-05:00

A few months I pilloried Kansas Senator Pat Roberts for running a campaign ad that featured awful writing. Well, in the interest of maintaining balance, here's a link to opponent Jim Slattery's newest ad on America's healthcare crisis.

I'm...I'm not really sure how to respond to that.

I Hate Smart Sportswriters

2008-09-28T19:05:00.003-05:00

Stewart Mandel's a sharp dude. I like him a lot. His college football book "Bowls, Polls and Tattered Souls" is a lot of fun. He's a fine writer and a credit to his profession. So it kind of sucks when he says something negative about your team.

"2. That the Urban Meyer aura is wearing off. He arrived from Utah as the sport's most intriguing new coaching figure, and he backed up the hype almost immediately by delivering a national title in just his second season. But following the Gators' inexplicable home loss to Ole Miss on Saturday, Meyer's team has gone just 6-4 over its past 10 SEC games. Most puzzling of all is how the coach's once-feared offense -- the one that was expected to truly take off once he had "his own guys" -- has regressed considerably in Tim Tebow's second year at the helm.

While Tebow, whose rushing stats are way down from his Heisman season, is the easy scapegoat, the bigger mystery is how, despite four loaded recruiting classes, there are seemingly so few weapons around him. On Saturday, stars Tebow and Percy Harvin combined for 401 of the Gators' 443 yards. Where were RBs Chris Rainey and Emmanuel Moody (six combined carries)? And how is it that none of Florida's young pass-catchers have stepped up to fill the void left by Andre Caldwell and Cornelius Ingram? Until they do, the Gators will be very predictable."

Mandel's point is an uncomfortable one, but it's also legitimate. I caught some flak on another board for saying here that if the Gators go 9-4 again this year, Meyer might find his seat getting a little hot.

I stood by that then and I stand by it now, and Mandel touches on why. Meyer's put together four recruiting classes, three of them very highly ranked, and yet the list of Florida's weapons includes just two names: Tim Tebow and Percy Harvin. Aaron Hernandez is working his way onto the list.

Make no mistake, luring guys like Tebow and Harvin to Gainesville is an extraordinary accomplishment. But it's hard to compete for SEC Championships with just two studs. If you look at the other skill position players recruited by Meyer, there's just not a lot that remains.

Louis Murphy's a solid player and decent deep threat, but no one really game plans for him. Kestahn Moore was a decent enough back his first three years, but he was never a playmaker and he's seen his touches fall to nothing this year. David Nelson is a complete non-entity. Nyan Boateng transferred after the 2006 season and did nothing of consequence his first two years.

Harvin and Tebow were signed in 2006. Also signed that year was Mon Williams, who's done nothing in three years. Riley Cooper's a starter this season but has been wildly inconsistent and can't be relied on in third down situations. Brandon James is a dynamic returner and an unquestionable recruiting success, but his role in the offense is a limited one. Jarred Fayson transferred after not being given the same touches as Harvin. Chevon Walker did nothing for two years and bolted town.

Deonte Thompson was a five star receiver and big "get" in 2007, but he redshirted last year and hasn't done much of anything this year. It's way too early to write him off, of course. Bo Williams didn't even wait two years to try and get in the running back rotation before he transferred. Chris Rainey has shown flashes of potential, but after a great first game against Hawaii he's barely shown up this year. As mentioned above, Hernandez has been a success and looks like Tebow's second-favorite target.

Last year's recruiting class included TJ Lawrence, Omarius Hines, Jeff Demps, Carl Moore and Frankie Hammond. All have the potential to become great players, especially Demps with his mind-blowing speed, but none of them are Julio Jones-AJ Green caliber playmakers, the kind who can come in and make an immediate impact.

All of that leaves Florida with a shockingly thin collection of playmakers on the offensive side. Combined with a surprisingly porous offensive line, and you've got a unit that operates about as smoothly as an East German car.

Let's be fair here: Florida's situation isn't disastrous. The Gators control their own destiny in the SEC: win out and they're in the championship game. Most teams don't have the luxury of Tim Tebow and Percy Harvin. The improved defense will help Florida win games even when the offense sputters. (For example, the Gators wouldn't have won this year's Tennessee or Miami games with last year's defense)

But Meyer's inability or unwillingness to find options outside the Tebow-Harvin duo is troubling. And with 1/3 of the regular season down the tubes, it seems unlikely that he'll be able to conjure up playmakers out of thin air.

Mississippi 31, Florida 30

2008-09-27T15:43:00.003-05:00

Next time John McCain mentions the relatively low number of nuclear meltdowns in the US, point him to this game.

I think I'll avoid GatorCountry.com for a couple weeks. That was simply a complete breakdown in every aspect of the game. Florida put up the least impressive 443 yards of offense I've ever seen. The defense, frequently put in untenable situations, eventually snapped in a way reminiscent of the 2007 season. And even UF's heretofore untouchable special teams cracked at crucial moments.

But the game was really lost at the beginning of the second half. Ole Miss punched Florida in the mouth at the beginning of the game, and the Gators responded well. The defense stiffened, the offense gelled a bit and Florida scored 17 unanswered points. UF entered the half up 17-7, thanks in no small part to the idiocy of Mississippi's offense in the closing moments.

Then comes the second half kick-off, a Harvin rush for eight yards and the comfortable victory appeared on the horizon. That's when the officials started slathering butter on the ball and Florida started falling apart.

Harvin fumbled and the Rebels took over on Florida's 34-yard-line. The defense held Mississippi to a field goal. Next possession, Tebow botched a zone read handoff to Brandon James and the Rebels recovered a fumble on UF's 18-yard-line. This time Ole Miss punched it in, tying the score at 17-17.

After a couple inconclusive drives, Ole Miss used their "Wild Rebel" formation (and God, how I grew tired of hearing that phrase) to break Dexter McCluster for a 40-yard touchdown run. Florida missed a number of tackles, allowing McCluster to break free.

Down 24-17, the Gators managed to string together a drive that would be punctuated by Tebow's second touchdown run of the game and the season. So, 24-24, pull yourself together and get the win.

Nope. Two drives later former Florida commit Jevan Snead hit Shay Hodge for 86 yards, the kind of play that tormented the Gators last year. Major Wright botched his coverage assignment and Hodge practically jogged 50 yards for the score.

To UF's credit, they didn't back down. On their very next drive the Gators were able to march down the field and score, thanks to a rejuvenated Percy Harvin. 31-30, kick the extra point, stop Ole Miss, score on your last drive and go home with a win.

Nope. After years of blocking kicks and playing great on special teams, the Gators' line buckled. Ole Miss blocked the extra point, leaving it a 31-30 game.

Again, UF's defense rose to the occasion and stymied Mississippi's attempt to run out the clock. Florida got the ball back with 2:05 left and Tebow had his Heisman moment in front of him.

Things were going so well. Taking over at their own 22-yard-line, Florida streaked into Ole Miss territory with three plays. On first and 10 from the Rebel 41, Tebow's line picked up a blitz and the Heisman winner picked out Louis Murphy streaking wide open down the middle.

And the Heisman winner missed his receiver by a step. That seemed to break Florida's back. Tebow missed Harvin on second down. On third down, Brandon James took an option pitch and scampered nine yards, leaving the Gators with a difficult situation: fourth and one on Mississippi's 32. Meyer didn't trust his kicker to boot a 49-yard field goal, and probably with good reason. So you turn to Tim Tebow, Heisman winner, Superman, The Circumciser. Surely he could gain one yard and move the chains.

Nope. Florida's offensive line had no push. Tebow never got close to the first down marker.

Something has to change. The special teams will play well. It's what they do. The defense had its struggles, giving up 325 yards, but they were left in impossible situations. Generally Florida's defenders acquitted themselves well.

No, the problems remain largely on the offensive side of the ball. Yes, they picked up 443 yards and 319 through the air. But once again the offensive line allowed entirely too much pressure (three sacks) and once again Tebow didn't handle that pressure well. Today you couldn't even blame exotic blitz packages like the ones Miami schemed. Ole Miss simply beat a much-hyped offensive line with its front four.

And the Gators still do not have a diversified offense. Harvin ran the ball 10 times. Emmanuel Moody carried it only three times (all in the first half) for 16 yards. Chris Rainey had three carries. Brandon James, Kestahn Moore and Jeff Demps all carried once.

Meyer needs to pick a running back and stick with him. That guy is probably Moody, but for the love of God, choose someone.

Once again the receiving corps outside of Harvin played no role in the game. Aaron Hernandez continued his good work, hauling in four passes. Louis Murphy also got four balls. Riley Cooper had two catches. Carl Moore and Deonte Thompson were shut out once again.

Before today's, Florida's offense had been unimpressive but at least avoided hurting the team. The Gators didn't turn the ball over, didn't make a lot of mistakes and was generally a complete non-entity. Today, however, Florida moved the ball but also committed three turnovers and hurt its defense on several occasions.

If there's good news from this debacle, it's the resurrection of a healthy, dynamic Percy Harvin. He caught 13 passes for 186 yards and ran free over the middle most of the game. He gained 82 yards on 10 carries, a much better rushing average than he had posted in his first two games and closer to the figures he had put up in 2006 and 2007. That should, in theory, open up the field for other playmakers, assuming they exist.

Florida's road to a SEC Championship remains perfectly clear. Win out and they're in Atlanta. It would be nice if Alabama could travel to Athens and beat Georgia tonight, but the Gators still control their own destiny. But right now, it's hard to imagine them beating LSU, Georgia or even Vanderbilt.

Debate Live Blog

2008-09-26T19:50:00.035-05:00

(All times Central)

9:39 (Debate over):Instant reaction: no clear winner or loser. McCain had his moments, especially at the end of the debate when he sort of rolled over Obama on a couple issues. (Iran, namely) I'm interested to see how that plays. Generally, however, Obama gave a good account of himself on foreign policy. If this debate was about convincing Americans that he wasn't a little boy trying to sit at the grown-up table, it was a success. He didn't look scared or intimidated. And the first 30 or 40 minutes, focused almost entirely on the financial crisis, played into Obama's strengths.

If McCain performed poorly, it might have ended his campaign. He avoided that. But I think Obama avoided any sort of blunder that would endanger his front-runner status.

9:27: That's twice now where McCain has verbally steamrolled Obama and Obama has pretty much smiled it away. I don't know how that'll look, whether Obama will come off as controlled and patient or like a doormat.

9:17: McCain just rolled over Obama in an exchange about presidential level meetings. It's not that his arguments had any extraordinary force behind them, but he kept talking and Obama couldn't wriggle his way into the conversation. Lehrer didn't do a great job of shutting down McCain, and Obama wasn't forceful enough.

9:12: Obama has a great response here, but sort of ruins it with the "there's a difference between preconditions and preparations" line. I know what he's saying, but that's too cutesy and Clintonesque.

9:10: And that was a good response. Tough, but realistic. McCain comes back with the argument that Obama will meet with Ahmadinejad.

9:06: McCain's excoriating Iran. Obama has to be careful that he doesn't go overboard in trying to prove that he's "Barack Obama, Friend of Israel And Tough Fighter."

9:02: McCain tells a touching story about a bracelet he was given by the mother of a soldier killed in Iraq. Obama points out his own bracelet, given to him by another mother. This is dangerous: you don't want to play dueling mothers.

8:58: Obama just launched the toughest attack of the night. He said that McCain's plea for vocal caution is rather silly coming from someone who sings songs about bombing Iran.

8:50: I'm biased, but I think this is a good exchange for Obama. He's making the case that the war in Iraq is distracting us from the War on Terror as a whole. He did have to make a difficult argument on a troop funding bill, which has an unfortunate "I voted for it before I voted against it" vibe.

8:46: And he doesn't let him do that. Obama is blasting McCain on a whole series of judgment questions.

8:45: McCain tries to move away from the question of whether the Iraq War was a good idea at all. Obama shouldn't let him do that.

8:43: Did you know that Barack Obama opposed the war from the start?

8:40: McCain's economic plan comes down to cutting spending. Obama ties him to Bush, using the "votes with Bush 90 percent of the time" line.

8:37: McCain slams Obama on offshore oil drilling. Lehrer slams his head on the desk trying to get an answer to his original question about changing priorities after the financial collapse, and Obama misses a chance to fight back on drilling.

8:35: McCain wants to consider a spending freeze on everything but defense, entitlements and veteran's affairs. Obama calls this using a hatchet when a scalpel is needed. And we have our first mention of Iraq!

8:34: There is an Amber Alert in Ottawa, Kansas.

8:31: McCain on Obama's record: It's hard to reach across the aisle from that far on the left.

8:30: All these debate sites are made to look identical. I think they should all these things outdoors, work in some local flavor. Ole Miss has a beautiful campus. Put up a magnolia tree or something.

8:27: The "foreign policy debate" has yet to leave these borders.

8:26: McCain uses the word "festoon." He wins the battle for best word. Obama needs to break out "celerity" if he wants to catch up.

8:25: I like this format so far. They're going back and forth, and Lehrer isn't getting in the way.

8:23: McCain with a nice free market attack on the business tax. He explained that well.

8:21: Obama: Eliminating earmarks alone is not a strategy for helping the middle class. A nice line, maybe mitigating the fact that he just seemed to talk about a line item veto.

8:19: Obama points out that eliminating earmarks won't pay for McCain's corporate tax cuts. Not a bad little slash there. Shoehorn the "McCain cuts taxes for big corporations" argument into an irrelevant question, bring up your own middle class tax cut.

8:19: About 20 minutes in, and McCain hasn't done much attacking.

8:18: McCain just said he'd veto "every spending bill" that crossed his desk. I don't think that's what he was going for.

8:16: I'm tempted to vote for the first candidate to pass on a chance to use the "Main Street vs. Wall Street" meme.

8:15: Lehrer really wants these two to speak directly to each other.

8:13: McCain brings in a barely relevant anecdote about Eisenhower and the Normany invasion. He also says he's caught flak for calling for the SEC chair's resignation, when, in reality, he caught flak for saying he'd like to fire the SEC chair. Which he can't do.

8:11: Lehrer presses the point, but Obama pivots away to praising himself for his foresight. Ditto for McCain.

8:10: Same question to McCain. He doesn't offer a position on any specific plan.

8:07: Lehrer starts by asking Obama about the bailout plan. Obama offers a fairly standard set of Democratic conditions (oversight, limits on executive compensation, equity stake, etc.) and attacks McCain in the process. Nothing terribly specific.

8:03: Lehrer pronounces his last name "Lay-ruh"

8:00: I'm watching this debate on exciting high definition. Obama's mole! McCain's melanoma scars! I can see it all.

7:52: Hello and welcome to the Distressed Reporter laptop, located in lovely DeSoto, KS. From here I'll be live blogging tonight's debate between Senators McCain and Obama. Expect serious analysis, insightful commentary and blatantly partisan spin.

David Brooks is a Sad Panda

2008-09-26T00:29:00.003-05:00

David Brooks likes John McCain. There's nothing surprising about that, of course, but more importantly, there's nothing wrong with that. I've castigated Brooks on a couple occasions for pointless cynicism, so it would be inconsistent and wrong of me to mock him for being genuinely fond of a politician. And considering how genuinely fond I am of Barack Obama, I would only be adding to the world's endless trough of hypocrisy.

Brooks' point, and it's not a ridiculous one, is that McCain is a good man, a serious man, and that we've lost track of that in the crucible of our presidential election. Brooks criticizes McCain for running a campaign with "no central argument," but the rest of the column is largely a paean to Arizona's senior senator. He desperately urges us to remember McCain's basic decency.

On that point I agree with Brooks. McCain's a decent man. It's unfortunate that we've forgotten that. But if McCain wants to blame someone for that lapse in our collective memory, he needs to look in the mirror.

McCain has run a brutal, dishonest, sarcastic, insulting campaign, and he's done so in an election that is guaranteed to be remembered in the annals of our history. Brooks acknowledges this reality. He just doesn't care about it.

And besides, both sides are guilty, so no one's to blame.

Nor is it, primarily, the dishonest ads he is running. My friends in the Obama cheering section get huffy about them, while filtering from their consciousness all the dishonest ads Obama has run — the demagogic DHL ad, the insulting computer ad, the cynical Rush Limbaugh ad, the misleading Social Security ad and so on. If one candidate has sunk lower than the other at this point, I’ve lost track.

Let's get this part of the discussion out of the way early, because Brooks loves to caricature everyone who supports Obama as an unthinking cultist. Yes, Obama has run several deceptive ads. Yes, he has pursued lines of attack on the stump that are misleading. No, those are not acceptable.

Still, we must make no mistake: it was McCain and Steve Schmidt, the Karl Rove acolyte who runs his operation, who poisoned the atmosphere of this election. As Slate's John Dickerson always takes pains to point out, Obama did start the attacks. He was linking McCain to President Bush before the Republican primary results were official and before his own primary battle with Clinton was even close to finished. And yes, Obama did make the unfortunate decision to spurn McCain's offer of several joint town hall meetings.

But I think deep down, David Brooks knows who has fallen deeper into the muck. The astonishing aspect of McCain's campaign is not that it has thrown mud at the opposing camp. Every campaign does that to some extent. What sets the McCain campaign apart is the joy it takes in trying to drive a shiv into the back of Obama's neck.

But Brutus is an honorable man.

When Karl Rove painted Al Gore, a good and decent man, as a serial liar back in 2000, or alleged that decorated war hero John Kerry was a spineless coward unwilling to defend America in 2004, he didn't do it out of any personal animus. He did it because Gore and Kerry were in the way, and those attacks were the best way to remove the obstacles. McCain's group, by contrast, has reveled in nothing so much as mocking and denigrating every aspect of Barack Obama's life.

But Brutus is an honorable man.

It was not Obama who released an ad rife with potentially explosive racial symbolism that accused the opposing candidate of being nothing more than a vacuous, empty-headed celebrity. It was not Obama who kicked dirt in the faces of the millions of young people who were engaged in, and enthusiastic about, the political process for the first time in their lives. It was not Obama who nominated a dangerously incapable and unsuitable woman for the vice presidency and then roared with false outrage when anyone dared question her qualifications.

But Brutus is an honorable man.

And above all else, remember, it was McCain who uttered the most odious assault of the election when he said Obama would "rather lose a war than lose an election." That was McCain's choice. Those were his words. It was John McCain, David Brooks' good and serious man, David Brooks' good and serious man who at the 2004 Republican Convention had urged his party to not treat its opponents as its enemies, it was that man who alleged that his opponent was deliberately advocating a strategy he knew would result in a defeat. That allegation, practically a charge of treason, introduced a toxic element into the campaign. That element would not have existed if McCain had not conjured it.

But Brutus is an honorable man.

I could argue that journalists, men and women like David Brooks, should be on guard for attacks like McCain's, as they would be most vulnerable in a society that treats criticism of the government as treason. But I suspect that's not something David Brooks would have to worry about.

Is John McCain a good man? Probably. A serious man? Probably. But that doesn't redeem his story. That only makes it a tragedy.

A Programming Note

2008-09-25T20:26:00.003-05:00

Should tomorrow's debate go on as scheduled (and that's still my prediction), I'll live blog the event here at Distressed Reporter. Should McCain decide not to attend and the debate becomes some kind of Lehrer-Obama interview or a standard town hall meeting, I'll post some reaction and attempts at analysis.

As I said, I expect McCain to attend. One thing to keep in mind: whatever McCain's motives for suspending his campaign and calling for the debate to be postponed, if he does show up and argue with Obama, he'll be facing remarkably low expectations. After all, Obama had a couple days of intense debate prep. McCain decided against those sessions, and then valiantly took himself off the trail so he could return to Washington to...do whatever it is he's supposed to be doing up there.

As a result, if he shows up, debates respectably and doesn't trip over the microphone cord, he's going to get the benefit of the doubt. On the flip side, Obama, who insisted on the debate, will be expected to show something spectacular.

I definitely won't go so far as to allege that this whole operation was an elaborate attempt at lowering expectations for Friday. That's absurdly Machiavellian. But it is a pleasant side benefit.

The Head Scratcher

2008-09-24T19:28:00.004-05:00

Bizarre, bizarre day on the campaign trail. I wanted to wait a few hours for things to settle down so I could survey the damage; I can do that since I'm not in this to be your one-stop shop for all the breaking political news. I recommend Talking Points Memo or Salon for that.

First, the Times reported that the Bush administration had caved on its bailout package and was willing to limit executive compensation for those companies that participated in the plan. For awhile that looked like the dominant story. Later stories indicated that a preferred version of the package floating around the House included several amendments demanded by the Democratic majority.

Then, John McCain took the extraordinary step of suspending his campaign and calling for a postponement of Friday's presidential debate. The reason? McCain feels like the country would be better served if he winged his way back to Washington to work on the bailout package, a bailout package that seemed to be slowly, but steadily, working its way through the legislative process.

Then the Obama campaign alleged that it was Obama who reached out early in the day to try and forge some kind of joint statement for the two campaigns. Obama said in a news conference that he wanted the debate to go ahead as planned. It was, I thought, a good response, echoing something I was ineloquently saying on another board:

“This is exactly the time when people need to hear from the candidates,” Mr. Obama said.

He added: “Part of the president’s job is to deal with more than one thing at once. In my mind it’s more important than ever.”

The McCain camp then said their candidate would unilaterally skip the debate if a bill was not passed by Friday at 9 PM. Harry Reid said McCain and Obama weren't needed in the capital.

About an hour ago, Obama and McCain both accepted invitations from the president to attend a White House briefing tomorrow.

Deep breath now.

McCain's massive gamble is the story here. What he's trying to do is cast himself as the patriotic statesman, abandoning a selfish campaign to return to his job and save America from a second Great Depression. Barack Obama, in contrast, will continue to plow ahead with his individual desires, forgetting his country and putting himself first. It's a familiar play; the McCain campaign has staged several of those during the election season, and they're getting pretty good at the blocking of it. It's usually part of a double feature with "Bitching About the Media."

But this is a different issue. The American people don't really care about what's said in a presidential debate, barring some kind of extraordinary gaffe or witty rejoinder. But they're deeply attached to the idea of the debates, the theater of them. As Obama points out, this is a moment when people really do want and need to hear from the country's two most important politicians. (Sit down, Mr. President.)

McCain might be able to cajole Obama and the Commission on Presidential Debates into delaying Friday's debate, possibly pushing it back to the date currently occupied by the Vice Presidential affair. I hope Obama stands firm on this, and I suspect he will.

Here's McCain's quandary: he cannot, cannot, cannot unilaterally withdraw from that debate. He cannot allow Obama to stand alone on a stage and answer questions from Jim Lehrer. So he better hope the Congress has a bailout passed. I suspect he has reason to believe that'll be the case.

My guess? We'll have our debate. Obama won't officially suspend his campaign, but he'll fly up to Washington, do the Senator thing, get his photo taken huddled with white-haired economists and do his debate prep in the evening. McCain will do much the same.

In A Shocking Development...

2008-09-24T12:55:00.002-05:00

Democrats Cave on Offshore Drilling.

You know, I sometimes wonder what the point of possessing a Congressional majority is when said majority bends over every time the Republicans say "boo."

I agree with Alex Koppelman over at Salon's War Room when he says that he doesn't know who this helps in the election. It does seem to rob McCain and Palin of their insipid, slightly creepy "Drill, baby, drill!" catch phrase, but, as Koppelman points out, it seems to lend credibility to Republican charges that Democrats are weak and spineless. If you can't stand up to John Boehner, how can you expect the public to show faith in your ability to stand up to Vladimir Putin?

Why Does Baseball Mogul Hate Me?

2008-09-23T21:38:00.002-05:00

Especially when I love it so much?

A few months ago I turned 24. One of my presents was Baseball Mogul 2009. I was given BM 2003 several years ago and loved it, so I was awfully excited about '09.

And for good reason. It's not a terribly realistic simulation of Major League Baseball. The rosters are absurdly flexible; you can shift players up and down from the minors to the majors without repercussions or limitations. Want to get that hotshot first baseman who's been tearing up Double-A on the postseason roster? Well, don't worry about fancy roster machinations. Just move him to the big club on October 1.

There's no 40-man roster. The game does include arbitration, which was lacking from the first version I was gifted years ago.

But realism isn't necessarily the point, though it does aim for a demographic that wants more than the "see ball/hit ball" dynamic of console games. (Which I also adore, for the record) There's a certain nerdy joy that comes from assembling a team and winning a virtual World Series with it. Granted, I haven't actually managed to pull that off yet, but hey, those back-to-back National League pennants were a lot of fun.

There's a tiny problem, however. Baseball Mogul players are crafted from candy glass. Every one in the league is like some unholy hybrid of JD Drew and the Samuel L. Jackson character from Unbreakable. Rarely is a game simulated without a box popping up on my screen to notify me that some crucial member of my carefully constructed roster has been crippled with a horrifying case of gingivitis.

Take the following injury log of the Atlanta Braves, accrued from April 1 through June 1 of the 2025 season:

April 12: Jim Karns out for two weeks. (Finger stress fracture)
April 21: Jose Fretga out for four weeks. (Wrist stress fracture)
May 2: Kurt Hafer out for three weeks. (Spiked Achilles Tendon)
May 7: Brian Widdess out for two months. (Broken ankle)
May 17: Jose Cisneros out for two weeks (Pulled groin)
May 21: Daniel Tyler out for two weeks. (Sprained finger)
May 22: Enrique Lucero out for two weeks (Sprained knee)
May 29: Jose Fretga out for two weeks. (Finger stress fracture)

All big league players, and that list doesn't include the litany of minor injuries that took players from the lineup for two or three days at a time.

So a suggestion for my good friends at Sports Mogul Inc.: you make a wonderful product. Really, a great way to kill time during my long days of waiting for my cell phone to ring or for my email inbox to receive exciting job offers. There's a definite old-school Civilization vibe, a "just one more turn" dynamic. Kudos for that.

But for the love of God, let me go two or three games without learning of a new injury. (And some of these injuries are bizarre. "Bruised kidneys" and "lacerated spleens" come up with frequency, which is slightly less troubling than the fact that those ailments only keep guys out for two or three games) You kill the fun when you eviscerate my roster.