It wasn't pretty, and it's not going to be enough to single-handedly salvage Florida's NCAA Tournament hopes. But the Gators pulled off an ugly victory over an arch-rival on Senior Day, and in doing so left themselves with at least a shred of credible tournament aspirations.
Walter Hodge, the winningest player in Florida history, played big in his final game at The O'Dome. Hodge scored 18 points on seven of 12 shooting, drained three three-pointers, recorded three steals and played a huge role in the full court press that bedeviled Kentucky throughout the game. These UF-UK matchups are interesting: Kentucky has the size to exploit Florida inside, but the Wildcats are a horrible ball-handling team, and the Gators have had a lot of success pressing and hectoring them over the last two or three years. Florida forced Kentucky into 23 turnovers, against only seven assists and 23 field goals.
The Gators held Kentucky to two of 11 from behind the arc and led wire-to-wire. UK never got closer than six points in the second half, despite out-rebounding the Gators by 10 and grabbing 11 offensive rebounds. Kentucky big man Patrick Patterson, who spurned the Gators two years ago, scored 16 points and recorded 13 rebounds. UK was actually reasonably competent in their halfcourt offense, but simply gave away too many possessions with silly passes and poor ball handling.
But Jodie Meeks, the other half of Kentucky's two-headed monster, shot six of 18 and just two of nine from three point land. The Wildcats have nothing behind Meeks and Patterson; they need both to play at their best to win games against legit teams.
Florida won without a Herculean effort from sophomore point guard Nick Calathes, who continues to struggle with fatigue and the flu. Calathes scored just five points on two of nine shooting and committed seven turnovers to go against the same number of assists. He did have three steals.
The win gives Florida a final regular season record of 22-9, 9-7 in the SEC. Both are fairly gaudy figures, but with the weakness in both UF's out of conference and conference schedules, it's not enough to win a spot in the NCAA Tournament. Fortunately, the Gators have a chance to pile up some victories in the SEC Tournament. They'll open against Arkansas, the conference's worst team. A rejuvenated Auburn team earned a first-round bye and awaits the winner of that game in the quarterfinals. If things go as they should, Tennessee will beat the winner of the opening round Ole Miss-Vanderbilt game and advance to the semis.
I think Florida needs three tournament wins. Two probably makes UF the last team out of the tournament; Arkansas is downright crummy, and Auburn, while improved from early in the year, doesn't provide the credibility UF needs.
Showing posts with label Gators. Show all posts
Showing posts with label Gators. Show all posts
Saturday, March 7, 2009
Sunday, February 15, 2009
The Decline and Fall of the Gator Empire?
Saturday was kind of a good news/bad news sort of day. We'll get to the good news later, but I've always been a believer in diluting the bad with the good and not the other way around. So we'll start with the bad news.
The bad news is that Florida traveled to Athens and lost to Georgia, 88-86. Losing to the Bulldogs in any sport is deeply unfortunate, but falling to a team that was previously winless in SEC play stings. UGA is now 10-15 on the season, so suffice it to say this is not what the bracketologists call a "quality loss."
I couldn't watch yesterday's game, so this isn't another game story. I know Nick Calathes had another outstanding performance, and I know Walter Hodge finally played up to his seniority. I also know that true freshman Erving Walker took the last shot of the game without so much as looking for either of those two players, and that's probably not a good thing.
No, I'm more concerned about the larger issue of Florida's basketball program. (The men's, that is. The women's team is having a hell of a season) UF might well manage to slip into the NCAA tournament; they have two eminently winnable games against Vanderbilt and Alabama, and two home contests against Kentucky and Tennessee. The Gators are on the bubble, but control their own destiny.
The bigger problem is that yesterday's game offers strong evidence that, once again, Florida just isn't very good. And that's troublesome, because it's the second straight year where that's the case.
I said before the season that missing the NCAA Tournament last year wasn't disastrous, but missing it two seasons in a row would be a serious blow to the program. It would be seen as evidence that the 04's and the back-to-back national championships were flukes. UF isn't doing anything to shake that impression.
It would be one thing if the Gators had simply fallen back to their pre-championship levels. Those Matt Walsh-Anthony Roberson-David Lee teams were frustrating in a lot of ways, and they never reached the Sweet 16. But they were solid clubs. They won a lot of SEC games, put up good conference tournament performances and won some challenging non-conference games. Instead, Billy Donovan's team has stumbled even further. The Gators are still competent, still competitive, can still beat a good team on a good day, but they're no real threat to accomplish anything. UF might sneak into the tournament as an eight or nine seed, but it's hard to see what that would really mean.
There are reasons for that, to be sure, but the reasons are starting to sound like rationalizations and excuses. A drop-off was inevitable after losing all five starters from the 2006-2007 championship team. There wasn't much experience behind them, and underclassmen were thrown into the fire last year. And when Marressee Speights left early and wing player Jonathan Mitchell transferred, it guaranteed the same would still be true in 2008-2009. (73 percent of Florida's minutes this year have been logged by underclassmen.)
But the youth argument wears thin when I watch Kansas. The Jayhawks lost every important player from their national championship squad and rely heavily on underclassmen. Junior point guard Sherron Collins played a huge role on the championship team, and he runs this squad, so KU does have more continuity than the Gators did. But beyond him, the Jayhawks' squad is young and inexperienced.
And Kansas is now 20-5, 9-1 in the Big 12. They entered the week ranked 16th in both major polls. UF's record is similarly gaudy (19-6), but the Gators are just 6-4 in the SEC. That's without mentioning that KU's schedule has been more difficult, both in and out of conference. Both teams played Washington and Syracuse in a mid-season tournament. But while the Gators' next-best out of conference opponent was NC State, Kansas went on to play Massachusetts, Arizona, Tennessee, Siena and Michigan State. And the Big 12 is better than the SEC.
What makes this particularly galling is that it's not the first time Bill Self and the Jayhawks have pulled off the trick. The 2005-2006 KU team lost the core of the Aaron Miles-Keith Langford-Wayne Simien team that advanced to the Elite Eight in 2003-2004 but fell to Bucknell in the first round of the 2004-2005 NCAA Tourament. In 2005-2006, KU struggled early, but eventually won a share of the regular season conference championship and won the Big 12 Tournament Championship.
They also went on to lose to Bradley in the first round of the tournament, which was infruriating at the time. But they also had tangible accomplishments and acquitted themselves well.
Why haven't the Gators been able to respond similarly? The problem is not so much youth as it is the talent of that youth. Donovan's 2007 class, the freshmen who had to carry the 07-08 team, had five members. Only one of those players, Nick Calathes, was in a position to make an immediate impact. Jai Lucas started every game, but only out of necessity. Chandler Parsons, Alex Tyus and Adam Allen are all talented players, but they were all developmental prospects, guys who needed to sit for a year and learn the game. None had the luxury.
Tyus has taken a nice leap in his sophomore year, but Parsons still too often looks lost. (Allen is taking a medical redshirt) The 2008 class is more college ready; Erving Walker's been a revalation as a true freshman, and Ray Shipman, Kenny Kadji and Allan Chaney have all made acceptable contributions.
But "acceptable contributions" aren't what the Gators need. Great teams are built in one of two ways: a talented core sticks around for two or three years and gels together into a team. Or the coach recruits a group of players so talented that they overcome their inexperience and make an instant impact.
Donovan hasn't done the latter. And the former strategy was short-circuited when Speights left last off-season. The Gators once again find themselves without an inside presence, relying on young or out-of-position players to man the interior. Tyus is too small to play center, and Dan Werner is out of position at the power forward spot.
But the "let the core gel" strategy was kneecapped years ago. Florida's senior class consists of Hodge. And...Hodge. His fellow signees didn't last long in Gainesville. David Huertas transferred after his freshman year, as did big man Jimmie Sutton. (Who redshirted in his first year) Derwin Kitchen didn't qualify academically.
Florida's junior class consists of Werner and...Werner. Brandon Powell transferred after his freshman year, and Jonathan Mitchell left after his sophomore season. Speights, as mentioned, declared for the draft.
In short, Donovan has signed two largely failed recruiting classes, leaving him to rely on underclassmen. Which, again, wouldn't be a problem if the 07 and 08 classes were filled with instant impact talent. But instead Donovan largely signed complementary players and developmental prospects in a conscious attempt to avoid some of the mistakes he made in the early part of the new century with highly regarded five stars who left early and didn't come at all. (Kwame Brown, for example)
Florida's immediate future falls on Calathes. If he bolts after this season, as some expect, Florida's basketball program will be on a treadmill, trying desperately to catch up with departed talent. The Gators should get some help inside with the addition of two well-regarded freshmen big men and improvement from Kadji and Chaney. But if Hodge and Calathes leave, Florida's guard position will fall to Walker, Shipman and incoming uber-prospect Kenny Boynton.
Boynton is exactly the kind of high-impact, early-impact player the Gators need. But that leads to another troubling question: if Boynton plays well for Florida in 2009-2010, will he be tempted to leave early for the NBA? And again, Donovan's back on the treadmill.
The bad news is that Florida traveled to Athens and lost to Georgia, 88-86. Losing to the Bulldogs in any sport is deeply unfortunate, but falling to a team that was previously winless in SEC play stings. UGA is now 10-15 on the season, so suffice it to say this is not what the bracketologists call a "quality loss."
I couldn't watch yesterday's game, so this isn't another game story. I know Nick Calathes had another outstanding performance, and I know Walter Hodge finally played up to his seniority. I also know that true freshman Erving Walker took the last shot of the game without so much as looking for either of those two players, and that's probably not a good thing.
No, I'm more concerned about the larger issue of Florida's basketball program. (The men's, that is. The women's team is having a hell of a season) UF might well manage to slip into the NCAA tournament; they have two eminently winnable games against Vanderbilt and Alabama, and two home contests against Kentucky and Tennessee. The Gators are on the bubble, but control their own destiny.
The bigger problem is that yesterday's game offers strong evidence that, once again, Florida just isn't very good. And that's troublesome, because it's the second straight year where that's the case.
I said before the season that missing the NCAA Tournament last year wasn't disastrous, but missing it two seasons in a row would be a serious blow to the program. It would be seen as evidence that the 04's and the back-to-back national championships were flukes. UF isn't doing anything to shake that impression.
It would be one thing if the Gators had simply fallen back to their pre-championship levels. Those Matt Walsh-Anthony Roberson-David Lee teams were frustrating in a lot of ways, and they never reached the Sweet 16. But they were solid clubs. They won a lot of SEC games, put up good conference tournament performances and won some challenging non-conference games. Instead, Billy Donovan's team has stumbled even further. The Gators are still competent, still competitive, can still beat a good team on a good day, but they're no real threat to accomplish anything. UF might sneak into the tournament as an eight or nine seed, but it's hard to see what that would really mean.
There are reasons for that, to be sure, but the reasons are starting to sound like rationalizations and excuses. A drop-off was inevitable after losing all five starters from the 2006-2007 championship team. There wasn't much experience behind them, and underclassmen were thrown into the fire last year. And when Marressee Speights left early and wing player Jonathan Mitchell transferred, it guaranteed the same would still be true in 2008-2009. (73 percent of Florida's minutes this year have been logged by underclassmen.)
But the youth argument wears thin when I watch Kansas. The Jayhawks lost every important player from their national championship squad and rely heavily on underclassmen. Junior point guard Sherron Collins played a huge role on the championship team, and he runs this squad, so KU does have more continuity than the Gators did. But beyond him, the Jayhawks' squad is young and inexperienced.
And Kansas is now 20-5, 9-1 in the Big 12. They entered the week ranked 16th in both major polls. UF's record is similarly gaudy (19-6), but the Gators are just 6-4 in the SEC. That's without mentioning that KU's schedule has been more difficult, both in and out of conference. Both teams played Washington and Syracuse in a mid-season tournament. But while the Gators' next-best out of conference opponent was NC State, Kansas went on to play Massachusetts, Arizona, Tennessee, Siena and Michigan State. And the Big 12 is better than the SEC.
What makes this particularly galling is that it's not the first time Bill Self and the Jayhawks have pulled off the trick. The 2005-2006 KU team lost the core of the Aaron Miles-Keith Langford-Wayne Simien team that advanced to the Elite Eight in 2003-2004 but fell to Bucknell in the first round of the 2004-2005 NCAA Tourament. In 2005-2006, KU struggled early, but eventually won a share of the regular season conference championship and won the Big 12 Tournament Championship.
They also went on to lose to Bradley in the first round of the tournament, which was infruriating at the time. But they also had tangible accomplishments and acquitted themselves well.
Why haven't the Gators been able to respond similarly? The problem is not so much youth as it is the talent of that youth. Donovan's 2007 class, the freshmen who had to carry the 07-08 team, had five members. Only one of those players, Nick Calathes, was in a position to make an immediate impact. Jai Lucas started every game, but only out of necessity. Chandler Parsons, Alex Tyus and Adam Allen are all talented players, but they were all developmental prospects, guys who needed to sit for a year and learn the game. None had the luxury.
Tyus has taken a nice leap in his sophomore year, but Parsons still too often looks lost. (Allen is taking a medical redshirt) The 2008 class is more college ready; Erving Walker's been a revalation as a true freshman, and Ray Shipman, Kenny Kadji and Allan Chaney have all made acceptable contributions.
But "acceptable contributions" aren't what the Gators need. Great teams are built in one of two ways: a talented core sticks around for two or three years and gels together into a team. Or the coach recruits a group of players so talented that they overcome their inexperience and make an instant impact.
Donovan hasn't done the latter. And the former strategy was short-circuited when Speights left last off-season. The Gators once again find themselves without an inside presence, relying on young or out-of-position players to man the interior. Tyus is too small to play center, and Dan Werner is out of position at the power forward spot.
But the "let the core gel" strategy was kneecapped years ago. Florida's senior class consists of Hodge. And...Hodge. His fellow signees didn't last long in Gainesville. David Huertas transferred after his freshman year, as did big man Jimmie Sutton. (Who redshirted in his first year) Derwin Kitchen didn't qualify academically.
Florida's junior class consists of Werner and...Werner. Brandon Powell transferred after his freshman year, and Jonathan Mitchell left after his sophomore season. Speights, as mentioned, declared for the draft.
In short, Donovan has signed two largely failed recruiting classes, leaving him to rely on underclassmen. Which, again, wouldn't be a problem if the 07 and 08 classes were filled with instant impact talent. But instead Donovan largely signed complementary players and developmental prospects in a conscious attempt to avoid some of the mistakes he made in the early part of the new century with highly regarded five stars who left early and didn't come at all. (Kwame Brown, for example)
Florida's immediate future falls on Calathes. If he bolts after this season, as some expect, Florida's basketball program will be on a treadmill, trying desperately to catch up with departed talent. The Gators should get some help inside with the addition of two well-regarded freshmen big men and improvement from Kadji and Chaney. But if Hodge and Calathes leave, Florida's guard position will fall to Walker, Shipman and incoming uber-prospect Kenny Boynton.
Boynton is exactly the kind of high-impact, early-impact player the Gators need. But that leads to another troubling question: if Boynton plays well for Florida in 2009-2010, will he be tempted to leave early for the NBA? And again, Donovan's back on the treadmill.
Tuesday, February 10, 2009
Kentucky 68, Florida 65
One of the blessings of sport is that is a result-driven affair. At the end of the game, all you need to do is look at the final score to know what happened. Conclusions are drawn off those numbers. People are judged off those numbers. And those conclusions, those judgments, can't be questioned. The score is all that matters.
And that is also the great cruelty of sport.
Nick Calathes played the game of life, slashing through Kentucky's defense and draining extraordinary shots against stifling defenders. He scored 33 points, a career high, grabbed seven rebounds and dished three assists. And he ended up standing on the free throw line in Kentucky's Rupp Arena, his team down by three with six tenths of a second left, trying to figure out how he was going to turn one free throw into three points.
He was there because Kentucky's Jodie Meeks (who is one game away from earning a profane middle name) hit an absurd three pointer over his out-stretched hand with six seconds left. Calathes stuck with Meeks, played laudable defense and forced his man, the best scorer in the SEC, to alter his form and heave up an off-balance three as the shot clock expired. And it swished through the net, giving Kentucky the lead.
Calathes streaked down the court and threw up his own desperation three; it fell short and wide, but only because UK's Kevin Galloway fouled him on the shot. Calathes was 11 of 12 from the charity stripe at that point and had made nine in a row. My statistically inclined friends are going to scold me for saying this, but the math didn't augur well. Nick needed to make all three shots, and doing so would have given up a streak of 12 straight converted free throws. I didn't like those odds.
For good reason. Calathes' first shot rimmed out. He missed his second. And so he was left with the enjoyable task of intentionally missing the shot with enough velocity so that it would bounce to the three-point line. There, one of his teammates would pick it up and drain the game-tying three. In six-tenths of a second.
The plan predictably failed; Calathes' line drive missed the rim and Kentucky got the ball back. UF fell to 19-5, 6-3 in the SEC.
Florida was in a position to be heartbroken by Jodie Meeks because at several points in the second half they blew leads and because they consistently allowed Kentucky to gather offensive rebounds and score on second chance shots. The Wildcats out-rebounded the Gators, 39-25, and 11 of those were on the offensive end.
The Gators forced 19 turnovers in the game and held Kentucky to just 30 points in the first half. Granted, Kentucky held Florida to just 30 points in the first half, so the Gators didn't take great advantage of their defensive performance.
Walter Hodge, UF's lone senior, was ejected early in the second half after a bizarre series of events that began with Chandler Parsons being fouled on a three point attempt. It ended with Hodge walking off the court, ejected after the officials huddled around a monitor and determined that Florida's shooting guard deliberately stepped on the arm of UK's Perry Stevenson. I've seen the replays a dozen times and I can't say for sure whether Hodge did that intentionally; I have to wonder at the wisdom of ejecting a player in a close conference game on such a questionable play.
Hodge's loss didn't affect the Gators all that much. They pulled out to a 45-39 lead with 12:32 left in the game, but fell behind 48-47 just two minutes later.
Florida was able to re-gain the lead shortly thereafter and pushed it to six on two separate occasions, but the game basically oscillated between various small Florida advantages. But the Gators gave the Wildcats an opening when Chandler Parsons missed two free throws with 2:40 left and Florida clinging to a three-point lead.
Exactly two minutes later, after Kentucky had gained a slim one-point lead, Dan Werner made a free throw to tie the game. But he missed his second shot, and Kentucky gained control of the ball with 40 seconds left and the game tied at 65. After an exchange of timeouts and some manuevering from Kentucky coach Billy Gillispie, Meeks hit the game-winning shot.
The Gators' next three games are the three easiest left on their schedule. Georgia and Alabama are both crummy and coach-less. Vanderbilt, at least, is just plain crummy. It's imperative UF sweep those three games; if they do, they'll go into the home stretch with a 9-3 conference record. At that point, all they really need to do to put themselves into the NCAA tournament is win one game against LSU, Mississippi State, Tennessee or Kentucky.
And that is also the great cruelty of sport.
Nick Calathes played the game of life, slashing through Kentucky's defense and draining extraordinary shots against stifling defenders. He scored 33 points, a career high, grabbed seven rebounds and dished three assists. And he ended up standing on the free throw line in Kentucky's Rupp Arena, his team down by three with six tenths of a second left, trying to figure out how he was going to turn one free throw into three points.
He was there because Kentucky's Jodie Meeks (who is one game away from earning a profane middle name) hit an absurd three pointer over his out-stretched hand with six seconds left. Calathes stuck with Meeks, played laudable defense and forced his man, the best scorer in the SEC, to alter his form and heave up an off-balance three as the shot clock expired. And it swished through the net, giving Kentucky the lead.
Calathes streaked down the court and threw up his own desperation three; it fell short and wide, but only because UK's Kevin Galloway fouled him on the shot. Calathes was 11 of 12 from the charity stripe at that point and had made nine in a row. My statistically inclined friends are going to scold me for saying this, but the math didn't augur well. Nick needed to make all three shots, and doing so would have given up a streak of 12 straight converted free throws. I didn't like those odds.
For good reason. Calathes' first shot rimmed out. He missed his second. And so he was left with the enjoyable task of intentionally missing the shot with enough velocity so that it would bounce to the three-point line. There, one of his teammates would pick it up and drain the game-tying three. In six-tenths of a second.
The plan predictably failed; Calathes' line drive missed the rim and Kentucky got the ball back. UF fell to 19-5, 6-3 in the SEC.
Florida was in a position to be heartbroken by Jodie Meeks because at several points in the second half they blew leads and because they consistently allowed Kentucky to gather offensive rebounds and score on second chance shots. The Wildcats out-rebounded the Gators, 39-25, and 11 of those were on the offensive end.
The Gators forced 19 turnovers in the game and held Kentucky to just 30 points in the first half. Granted, Kentucky held Florida to just 30 points in the first half, so the Gators didn't take great advantage of their defensive performance.
Walter Hodge, UF's lone senior, was ejected early in the second half after a bizarre series of events that began with Chandler Parsons being fouled on a three point attempt. It ended with Hodge walking off the court, ejected after the officials huddled around a monitor and determined that Florida's shooting guard deliberately stepped on the arm of UK's Perry Stevenson. I've seen the replays a dozen times and I can't say for sure whether Hodge did that intentionally; I have to wonder at the wisdom of ejecting a player in a close conference game on such a questionable play.
Hodge's loss didn't affect the Gators all that much. They pulled out to a 45-39 lead with 12:32 left in the game, but fell behind 48-47 just two minutes later.
Florida was able to re-gain the lead shortly thereafter and pushed it to six on two separate occasions, but the game basically oscillated between various small Florida advantages. But the Gators gave the Wildcats an opening when Chandler Parsons missed two free throws with 2:40 left and Florida clinging to a three-point lead.
Exactly two minutes later, after Kentucky had gained a slim one-point lead, Dan Werner made a free throw to tie the game. But he missed his second shot, and Kentucky gained control of the ball with 40 seconds left and the game tied at 65. After an exchange of timeouts and some manuevering from Kentucky coach Billy Gillispie, Meeks hit the game-winning shot.
The Gators' next three games are the three easiest left on their schedule. Georgia and Alabama are both crummy and coach-less. Vanderbilt, at least, is just plain crummy. It's imperative UF sweep those three games; if they do, they'll go into the home stretch with a 9-3 conference record. At that point, all they really need to do to put themselves into the NCAA tournament is win one game against LSU, Mississippi State, Tennessee or Kentucky.
Wednesday, February 4, 2009
Sign Along the Dotted Line, Please
A fairly crummy Signing Day caps off a mildly disappointing recruiting season that still resulted in Florida inking a number of excellent players.
That number, unfortunately, is only 16. Urban Meyer didn't have a lot of scholarships to offer this year; his defense returned all 22 players on the two-deep depth chart, and his offense lost just a handful of standouts. So this wasn't going to be a big class.
But Meyer was burned by a handful of ill-timed decommits from players who had verbally pledged themselves to Florida.
One of the problems with following college football recruiting is that you start to take it personally. I went to this school and I loved it. Why isn't Johnny FiveStar over there salivating at the prospect of playing for my beloved alma mater? Is there a deficit in his character? You know what- he's not even Gator material anyway!
This is especially hard to shake when "your" team is exceptionally successful and the player in question has previously committed to the school in question. The Gators, of course, are coming off a national championship and should start the 2009 season as the number one team in the country. They've got a proven, superstar head coach. They've got 24,000 of the hottest female students in the country. They're in the state of Florida. Really, what's not to love?
Quite a lot, evidently. Meyer found out that a national championship means a little less than he might have thought. After clinching a berth in the BCS game, Florida lost the following highly rated recruits:
At least Kasa and Reid decommitted several weeks ago. Richardson and Teague bolted today, and both to arch-rival Tennessee and new head coach Lane Kiffin. Teague stayed close to home, but Richardson's departure is baffling. Again, fans tend to myopia, but it's hard to see what Tennessee offers a Florida receiver that UF doesn't.
Those losses hurt, because they left the Gators with just one receiver in the class and no cornerbacks. The latter is particularly troublesome.
Meyer and Company also lost out on a number of players who announced their intentions today. Linebackers Frankie Telfort (a Florida boy) and Jarvis Jones (Georgia) both opted to cross the country and play for Pete Carroll and USC. Jones, in particular, was a big loss, as he was targeted to be Brandon Spikes' replacement.
And Meyer again missed out on his white wale running back. After months of drama Trent Richardson, ESPN's top running back, re-affirmed his commitment to Alabama and spurned UF's advances.
But for all the players Florida missed out on, Meyer still managed to bring in a relatively impressive haul of talent. The crown jewel is Andre Debose, an explosive wide receiver (#2 on ESPN's list) whose high school tapes just scream "Percy Harvin." Meyer had to scrap and claw to hold on to him after a last second visit to Florida State, but there's little doubt he'll make an immediate impact.
Florida's lone Signing Day triumph came when Maryland linebacker Jelani Jenkins (ESPN's number nine overall prospect) declared for the Gators. He'll join Jon Bostic (#108) in forming an excellent linebacker class that could have been extraordinary with the addition of Jones and/or Telfort.
The real strength of the class is on of the offensive line, where Meyer dedicated five of the 16 scholarships. That unit is headed by Xavier Nixon, one of the best tackles in the country, and Nick Alajajian, a guard whose name is going to torment Verne Lundquist for the next four to five years.
The complete list is here. Also worthy of mention is Mike Gillislee, rated the 14th best running back in the country by ESPN; he's a good fit for the spread and makes whiffing on Trent Richardson slightly less troublesome. Jordan Reed, another Connecticut export, is the only quarterback in the class.
That number, unfortunately, is only 16. Urban Meyer didn't have a lot of scholarships to offer this year; his defense returned all 22 players on the two-deep depth chart, and his offense lost just a handful of standouts. So this wasn't going to be a big class.
But Meyer was burned by a handful of ill-timed decommits from players who had verbally pledged themselves to Florida.
One of the problems with following college football recruiting is that you start to take it personally. I went to this school and I loved it. Why isn't Johnny FiveStar over there salivating at the prospect of playing for my beloved alma mater? Is there a deficit in his character? You know what- he's not even Gator material anyway!
This is especially hard to shake when "your" team is exceptionally successful and the player in question has previously committed to the school in question. The Gators, of course, are coming off a national championship and should start the 2009 season as the number one team in the country. They've got a proven, superstar head coach. They've got 24,000 of the hottest female students in the country. They're in the state of Florida. Really, what's not to love?
Quite a lot, evidently. Meyer found out that a national championship means a little less than he might have thought. After clinching a berth in the BCS game, Florida lost the following highly rated recruits:
- Nick Kasa, DE, Broomfield, Colorado
- Marsalis Teague, CB, Paris, Tennessee
- Nu'Keese Richardson, WR, Pahokee, Florida
- Greg Reid, CB, Valdosta, Georgia
At least Kasa and Reid decommitted several weeks ago. Richardson and Teague bolted today, and both to arch-rival Tennessee and new head coach Lane Kiffin. Teague stayed close to home, but Richardson's departure is baffling. Again, fans tend to myopia, but it's hard to see what Tennessee offers a Florida receiver that UF doesn't.
Those losses hurt, because they left the Gators with just one receiver in the class and no cornerbacks. The latter is particularly troublesome.
Meyer and Company also lost out on a number of players who announced their intentions today. Linebackers Frankie Telfort (a Florida boy) and Jarvis Jones (Georgia) both opted to cross the country and play for Pete Carroll and USC. Jones, in particular, was a big loss, as he was targeted to be Brandon Spikes' replacement.
And Meyer again missed out on his white wale running back. After months of drama Trent Richardson, ESPN's top running back, re-affirmed his commitment to Alabama and spurned UF's advances.
But for all the players Florida missed out on, Meyer still managed to bring in a relatively impressive haul of talent. The crown jewel is Andre Debose, an explosive wide receiver (#2 on ESPN's list) whose high school tapes just scream "Percy Harvin." Meyer had to scrap and claw to hold on to him after a last second visit to Florida State, but there's little doubt he'll make an immediate impact.
Florida's lone Signing Day triumph came when Maryland linebacker Jelani Jenkins (ESPN's number nine overall prospect) declared for the Gators. He'll join Jon Bostic (#108) in forming an excellent linebacker class that could have been extraordinary with the addition of Jones and/or Telfort.
The real strength of the class is on of the offensive line, where Meyer dedicated five of the 16 scholarships. That unit is headed by Xavier Nixon, one of the best tackles in the country, and Nick Alajajian, a guard whose name is going to torment Verne Lundquist for the next four to five years.
The complete list is here. Also worthy of mention is Mike Gillislee, rated the 14th best running back in the country by ESPN; he's a good fit for the spread and makes whiffing on Trent Richardson slightly less troublesome. Jordan Reed, another Connecticut export, is the only quarterback in the class.
Tuesday, February 3, 2009
Florida 97, South Carolina 93
Devan Downey devastates defenders with deafening dramatic displays.
Yes, Florida won this game and moved to 6-2 in the SEC, but it was South Carolina's Death Dwarf who stole the stole. The diminutive Downey scored 33 points on 13 of 24 shooting, drained seven of nine three-pointers and nearly hauled the Gamecocks to a dramatic, come-from-behind victory.
Fortunately, the key word there is "nearly." The Gators held on by the skin of their teeth and drained clutch free throws in the face of Downey's insane string of acrobatic threes.
UF had an 91-82 lead with 57 seconds left after Erving Walker nailed two free throws. Downey hit a three with 48 seconds left. 10 seconds later, senior Walter Hodge gave Downey and USC(E) the slim opening they needed when he missed two free throws. Downey drove the length of the court, blew past Walker and hit an easy lay-up, making the score 91-87.
Hodge, to his everlasting credit, hit two free throws with 31 seconds left, pushing the score to 93-87. Not daunted, Downey four seconds later hit another three-pointer, pulling South Carolina to within three. Nick Calathes, who hit 13 of 16 at the charity stripe after botching several attempts when the Gators played at South Carolina, sunk two shots, giving the Gators a 95-90 lead.
Yawning, Downey drained another three, making the score 95-93. The Gamecocks fouled Walter Hodge with 13 seconds left, and if he missed one shot, Downey was going to have a chance to tie the game with a three. If Hodge missed both, Downey was going to have a chance to win the game with a three. And to be honest, I say "a chance" despite knowing that Downey definitely would have made that shot.
Hodge came through and buried both shots, and even Devan Downey couldn't find a way to hit a four-pointer. He barely missed a desperation three at the other end, and Florida was able to corral the rebound and the victory.
Really a hell of a game all around. ESPN's announcing crew predicted 95-92 halfway through the first half, and they were pretty much on the money. Florida's inability to stop South Carolina was annoying, but those 92 points were far more the result of outstanding execution and unreal shooting than anything the Gators did poorly. The Gamecocks hit 50 percent of their 22 three-point attempt.
Walker deserves to be singled out for some praise. He played 29 minutes, more than anyone but Calathes and Chandler Parsons, scored 18 points on four of eight shooting and hit seven of eight free throws. Billy Donovan asked a lot of him, and the freshman handled his burdens with aplomb. Walker took the ball past halfcourt against SC's full court press, and he was expected to both guard Downey and be guarded by him. The latter task was no small thing; Downey's a steal machine, and Walker turned it over just once. (Against four assists.)
Parsons continued his good work with 14 points, 10 rebounds and three blocks. In fact, all five Florida starters (plus Walker) scored in double figures.
This was a big one for Florida. As I wrote above, it moves the Gators to 6-2 in the conference (19-4 overall) and gives them first place in the SEC East. Far more important is that it clears the road for nine SEC wins: UF need only best Georgia on the road and Vanderbilt and Alabama at home to clinch those nine wins and a better than .500 conference record.
Now, 9-7 in the SEC isn't going to get it done with the selection committee this year, considering how crummy the conference is. But if Florida wins those three games, it just needs to win one of the toss-up games (at LSU, at Mississippi State, either Kentucky game and home against Tennessee) to pull a 10-6 record. And no SEC team has ever gone 10-6 in the conference and missed the NCAA tournament.
Yes, Florida won this game and moved to 6-2 in the SEC, but it was South Carolina's Death Dwarf who stole the stole. The diminutive Downey scored 33 points on 13 of 24 shooting, drained seven of nine three-pointers and nearly hauled the Gamecocks to a dramatic, come-from-behind victory.
Fortunately, the key word there is "nearly." The Gators held on by the skin of their teeth and drained clutch free throws in the face of Downey's insane string of acrobatic threes.
UF had an 91-82 lead with 57 seconds left after Erving Walker nailed two free throws. Downey hit a three with 48 seconds left. 10 seconds later, senior Walter Hodge gave Downey and USC(E) the slim opening they needed when he missed two free throws. Downey drove the length of the court, blew past Walker and hit an easy lay-up, making the score 91-87.
Hodge, to his everlasting credit, hit two free throws with 31 seconds left, pushing the score to 93-87. Not daunted, Downey four seconds later hit another three-pointer, pulling South Carolina to within three. Nick Calathes, who hit 13 of 16 at the charity stripe after botching several attempts when the Gators played at South Carolina, sunk two shots, giving the Gators a 95-90 lead.
Yawning, Downey drained another three, making the score 95-93. The Gamecocks fouled Walter Hodge with 13 seconds left, and if he missed one shot, Downey was going to have a chance to tie the game with a three. If Hodge missed both, Downey was going to have a chance to win the game with a three. And to be honest, I say "a chance" despite knowing that Downey definitely would have made that shot.
Hodge came through and buried both shots, and even Devan Downey couldn't find a way to hit a four-pointer. He barely missed a desperation three at the other end, and Florida was able to corral the rebound and the victory.
Really a hell of a game all around. ESPN's announcing crew predicted 95-92 halfway through the first half, and they were pretty much on the money. Florida's inability to stop South Carolina was annoying, but those 92 points were far more the result of outstanding execution and unreal shooting than anything the Gators did poorly. The Gamecocks hit 50 percent of their 22 three-point attempt.
Walker deserves to be singled out for some praise. He played 29 minutes, more than anyone but Calathes and Chandler Parsons, scored 18 points on four of eight shooting and hit seven of eight free throws. Billy Donovan asked a lot of him, and the freshman handled his burdens with aplomb. Walker took the ball past halfcourt against SC's full court press, and he was expected to both guard Downey and be guarded by him. The latter task was no small thing; Downey's a steal machine, and Walker turned it over just once. (Against four assists.)
Parsons continued his good work with 14 points, 10 rebounds and three blocks. In fact, all five Florida starters (plus Walker) scored in double figures.
This was a big one for Florida. As I wrote above, it moves the Gators to 6-2 in the conference (19-4 overall) and gives them first place in the SEC East. Far more important is that it clears the road for nine SEC wins: UF need only best Georgia on the road and Vanderbilt and Alabama at home to clinch those nine wins and a better than .500 conference record.
Now, 9-7 in the SEC isn't going to get it done with the selection committee this year, considering how crummy the conference is. But if Florida wins those three games, it just needs to win one of the toss-up games (at LSU, at Mississippi State, either Kentucky game and home against Tennessee) to pull a 10-6 record. And no SEC team has ever gone 10-6 in the conference and missed the NCAA tournament.
Saturday, January 31, 2009
Tennessee 79, Florida 63
I love Billy Donovan, as all Gators are legally required to do. But at this point, one thing seems undeniably: Bruce Pearl flat owns him.
Pearl's Volunteers took apart the Gators, and Pearl moved to 6-1 against Donovan, in the process righting the ship and ending an ugly skid that had left Tennessee in a dire situation vis a vis the NCAA tournament. The Gators once again leave Knoxville with a bloody nose and lingering questions about their talent and toughness.
Let me preface the rest of this post with a confession: I'm really not much of a basketball strategist. I follow the games the best I can, and I think I'm reasonably smart about it, but I couldn't diagram a play if you spotted me nine players and all the squiggly lines. So it's eminently possible that I have no clue what I'm talking about.
But I believe the idea of a zone defense is to neutralize the other team's advantage in size and post play. You force them into taking long range shots which are, by their nature, low percentage. This is especially effective when the other guys can't shoot three pointers. So I understand the rationale behind using the zone defense against Tennessee: the Vols have significantly better post players than the Gators, and UT came into tonight's game with a statistical record that said they were bad from behind the arc.
See, just this shows you how stupid Tennessee students are: they're so ignorant they don't even know they can't shoot three-pointers.
UT hit 12 of 28 from beyond the arc and nailed several early shots from beyond the arc. Again, I'm not much of a strategist, but I think they shot so well because the Gators never bothered to actually defend the various Tennessee shooters. My understanding is that while the zone is supposed to entice your opponent to shoot three-pointers, you're still supposed to contest those shots.
The Gators sort of forgot about that last part, especially in the first half when Tennessee out-scored Florida 39-22. The Vols pretty much ran the Gators off the court in that first half, and it would be easy to blame Nick Calathes' foul issues for that. He was whistled for his second foul less than three minutes into the game on an iffy charging call. It's never easy losing your best player for 10 minutes, as the Gators did.
But Florida actually played with admirable tenacity with its point guard out. The Gators were within seven when Calathes entered the game, but instead of making a run, they withered under a barrage of three pointers.
There's something to be said for Florida's tenacity in the second half, I suppose. The Gators out-scored Tennessee in the second half, and they made a legitimate run after falling behind by by 22 at a couple points. But I don't want to make to much of that; Florida never pulled within single digits, and every time they looked like they were making a run the Gators let Scotty Hopson (20 points, four of six from three) or Tyler Smith stick a dagger in their hearts.
In the "rose growing in crap" category, Chandler Parsons continued his good work, scoring 15 points on six of 10 shooting and grabbing nine rebounds. Dude still can't make his free throws.
Still, hardly a disastrous loss in the bigger picture. Florida's 5-2 in the conference and still in prime position for a tournament berth. The schedule gets plenty tough from this point, however. The surprisingly stiff 'Cocks of South Carolina come to Gainesvile Tuesday. The Gators still have road games at Kentucky, LSU and Mississippi State and home games against UK and UT.
Pearl's Volunteers took apart the Gators, and Pearl moved to 6-1 against Donovan, in the process righting the ship and ending an ugly skid that had left Tennessee in a dire situation vis a vis the NCAA tournament. The Gators once again leave Knoxville with a bloody nose and lingering questions about their talent and toughness.
Let me preface the rest of this post with a confession: I'm really not much of a basketball strategist. I follow the games the best I can, and I think I'm reasonably smart about it, but I couldn't diagram a play if you spotted me nine players and all the squiggly lines. So it's eminently possible that I have no clue what I'm talking about.
But I believe the idea of a zone defense is to neutralize the other team's advantage in size and post play. You force them into taking long range shots which are, by their nature, low percentage. This is especially effective when the other guys can't shoot three pointers. So I understand the rationale behind using the zone defense against Tennessee: the Vols have significantly better post players than the Gators, and UT came into tonight's game with a statistical record that said they were bad from behind the arc.
See, just this shows you how stupid Tennessee students are: they're so ignorant they don't even know they can't shoot three-pointers.
UT hit 12 of 28 from beyond the arc and nailed several early shots from beyond the arc. Again, I'm not much of a strategist, but I think they shot so well because the Gators never bothered to actually defend the various Tennessee shooters. My understanding is that while the zone is supposed to entice your opponent to shoot three-pointers, you're still supposed to contest those shots.
The Gators sort of forgot about that last part, especially in the first half when Tennessee out-scored Florida 39-22. The Vols pretty much ran the Gators off the court in that first half, and it would be easy to blame Nick Calathes' foul issues for that. He was whistled for his second foul less than three minutes into the game on an iffy charging call. It's never easy losing your best player for 10 minutes, as the Gators did.
But Florida actually played with admirable tenacity with its point guard out. The Gators were within seven when Calathes entered the game, but instead of making a run, they withered under a barrage of three pointers.
There's something to be said for Florida's tenacity in the second half, I suppose. The Gators out-scored Tennessee in the second half, and they made a legitimate run after falling behind by by 22 at a couple points. But I don't want to make to much of that; Florida never pulled within single digits, and every time they looked like they were making a run the Gators let Scotty Hopson (20 points, four of six from three) or Tyler Smith stick a dagger in their hearts.
In the "rose growing in crap" category, Chandler Parsons continued his good work, scoring 15 points on six of 10 shooting and grabbing nine rebounds. Dude still can't make his free throws.
Still, hardly a disastrous loss in the bigger picture. Florida's 5-2 in the conference and still in prime position for a tournament berth. The schedule gets plenty tough from this point, however. The surprisingly stiff 'Cocks of South Carolina come to Gainesvile Tuesday. The Gators still have road games at Kentucky, LSU and Mississippi State and home games against UK and UT.
Sunday, January 25, 2009
Florida 94, Vanderbilt 69
So that's why Chandler Parsons has a scholarship.
Florida's tall, gangly white guy had the game of his life, scoring 27 points on 10 of 11 shooting, including seven of eight from behind the arc. Parsons' teammates joined him in the hot shooting, hitting 15 of 25 three pointers and shooting 57.4 percent overall.
The Gators played their best game of the season against a Vanderbilt team sadly inferior to the last two teams Kevin Stallings has piloted into the NCAA tournament. It's dangerous to draw too many conclusions from what happened today. UF is now 4-1 in the SEC, but the Commodores are pretty crummy, and besides, Florida started last year's SEC campaign 5-1 (including a blowout win over Vanderbilt) before losing eight of their last 11 games and missing the NCAA tournament. The Gators have a home game against the fairly execrable Georgia Bulldogs coming up, so a second straight 5-1 start is in the cards. Hopefully this year's team will handle success a bit better.
But that's future talk, and right now it's enough to recognize how impressive a game that was. Coming as it did after last week's disaster at South Carolina, this performance was a huge pick-me-up for a team in desperate need of one.
Parsons was the star, but everyone got into the act for Florida. Freshman mighty mouse Erving Walker scored 17, Nick Calathes scored 15 (though he didn't have a good game distributing the ball), the heretofore invisible Walter Hodge had 10, and even freshman Kenny Kadji chipped in eight points in just12 minutes of play. Kadji also added two rebounds and a blocked shot; he's UF's best chance to find an interior presence this season.
There's not much of a game narrative to recap. Vanderbilt jumped out to an early six-point lead, Florida went on a run and never let up. They went into the half leading by 19, thanks to some nifty offensive rebounding and a miracle three pointer by Calathes. Vandy never came close to making a run in the second half, and the Gators spent most of that time ping ponging between a 20 and a 30-point lead. They retreated into the bunker in the final three minutes and missed on a chance to score 100, which is mildly disappointing.
Florida's tall, gangly white guy had the game of his life, scoring 27 points on 10 of 11 shooting, including seven of eight from behind the arc. Parsons' teammates joined him in the hot shooting, hitting 15 of 25 three pointers and shooting 57.4 percent overall.
The Gators played their best game of the season against a Vanderbilt team sadly inferior to the last two teams Kevin Stallings has piloted into the NCAA tournament. It's dangerous to draw too many conclusions from what happened today. UF is now 4-1 in the SEC, but the Commodores are pretty crummy, and besides, Florida started last year's SEC campaign 5-1 (including a blowout win over Vanderbilt) before losing eight of their last 11 games and missing the NCAA tournament. The Gators have a home game against the fairly execrable Georgia Bulldogs coming up, so a second straight 5-1 start is in the cards. Hopefully this year's team will handle success a bit better.
But that's future talk, and right now it's enough to recognize how impressive a game that was. Coming as it did after last week's disaster at South Carolina, this performance was a huge pick-me-up for a team in desperate need of one.
Parsons was the star, but everyone got into the act for Florida. Freshman mighty mouse Erving Walker scored 17, Nick Calathes scored 15 (though he didn't have a good game distributing the ball), the heretofore invisible Walter Hodge had 10, and even freshman Kenny Kadji chipped in eight points in just12 minutes of play. Kadji also added two rebounds and a blocked shot; he's UF's best chance to find an interior presence this season.
There's not much of a game narrative to recap. Vanderbilt jumped out to an early six-point lead, Florida went on a run and never let up. They went into the half leading by 19, thanks to some nifty offensive rebounding and a miracle three pointer by Calathes. Vandy never came close to making a run in the second half, and the Gators spent most of that time ping ponging between a 20 and a 30-point lead. They retreated into the bunker in the final three minutes and missed on a chance to score 100, which is mildly disappointing.
Thursday, January 15, 2009
Two Out of Three Works For Me
Percy Harvin leaves, Brandon Spikes stays.
Nothing too shocking here. Harvin was always assumed to be a three-year player, and while there were some rumblings about him sticking around, this announcement is far from earth-shattering. Spikes' decision is a little surprising, insofar as he was projected to be a first round choice and his family needs the money, but the key word there is "little." One more year of top-end production on a championship team will only help Spikes' draft stock.
I'll talk in a bit about the team Spikes is returning to, but it's important to a sing a paean to Percy.
Any discussion of the most explosive/dangerous/electrifying/dreamy players in Florida history has to start with Harvin. He's freakishly fast, to be sure, but what defines his greatness is his acceleration. Harvin has an extraordinary ability to go from standing still to full speed in the blink of an eye.
If that was all one could say for Harvin, it would be enough. But he has killed himself for the glory of Urban Meyer and the University of Florida. In last week's championship game he played through a fractured ankle. And to do that he had to forego his Christmas break, stay in Gainesville and rehab for more than 10 hours a day. It was just the most dramatic episode illustrating Harvin's willingness to play through pain for the Gators.
As admirable as that is, the fact that he had to play through so many injuries will be used against him in the run-up to the draft. He missed multiple games in all three seasons, and there's fair reason to wonder how the NFL will treat his finicky ankles. His role as a WR/RB hybrid at Florida means there isn't a lot of film of him doing receivery things. He doesn't have the size NFL execs look for in their receivers, and no one's going to make a guy with his injury history a full-time running back.
I suspect, however, that some team in the middle of the first round is going to overlook all that. There aren't a lot of players like Harvin lying around, and NFL teams are always desperate for big-play ability. Percy's got that in abundance.
Harvin made the right decision to go pro. He deserves to get paid. And while his departure presents some challenges for newly minted offensive coordinator Steve Addazio, he's leaving the team in great position for another championship run.
The offense is facing some challenges. Both tackles are graduating, and that's not a position where the Gators have great depth. UF's two best receivers are leaving, and it's not like Florida had a particularly dynamc passing attack this season.
But they'll weather that. Tim Tebow's returning, as are Chris Rainey, Jeff Demps and Emmanuel Moody, as well as a bevvy of talented receivers who haven't yet broken out. Meyer has also received a verbal commitment from Andre Debose, a receiver whose size, speed and high school film make him look an acceptable Harvin replacement.
And if the offense falls off a bit, the defense will make up for it. All 11 starters are returning from the championship team's stalwart unit, as is the rest of the two-deep. If one of the defensive tackles can step up and become a force (I'm looking at you, Torrey Davis), the 2009 defense has a chance to be the best in Florida history.
A quick programming note: the last several weeks notwithstanding, this has not become a sports blog. I realize my last non-sports post came on Christmas Eve. Rest assured, I fully intend to return to the subjects that reveal me to be out of my depth. But for now, I leave you with the following video of my favorite Percy Harvin play:
Nothing too shocking here. Harvin was always assumed to be a three-year player, and while there were some rumblings about him sticking around, this announcement is far from earth-shattering. Spikes' decision is a little surprising, insofar as he was projected to be a first round choice and his family needs the money, but the key word there is "little." One more year of top-end production on a championship team will only help Spikes' draft stock.
I'll talk in a bit about the team Spikes is returning to, but it's important to a sing a paean to Percy.
Any discussion of the most explosive/dangerous/electrifying/dreamy players in Florida history has to start with Harvin. He's freakishly fast, to be sure, but what defines his greatness is his acceleration. Harvin has an extraordinary ability to go from standing still to full speed in the blink of an eye.
If that was all one could say for Harvin, it would be enough. But he has killed himself for the glory of Urban Meyer and the University of Florida. In last week's championship game he played through a fractured ankle. And to do that he had to forego his Christmas break, stay in Gainesville and rehab for more than 10 hours a day. It was just the most dramatic episode illustrating Harvin's willingness to play through pain for the Gators.
As admirable as that is, the fact that he had to play through so many injuries will be used against him in the run-up to the draft. He missed multiple games in all three seasons, and there's fair reason to wonder how the NFL will treat his finicky ankles. His role as a WR/RB hybrid at Florida means there isn't a lot of film of him doing receivery things. He doesn't have the size NFL execs look for in their receivers, and no one's going to make a guy with his injury history a full-time running back.
I suspect, however, that some team in the middle of the first round is going to overlook all that. There aren't a lot of players like Harvin lying around, and NFL teams are always desperate for big-play ability. Percy's got that in abundance.
Harvin made the right decision to go pro. He deserves to get paid. And while his departure presents some challenges for newly minted offensive coordinator Steve Addazio, he's leaving the team in great position for another championship run.
The offense is facing some challenges. Both tackles are graduating, and that's not a position where the Gators have great depth. UF's two best receivers are leaving, and it's not like Florida had a particularly dynamc passing attack this season.
But they'll weather that. Tim Tebow's returning, as are Chris Rainey, Jeff Demps and Emmanuel Moody, as well as a bevvy of talented receivers who haven't yet broken out. Meyer has also received a verbal commitment from Andre Debose, a receiver whose size, speed and high school film make him look an acceptable Harvin replacement.
And if the offense falls off a bit, the defense will make up for it. All 11 starters are returning from the championship team's stalwart unit, as is the rest of the two-deep. If one of the defensive tackles can step up and become a force (I'm looking at you, Torrey Davis), the 2009 defense has a chance to be the best in Florida history.
A quick programming note: the last several weeks notwithstanding, this has not become a sports blog. I realize my last non-sports post came on Christmas Eve. Rest assured, I fully intend to return to the subjects that reveal me to be out of my depth. But for now, I leave you with the following video of my favorite Percy Harvin play:
Thursday, January 8, 2009
Florida 24, Oklahoma 14
Never have I been so happy to be so wrong about so much.
I predicted a shootout between two high-octane offenses, a back-and-forth affair where the only team that could make a stop would pull out the win. I thought UF would eviscerate Oklahoma's defense. I thought the Gators would stifle Oklahoma's running game and force the Sooners into a one-dimensional attack.
The defenses largely prevailed. The Sooners had success running the ball. Florida's offense was stuck in neutral much of the game. And none of it matters, because Percy Harvin, Tim Tebow and a few key players on Florida's defense dragged the Gators to their third national championship.
Some of the stats are pretty: the Gators gained 480 yards, 249 rushing. But Oklahoma successfuly stifled Florida's offense for most of the day. The defensive line frequently overwhelmed Florida's protection schemes, and at times it seemed a repeat of the early stages of the Miami game.
But the UF defense, facing one of the greatest offenses in the history of college football, came up with three plays that will live in Gator lore:
1. After Tebow threw his second interception of the game midway through the second quarter with the score tied 7-7, Oklahoma turned to running back Chris Brown. He broke a 17-yard run to the Florida nine-yard line. A five-yard rush on first and goal took Oklahoma to the UF four-yard line. Brown rushed for three yards on second down. On third and goal Brown was stopped for no gain. Oklahoma eschewed the field goal and tried once more on fourth down to plow Brown into the endzone. But Torrey Davis, who's been a pain in Urban Meyer's side since coming to Gainesville in 2007, burst through the offensive line and tackled Brown for a loss of two yards.
2. Oklahoma took over at its own 20-yard line with 2:32 to go. The Sooners drove down the field with relative ease, Heisman Trophy winner Sam Bradford and his receivers picking apart UF's defense. With 10 seconds to go in the half, Oklahoma faced first and goal from the Florida six. Bradford tried to fire a pass into tight coverage. Joe Haden made a fantastic play, diving in front of the receiver and tipping the ball into the air. After Ahmad Black, Lawrence Marsh, Major Wright, Lito Shepherd, Jevon Kearse and Erin Andrews batted the ball around for a few minutes, Wright finally snagged the interception. The Gators would go into halftime tied at seven.
3. Florida led, 17-14, with 10:45 to go. Bradford completed a long pass to Brown, who followed it with a short rush to the 50-yard line. On second down, Bradford found Iglesias streaking down the middle of the field. Bradford's pass led Iglesias just a little too much; Iglesias briefly held the ball with his fingertips. But Ahmad Black came flying in, stole the ball and held onto it as he fell to the ground.
Black laid the groundwork, and then Tebow took over. On third and 12 from his own 35, Tebow rolled out and hit Riley Cooper across the middle for a 17-yard gain. Two plays later, Tebow fired an absolute bullet to David Nelson for 29 yards. It was an extraordinary pass, an NFL throw that he lasered just over the outstretched arm of a linebacker and just in front of a defensive back speeding toward Nelson.
From that point on Tebow and his offense simply bulldozed the Sooners. The Gators converted a third and six on a shovel pass to Aaron Hernandez, who's become well-nigh unstoppable on that play. He would cap off the drive, naturally, with his patented jump pass to Nelson.
Tebow finished 18 of 30 for 231 yards and two touchdowns, though he did double his season interception total with two picks. He was also Florida's second-leading rusher, picking up 109 yards on 22 carries.
Florida's leading rusher was, of course, Percy Harvin, who deserves a laurel wreath for his performance tonight. He played without the extraordinary burst and acceleration that normally defines him, but he retained enough raw speed and athletic ability to burst through the Sooners' defense for a 52-yard gain in the fourth quarter. It set up what turned out to be the game-winning field goal.
It's early to be talking about this, but Urban Meyer is staring a dynasty in the face. Florida will almost certainly lose Harvin and linebacker Brandon Spikes to the draft, but if Tebow elects to stick around for his senior year, Florida will be a unanimous pre-season number one in 2009. Even if Tebow leaves, Meyer will retain a core of talented, experienced players. The offense will lose both tackles to graduation, as well as wide receiver Louis Murphy, but the defense is bereft of seniors. As long as Meyer keeps plugging in top 1o recruiting classes, he'll have the kind of players needed to consistently compete for championships.
I predicted a shootout between two high-octane offenses, a back-and-forth affair where the only team that could make a stop would pull out the win. I thought UF would eviscerate Oklahoma's defense. I thought the Gators would stifle Oklahoma's running game and force the Sooners into a one-dimensional attack.
The defenses largely prevailed. The Sooners had success running the ball. Florida's offense was stuck in neutral much of the game. And none of it matters, because Percy Harvin, Tim Tebow and a few key players on Florida's defense dragged the Gators to their third national championship.
Some of the stats are pretty: the Gators gained 480 yards, 249 rushing. But Oklahoma successfuly stifled Florida's offense for most of the day. The defensive line frequently overwhelmed Florida's protection schemes, and at times it seemed a repeat of the early stages of the Miami game.
But the UF defense, facing one of the greatest offenses in the history of college football, came up with three plays that will live in Gator lore:
1. After Tebow threw his second interception of the game midway through the second quarter with the score tied 7-7, Oklahoma turned to running back Chris Brown. He broke a 17-yard run to the Florida nine-yard line. A five-yard rush on first and goal took Oklahoma to the UF four-yard line. Brown rushed for three yards on second down. On third and goal Brown was stopped for no gain. Oklahoma eschewed the field goal and tried once more on fourth down to plow Brown into the endzone. But Torrey Davis, who's been a pain in Urban Meyer's side since coming to Gainesville in 2007, burst through the offensive line and tackled Brown for a loss of two yards.
2. Oklahoma took over at its own 20-yard line with 2:32 to go. The Sooners drove down the field with relative ease, Heisman Trophy winner Sam Bradford and his receivers picking apart UF's defense. With 10 seconds to go in the half, Oklahoma faced first and goal from the Florida six. Bradford tried to fire a pass into tight coverage. Joe Haden made a fantastic play, diving in front of the receiver and tipping the ball into the air. After Ahmad Black, Lawrence Marsh, Major Wright, Lito Shepherd, Jevon Kearse and Erin Andrews batted the ball around for a few minutes, Wright finally snagged the interception. The Gators would go into halftime tied at seven.
3. Florida led, 17-14, with 10:45 to go. Bradford completed a long pass to Brown, who followed it with a short rush to the 50-yard line. On second down, Bradford found Iglesias streaking down the middle of the field. Bradford's pass led Iglesias just a little too much; Iglesias briefly held the ball with his fingertips. But Ahmad Black came flying in, stole the ball and held onto it as he fell to the ground.
Black laid the groundwork, and then Tebow took over. On third and 12 from his own 35, Tebow rolled out and hit Riley Cooper across the middle for a 17-yard gain. Two plays later, Tebow fired an absolute bullet to David Nelson for 29 yards. It was an extraordinary pass, an NFL throw that he lasered just over the outstretched arm of a linebacker and just in front of a defensive back speeding toward Nelson.
From that point on Tebow and his offense simply bulldozed the Sooners. The Gators converted a third and six on a shovel pass to Aaron Hernandez, who's become well-nigh unstoppable on that play. He would cap off the drive, naturally, with his patented jump pass to Nelson.
Tebow finished 18 of 30 for 231 yards and two touchdowns, though he did double his season interception total with two picks. He was also Florida's second-leading rusher, picking up 109 yards on 22 carries.
Florida's leading rusher was, of course, Percy Harvin, who deserves a laurel wreath for his performance tonight. He played without the extraordinary burst and acceleration that normally defines him, but he retained enough raw speed and athletic ability to burst through the Sooners' defense for a 52-yard gain in the fourth quarter. It set up what turned out to be the game-winning field goal.
It's early to be talking about this, but Urban Meyer is staring a dynasty in the face. Florida will almost certainly lose Harvin and linebacker Brandon Spikes to the draft, but if Tebow elects to stick around for his senior year, Florida will be a unanimous pre-season number one in 2009. Even if Tebow leaves, Meyer will retain a core of talented, experienced players. The offense will lose both tackles to graduation, as well as wide receiver Louis Murphy, but the defense is bereft of seniors. As long as Meyer keeps plugging in top 1o recruiting classes, he'll have the kind of players needed to consistently compete for championships.
Championship Preview, Part 3: Prediction
Short and sweet:
Florida 42, Oklahoma 38.
UF's offense runs up and down the field on Oklahoma's defense, avoiding turnovers and ripping big gains with Percy Harvin, Jeff Demps, Chris Rainey and Tim Tebow. Florida's defense largely shuts down OU's running game, leaving Oklahoma one-dimensional. It's a great dimension, and Sam Bradford will have a lot of success throwing against Florida's young secondary. But ultimately, the Gators will make just enough stops, the special teams unit will make two or three big plays and Florida will pull out a game for the ages.
Florida 42, Oklahoma 38.
UF's offense runs up and down the field on Oklahoma's defense, avoiding turnovers and ripping big gains with Percy Harvin, Jeff Demps, Chris Rainey and Tim Tebow. Florida's defense largely shuts down OU's running game, leaving Oklahoma one-dimensional. It's a great dimension, and Sam Bradford will have a lot of success throwing against Florida's young secondary. But ultimately, the Gators will make just enough stops, the special teams unit will make two or three big plays and Florida will pull out a game for the ages.
Tuesday, January 6, 2009
Championship Preview, Part 2: When Florida Has The Ball
Bob Stoops wants you to know that you can't judge Oklahoma's defense by its fairly unimpressive statistics. Stoops is so desperate for you to know this that he won't even wait for reporters to ask him about his defense. He's done public service announcements. He's bought a small plane and flown it around Miami, trailing a large banner that says "OU's Defense Can't Be Judged By Stats!" He called up the general assignment reporter at Miami's Spanish language newspaper aimed at gay Cuban emigres.
Stoops' argument is pretty simple: Yes, the Sooners rank 62nd in the country in total defense and 98th in passing defense. But those numbers simply reflect the philosophy of Oklahoma's defense. They'll give up big plays, but they'll also make big plays. The Sooners, after all, have forced 32 turnovers, tied for ninth in the country. And they've recorded 42 sacks, good for 3rd in the nation. The Sooners, Stoops argues, play ferociously and make up for their mistakes by forcing the opposition into its own.
Stoops is a smart guy and a fine coach, so he's not just blowing smoke. But if Oklahoma's defensive strength lies in forcing the opposing offense into making mistakes, then they're facing a bit of a quandry when gameplanning for Florida's attack. Simply put, the Gators don't make mistakes.
Florida's lost 11 turnovers all season, the third-best figure in the nation. (Oklahoma, it must be said, ranks first with nine) The Gators have thrown three interceptions all season, best in the nation, and one of those came from the arm of back-up John Brantley in the waning moments of UF's victory over Vanderbilt. Tim Tebow has thrown just two picks all season and nine in his entire career. For all the talk from Todd McShay and the other draft "gurus" about Tebow's godawful decision-making and complete inability to read defenses, Tebow has shown an almost preternatural ability to avoid turnovers as Florida's QB.
And the Sooners aren't going to have an easy time bulling through UF's offensive line. Florida has allowed 16 sacks all season, good for 16th-best in the nation.
In short, for all the razzle dazzle in Florida's offense, for all the speed and elusiveness, UF's offense is as good as it is in large part because it's so discplined and fundamentally sound. That, by the way, is Urban Meyer's Don Quixote issue: he wants everyone to know that Florida's is not a finesse offense.
For all the receivers and spread formations the Gators use, this Florida team is all about the running game. The Gators are 11th in the country (229 yards per game) when it comes to running the football. And they don't get those statistics through a "three yards and a cloud of dust" approach. Florida averages 5.96 yards per carry. And the Gators do it with a balanced approach:
Percy Harvin: 61 carries, 538 yards, 8.8 YPC
Jeffery Demps: 69 carries, 582 yards, 8.4 YPC
Chris Rainey: 83 carries, 655 yards, 7.9 YPC
Emmanuel Moody: 57 carries, 417 yards, 7.3 YPC
Tim Tebow: 154 carries, 564 yards, 3.7 YPC
The Sooners defend the run pretty well, 16th-best in the nation. As noted above, the Sooners have struggled immensely with the pass. The question is whether Florida can take advantage of OU's weakness in that area of the game.
The Gators are a long way from those Spurrier offenses of the mid-90's. Meyer and offensive coordinator Dan Mullen don't like to sling the ball around; UF ranks 62nd in the country in passing yards per game. (212.6, for the record) But the Gators average 9.24 yards per attempt, which is awfully good. Only two of the teams in the top 10 in passing beat that number. Florida just likes to run the ball, and when you have the collection of rushing talent listed above, it's not hard to understand why.
No matter how you look at this match-up, it's hard to say the Gators don't have the advantage. If Harvin's ankle cripples him Thursday night, it'll have an impact on UF's offense. The attack was noticeably less dynamic in the Alabama game with him sitting on the bench; his acceleration is unparalleled, he's as fast as anyone in the country and he can run powerfully between the tackles.
I'm assuming he'll play, and I'm assuming he'll do so on a relatively strong ankle. If that's true, I can't imagine Oklahoma stopping the Gators at all.
Stoops' argument is pretty simple: Yes, the Sooners rank 62nd in the country in total defense and 98th in passing defense. But those numbers simply reflect the philosophy of Oklahoma's defense. They'll give up big plays, but they'll also make big plays. The Sooners, after all, have forced 32 turnovers, tied for ninth in the country. And they've recorded 42 sacks, good for 3rd in the nation. The Sooners, Stoops argues, play ferociously and make up for their mistakes by forcing the opposition into its own.
Stoops is a smart guy and a fine coach, so he's not just blowing smoke. But if Oklahoma's defensive strength lies in forcing the opposing offense into making mistakes, then they're facing a bit of a quandry when gameplanning for Florida's attack. Simply put, the Gators don't make mistakes.
Florida's lost 11 turnovers all season, the third-best figure in the nation. (Oklahoma, it must be said, ranks first with nine) The Gators have thrown three interceptions all season, best in the nation, and one of those came from the arm of back-up John Brantley in the waning moments of UF's victory over Vanderbilt. Tim Tebow has thrown just two picks all season and nine in his entire career. For all the talk from Todd McShay and the other draft "gurus" about Tebow's godawful decision-making and complete inability to read defenses, Tebow has shown an almost preternatural ability to avoid turnovers as Florida's QB.
And the Sooners aren't going to have an easy time bulling through UF's offensive line. Florida has allowed 16 sacks all season, good for 16th-best in the nation.
In short, for all the razzle dazzle in Florida's offense, for all the speed and elusiveness, UF's offense is as good as it is in large part because it's so discplined and fundamentally sound. That, by the way, is Urban Meyer's Don Quixote issue: he wants everyone to know that Florida's is not a finesse offense.
For all the receivers and spread formations the Gators use, this Florida team is all about the running game. The Gators are 11th in the country (229 yards per game) when it comes to running the football. And they don't get those statistics through a "three yards and a cloud of dust" approach. Florida averages 5.96 yards per carry. And the Gators do it with a balanced approach:
Percy Harvin: 61 carries, 538 yards, 8.8 YPC
Jeffery Demps: 69 carries, 582 yards, 8.4 YPC
Chris Rainey: 83 carries, 655 yards, 7.9 YPC
Emmanuel Moody: 57 carries, 417 yards, 7.3 YPC
Tim Tebow: 154 carries, 564 yards, 3.7 YPC
The Sooners defend the run pretty well, 16th-best in the nation. As noted above, the Sooners have struggled immensely with the pass. The question is whether Florida can take advantage of OU's weakness in that area of the game.
The Gators are a long way from those Spurrier offenses of the mid-90's. Meyer and offensive coordinator Dan Mullen don't like to sling the ball around; UF ranks 62nd in the country in passing yards per game. (212.6, for the record) But the Gators average 9.24 yards per attempt, which is awfully good. Only two of the teams in the top 10 in passing beat that number. Florida just likes to run the ball, and when you have the collection of rushing talent listed above, it's not hard to understand why.
No matter how you look at this match-up, it's hard to say the Gators don't have the advantage. If Harvin's ankle cripples him Thursday night, it'll have an impact on UF's offense. The attack was noticeably less dynamic in the Alabama game with him sitting on the bench; his acceleration is unparalleled, he's as fast as anyone in the country and he can run powerfully between the tackles.
I'm assuming he'll play, and I'm assuming he'll do so on a relatively strong ankle. If that's true, I can't imagine Oklahoma stopping the Gators at all.
Saturday, January 3, 2009
Florida 68, North Carolina State 66
Nick Calathes is an ugly dude. But he's a beautiful basketball player.
UF's extraordinary sophomore guard scored 32 points on 11 of 16 shooting to lead the Gators to an exciting, come-from-behind 68-66 win over North Carolina State. Calathes was everywhere and did everything down the stretch, scoring almost at will against a defense keyed to stop him. Calathes dished five assists, picked up five rebounds and made nine of his 13 free throws.
Floriad needed the Herculean effort because it had nothing to compare with State's inside presence. Forward Brandon Costner scored 24 points and the Wolfpack shot 58.5 percent against a Florida team that continues to struggle defensively.
But this was a different brand of defensive struggle from the one UF experienced against Syracuse. In that game, the Gators were hopeless against the Orange. UF's guards imitated matadors and the paint players pretty much stepped aside and let Syracuse score at will.
Today, UF was actually able to affect the other team on the defensive end. Florida took advantage of NC State's weak collection of guards with a strong full-court press. The Gators stole the ball 11 times and forced 18 turnovers, most of which came in the second half. Leading the defensive charge was itsy bitsy freshman Erving Walker, who recorded two steals and put pressure on every NC State player to pick up the ball.
This one didn't start like a particularly encouraging game. Florida jumped out to a small lead early in the contest, but quickly succumbed to the handful of talented post players State trotted on to the court. The Gators couldn't do anything inside (Pleasant Surprise of the Season Alex Tyus scored just two points) and couldn't hit a three-pointer to save their lives. (UF ended up two of 13 from behind the arc)
UF trailed by ten after the first 20 minutes of play, but the second half was its best of the season. The Gators never did find a way to stop NC State's halfcourt offense: UF either forced a turnover early in the possession or gave up points.
But driven by Walker's defense and Calathes' all-around brilliance, the Gators managed to briefly pull ahead late in the half. The two teams traded the lead a few times, and UF got the ball with 28 seconds left, down one.
Calathes calmly drove into the lane, lifted a one-handed running jumper and watched as it rolled through the net. NC State took the ball down the court, but the Gators once again stepped up and forced a turnover from Wolfpack guard Farnold Deagan. Calathes was credited with the steal, but it was more a product of Deagan's mistakes and UF's team pressure.
This win doesn't magically fix all UF's problems. The Gators aren't going to get taller or bigger as the season wears on. Freshman Kenny Kadji might grow into the system and give UF a little strength inside, but that's a thin reed on which to depend. Dan Werner's not going to become a legit post presence. And it's hard to imagine these guys developing into a defensive force.
But with the conference schedule on the horizon (the Gators have one more gimme non-conference game against Longwood), it's good to bank a win against a quasi-respectable ACC school. Washington and NC State aren't noticeably good teams, but they are names, and they're respectable enough to be decent wins on an NCAA resume.
UF's extraordinary sophomore guard scored 32 points on 11 of 16 shooting to lead the Gators to an exciting, come-from-behind 68-66 win over North Carolina State. Calathes was everywhere and did everything down the stretch, scoring almost at will against a defense keyed to stop him. Calathes dished five assists, picked up five rebounds and made nine of his 13 free throws.
Floriad needed the Herculean effort because it had nothing to compare with State's inside presence. Forward Brandon Costner scored 24 points and the Wolfpack shot 58.5 percent against a Florida team that continues to struggle defensively.
But this was a different brand of defensive struggle from the one UF experienced against Syracuse. In that game, the Gators were hopeless against the Orange. UF's guards imitated matadors and the paint players pretty much stepped aside and let Syracuse score at will.
Today, UF was actually able to affect the other team on the defensive end. Florida took advantage of NC State's weak collection of guards with a strong full-court press. The Gators stole the ball 11 times and forced 18 turnovers, most of which came in the second half. Leading the defensive charge was itsy bitsy freshman Erving Walker, who recorded two steals and put pressure on every NC State player to pick up the ball.
This one didn't start like a particularly encouraging game. Florida jumped out to a small lead early in the contest, but quickly succumbed to the handful of talented post players State trotted on to the court. The Gators couldn't do anything inside (Pleasant Surprise of the Season Alex Tyus scored just two points) and couldn't hit a three-pointer to save their lives. (UF ended up two of 13 from behind the arc)
UF trailed by ten after the first 20 minutes of play, but the second half was its best of the season. The Gators never did find a way to stop NC State's halfcourt offense: UF either forced a turnover early in the possession or gave up points.
But driven by Walker's defense and Calathes' all-around brilliance, the Gators managed to briefly pull ahead late in the half. The two teams traded the lead a few times, and UF got the ball with 28 seconds left, down one.
Calathes calmly drove into the lane, lifted a one-handed running jumper and watched as it rolled through the net. NC State took the ball down the court, but the Gators once again stepped up and forced a turnover from Wolfpack guard Farnold Deagan. Calathes was credited with the steal, but it was more a product of Deagan's mistakes and UF's team pressure.
This win doesn't magically fix all UF's problems. The Gators aren't going to get taller or bigger as the season wears on. Freshman Kenny Kadji might grow into the system and give UF a little strength inside, but that's a thin reed on which to depend. Dan Werner's not going to become a legit post presence. And it's hard to imagine these guys developing into a defensive force.
But with the conference schedule on the horizon (the Gators have one more gimme non-conference game against Longwood), it's good to bank a win against a quasi-respectable ACC school. Washington and NC State aren't noticeably good teams, but they are names, and they're respectable enough to be decent wins on an NCAA resume.
Tuesday, December 30, 2008
Championship Preview, Part 1: When Oklahoma Has The Ball
When Oklahoma's offense faces Florida's defense, both teams will be facing units of a quality they haven't seen this season. No one on UF's schedule features the kind of high-octane, fast-paced, record-setting offense of which Oklahoma can brag. But it works both ways: the Sooners haven't seen a defense with the speed, ferocity and overall talent of the Gators. TCU ranks higher, but it's probably fair to discount those statistics a little based on quality of competition.
This match-up takes on great importance, even beyond the obvious reasons. I think Florida's offense has a decided advantage over Oklahoma's defense (for reasons I'll explain in a later post), so Oklahoma needs to rack up the points. The Sooners won't be able to win this game without a top-flight performance from their offensive unit.
There's plenty of reason to believe they'll get it. What's frightening about Oklahoma aren't so much the statistics, though they are impressive: 562 yards per game, 54 points per game, 60+ points in each of the last 194 games, 356 passing yards per game, 205 rushing yards per game.
OK, so the stats are a little frightening.
But even beyond those numbers, Oklahoma's scary because of the sheer number of playmakers the Sooners will throw at the Gators. Heisman Trophy winner Sam Bradford is only the tip of the spear. He'll be handing off to Chris Brown, who's carried for more than 1,100 yards and 20 TDs. He'll be throwing to a quartet of prolific receivers: any one of Juaquin Iglesias, Jermaine Gresham, Manny Johnson or Ryan Broyles could start for Florida. And beyond those four there's Quentin Chaney, who's caught 27 passes for 467 yards.
To be sure, the Gators are in this position because their defense has taken a massive step forward from where they were during the 2008 Capital One Bowl. UF is ninth in the country in total defense, 15th in rushing defense, 19th in passing defense. Florida has talent liberally sprinkled throughout the field.
But for all those numbers, there are still some weak points. Joe Haden has improved significantly in his second year with UF and as a cornerback, but some teams have exploited him. LSU's Brandon LaFell abused Haden throughout the game, as did true freshman Julio Jones for Alabama.
Florida weathered Haden's struggles in those games because LSU didn't have the quarterback to take advantage of the situation and because Alabama didn't have a receiving weapon besides Jones. Neither of those things are true for Oklahoma. Bradford will read the holes in Florida's defense, and he has half a dozen targets to choose from. The Gators can't cheat to help Haden. He'll need to play top-flight football, because he'll be playing it without a net.
Gresham, Oklahoma's outstanding tight end, presents a particular match-up problem for the Gators. UF does have the advantage of two corners with above-average physical strength; Haden and Janoris Jenkins are big hitters. But Gresham's 6-6 and 261 pounds; neither Haden nor Jenkins are six feet tall. And throwing a linebacker on him is problematic as well. Brandon Spikes doesn't really have the speed or overall athleticism to cover Gresham, and besides, you don't want Spikes running down the field in pass coverage. You want him in the box, blowing up Brown or whoever else Oklahoma uses to run the football. Dustin Doe is fast enough for the job, but he's not big enough to physically handle Gresham.
UF's best option might be true freshman Will Hill, which is kind of scary. He's more than fast enough to cover Gresham, and his size (6'2, more than 210 pounds) means Gresham won't be able to physically intimidate him. That's not a great option, but it's the best I can come up with right now.
But the Gators' biggest problem is along the defensive line. Oklahoma's offensive line is massive. The Sooners have allowed just 11 sacks all season, the 3rd-best figure in the country. Florida, meanwhile, is just 32nd in the country in sacks; they've picked up 32 all season long. That's not a bad figure, but it's not a good one either, and when combined with Oklahoma's skill in pass protection, it's hard to see UF knocking Bradford down with much frequency.
A pass rush is the great equalizer: a bad QB, throwing to bad receivers, is still going to have success if he can stand untouched in the pocket and wait for someone to come open. Conversely, a great QB, throwing to great receivers, is rendered impotent if he has to run for his life on every play. The worst thing a defense can do is give a great quarterback all the time in the world to throw to great receivers.
Florida knows that better than most. The Gators turned 2006 Heisman Trophy winner Troy Smith into a shattered shell of himself because Jarvis Moss and Derrick Harvey eviscerated Ohio State's offensive line. If they can't put at least a little pressure on Bradford, the Gators are going to have to score more than 50 points to win.
This match-up takes on great importance, even beyond the obvious reasons. I think Florida's offense has a decided advantage over Oklahoma's defense (for reasons I'll explain in a later post), so Oklahoma needs to rack up the points. The Sooners won't be able to win this game without a top-flight performance from their offensive unit.
There's plenty of reason to believe they'll get it. What's frightening about Oklahoma aren't so much the statistics, though they are impressive: 562 yards per game, 54 points per game, 60+ points in each of the last 194 games, 356 passing yards per game, 205 rushing yards per game.
OK, so the stats are a little frightening.
But even beyond those numbers, Oklahoma's scary because of the sheer number of playmakers the Sooners will throw at the Gators. Heisman Trophy winner Sam Bradford is only the tip of the spear. He'll be handing off to Chris Brown, who's carried for more than 1,100 yards and 20 TDs. He'll be throwing to a quartet of prolific receivers: any one of Juaquin Iglesias, Jermaine Gresham, Manny Johnson or Ryan Broyles could start for Florida. And beyond those four there's Quentin Chaney, who's caught 27 passes for 467 yards.
To be sure, the Gators are in this position because their defense has taken a massive step forward from where they were during the 2008 Capital One Bowl. UF is ninth in the country in total defense, 15th in rushing defense, 19th in passing defense. Florida has talent liberally sprinkled throughout the field.
But for all those numbers, there are still some weak points. Joe Haden has improved significantly in his second year with UF and as a cornerback, but some teams have exploited him. LSU's Brandon LaFell abused Haden throughout the game, as did true freshman Julio Jones for Alabama.
Florida weathered Haden's struggles in those games because LSU didn't have the quarterback to take advantage of the situation and because Alabama didn't have a receiving weapon besides Jones. Neither of those things are true for Oklahoma. Bradford will read the holes in Florida's defense, and he has half a dozen targets to choose from. The Gators can't cheat to help Haden. He'll need to play top-flight football, because he'll be playing it without a net.
Gresham, Oklahoma's outstanding tight end, presents a particular match-up problem for the Gators. UF does have the advantage of two corners with above-average physical strength; Haden and Janoris Jenkins are big hitters. But Gresham's 6-6 and 261 pounds; neither Haden nor Jenkins are six feet tall. And throwing a linebacker on him is problematic as well. Brandon Spikes doesn't really have the speed or overall athleticism to cover Gresham, and besides, you don't want Spikes running down the field in pass coverage. You want him in the box, blowing up Brown or whoever else Oklahoma uses to run the football. Dustin Doe is fast enough for the job, but he's not big enough to physically handle Gresham.
UF's best option might be true freshman Will Hill, which is kind of scary. He's more than fast enough to cover Gresham, and his size (6'2, more than 210 pounds) means Gresham won't be able to physically intimidate him. That's not a great option, but it's the best I can come up with right now.
But the Gators' biggest problem is along the defensive line. Oklahoma's offensive line is massive. The Sooners have allowed just 11 sacks all season, the 3rd-best figure in the country. Florida, meanwhile, is just 32nd in the country in sacks; they've picked up 32 all season long. That's not a bad figure, but it's not a good one either, and when combined with Oklahoma's skill in pass protection, it's hard to see UF knocking Bradford down with much frequency.
A pass rush is the great equalizer: a bad QB, throwing to bad receivers, is still going to have success if he can stand untouched in the pocket and wait for someone to come open. Conversely, a great QB, throwing to great receivers, is rendered impotent if he has to run for his life on every play. The worst thing a defense can do is give a great quarterback all the time in the world to throw to great receivers.
Florida knows that better than most. The Gators turned 2006 Heisman Trophy winner Troy Smith into a shattered shell of himself because Jarvis Moss and Derrick Harvey eviscerated Ohio State's offensive line. If they can't put at least a little pressure on Bradford, the Gators are going to have to score more than 50 points to win.
Wednesday, December 10, 2008
Starkville: The Mogadishu of the United States
No official announcement yet, but by every indication UF offensive coordinator Dan Mullen will be the new head coach at Mississippi State.
I'll get into the ramifications of that in a minute, but I do want to write a few lines about Mullen's evolution. He's incredibly young by football standards, only 36, and when he came over with Urban Meyer from Utah in 2005 he was just 33. The Gators' offense in that 2005 season was pathetic, and not just in comparison to the high-flying Spurrier days. UF was 61st in the country in total offense, 56th in rushing. Poor Chris Leak tried to adapt to a foreign offense while running for his life behind a porous line that allowed 35 sacks on the year. It all culminated in a mid-season loss to LSU that featured what had to have been one of the worst offensive performances in Florida history. Mullen was not a popular guy in Gator Nation after that season.
He wasn't substantially more popular in 2006 despite the national championship. UF's offense, while statistically superior and notably more explosive than the 2005 unit, was inconsistent, as was the quality of Mullen's play-calling. He'd call a great game (the first half of the loss to Auburn) only to degenerate into predictability and ineffectiveness. (The second half of the loss to Auburn, the third quarter of the SEC Championship Game against Arkansas)
The talk died down slightly in 2007 as the Tim Tebow-led offense racked up huge numbers. Tebow won the Heisman and gave much of the credit to Mullen, who also acts as Florida's QB coach. Some still grumbled, as UF's offense sputtered in the fourth quarter of every one of the team's four losses, but it was hard to criticize him.
That criticism exploded to the fore this year after the Mississippi loss and actually intensified further after UF's relatively unimpressive victory over Arkansas. It was no longer possible to rationalize the offense's failings; the 2005 team had an awful line and precious few wide receivers of any value. The 2008 squad had all the talent needed to be a behemoth and Mullen was in the SEC long enough to know how to call plays in the conference. Mullen was dangerously close to falling off the cliff.
Then came the flawless win over LSU, a win that was followed by an extraordinary stretch of dominating football. And all of a sudden, the offensive coordinator of that juggernaut became a highly valued commodity.
It will be a struggle for Mullen at Mississippi State. Ole Miss is a much more prestigious university, has a much more prestigious football team and is, in innumerable ways, a more desirable place than MSU. He's not taking over a talent laden team, and the Bulldogs don't have the playmakers to successfully run a spread offense.
The more immediate concern is how this announcement will affect Florida in the National Championship Game. (Wooo!) As The Gainesville Sun story I linked indicated, there's as yet no word on whether Mullen will stick around for the game. I suspect he will. The pundits are already drawing comparisons to Mark Richt in 2000, when he took the Georgia job while preparing Florida State's gameplan for the national championship game against... Oklahoma. (Seriously, this is some Twilight Zone stuff) FSU's previously explosive offense sputtered, scoring zero points in FSU's 13-2 loss.
On the other hand, Bo Pellini took the Nebraska job while preparing LSU's defense for last year's championship game and the Tigers dominated Ohio State. And Urban Meyer himself served two masters in late 2004, preparing his Utah team for the Fiesta Bowl while recruiting for Florida. Utah eviscerated Pittsburgh, though that Panthers squad was probably the worst team to ever play in a BCS bowl. So there are certainly some positive precedents here.
It's hard to say until the details are clear, but if you figure that Mullen's departure was essentially inevitable, than this is as good a time as any for it to happen. It's early in the process, and you can hope (pray?) that the media will exhaust its distraction questions relatively soon. Better to deal with questions about whether this will distract the team than to answer "will he or won't he" questions with non-denial denials for the next month.
I'll get into the ramifications of that in a minute, but I do want to write a few lines about Mullen's evolution. He's incredibly young by football standards, only 36, and when he came over with Urban Meyer from Utah in 2005 he was just 33. The Gators' offense in that 2005 season was pathetic, and not just in comparison to the high-flying Spurrier days. UF was 61st in the country in total offense, 56th in rushing. Poor Chris Leak tried to adapt to a foreign offense while running for his life behind a porous line that allowed 35 sacks on the year. It all culminated in a mid-season loss to LSU that featured what had to have been one of the worst offensive performances in Florida history. Mullen was not a popular guy in Gator Nation after that season.
He wasn't substantially more popular in 2006 despite the national championship. UF's offense, while statistically superior and notably more explosive than the 2005 unit, was inconsistent, as was the quality of Mullen's play-calling. He'd call a great game (the first half of the loss to Auburn) only to degenerate into predictability and ineffectiveness. (The second half of the loss to Auburn, the third quarter of the SEC Championship Game against Arkansas)
The talk died down slightly in 2007 as the Tim Tebow-led offense racked up huge numbers. Tebow won the Heisman and gave much of the credit to Mullen, who also acts as Florida's QB coach. Some still grumbled, as UF's offense sputtered in the fourth quarter of every one of the team's four losses, but it was hard to criticize him.
That criticism exploded to the fore this year after the Mississippi loss and actually intensified further after UF's relatively unimpressive victory over Arkansas. It was no longer possible to rationalize the offense's failings; the 2005 team had an awful line and precious few wide receivers of any value. The 2008 squad had all the talent needed to be a behemoth and Mullen was in the SEC long enough to know how to call plays in the conference. Mullen was dangerously close to falling off the cliff.
Then came the flawless win over LSU, a win that was followed by an extraordinary stretch of dominating football. And all of a sudden, the offensive coordinator of that juggernaut became a highly valued commodity.
It will be a struggle for Mullen at Mississippi State. Ole Miss is a much more prestigious university, has a much more prestigious football team and is, in innumerable ways, a more desirable place than MSU. He's not taking over a talent laden team, and the Bulldogs don't have the playmakers to successfully run a spread offense.
The more immediate concern is how this announcement will affect Florida in the National Championship Game. (Wooo!) As The Gainesville Sun story I linked indicated, there's as yet no word on whether Mullen will stick around for the game. I suspect he will. The pundits are already drawing comparisons to Mark Richt in 2000, when he took the Georgia job while preparing Florida State's gameplan for the national championship game against... Oklahoma. (Seriously, this is some Twilight Zone stuff) FSU's previously explosive offense sputtered, scoring zero points in FSU's 13-2 loss.
On the other hand, Bo Pellini took the Nebraska job while preparing LSU's defense for last year's championship game and the Tigers dominated Ohio State. And Urban Meyer himself served two masters in late 2004, preparing his Utah team for the Fiesta Bowl while recruiting for Florida. Utah eviscerated Pittsburgh, though that Panthers squad was probably the worst team to ever play in a BCS bowl. So there are certainly some positive precedents here.
It's hard to say until the details are clear, but if you figure that Mullen's departure was essentially inevitable, than this is as good a time as any for it to happen. It's early in the process, and you can hope (pray?) that the media will exhaust its distraction questions relatively soon. Better to deal with questions about whether this will distract the team than to answer "will he or won't he" questions with non-denial denials for the next month.
Sunday, December 7, 2008
Officially Official
Florida to face Oklahoma in the National Championship Game. The first time these schools will play each other.
There's obviously a lot of time before January 8 to analyze the match-up, but here's what I've come up with off the top of my head: both teams have such explosive offenses that the team that can make an occasional stop will win. And Florida's got a better defense than Oklahoma. The question is whether the difference between UF's offense and Oklahoma's defense is greater than the difference between Oklahoma's offense and UF's defense.
There's obviously a lot of time before January 8 to analyze the match-up, but here's what I've come up with off the top of my head: both teams have such explosive offenses that the team that can make an occasional stop will win. And Florida's got a better defense than Oklahoma. The question is whether the difference between UF's offense and Oklahoma's defense is greater than the difference between Oklahoma's offense and UF's defense.
Saturday, December 6, 2008
Florida 31, Alabama 20
I don't know if Tim Tebow is going to win the Heisman this year. I don't know if, strictly speaking, he deserves. Graham Harrell, Sam Bradford and Colt McCoy are extraordinary quarterbacks, and if you want to say that any of them should win the award this year, I won't argue.
But there is no one on Earth I'd rather have quarterbacking my alma mater.
All the hype, all the fawning adulation Gator fans were accused of showering on Tebow, it was justified. All of it. If there was any doubt of that before tonight, if a Heisman Trophy and otherworldly numbers and a laudable personal life were not enough to convince you, Tebow made skepticism untenable with his performance. Florida won the SEC Championship and almost certainly earned another berth in a national championship game because of Tebow.
He had help, of course. Jeff Demps didn't do anything spectacular, but the diminutive true freshman carried the load as Florida's primary running back. Riley Cooper caught two huge passes, including the game clinching touchdown. Aaron Hernandez took a shovel pass and rumbled for a crucial first down and also climbed the ladder to make a wonderful catch. And senior Louis Murphy played brilliantly in his final conference game.
But this was Tebow's night. Much was made about the lack of a fourth quarter comeback on Tebow's resume; he had never won a game when Florida trailed at any point in the fourth quarter. Well, the Gators entered the fourth quarter trailing 20-17, thanks to a dominating and demoralizing performance by Alabama in the third quarter. The Tide started the second half down 17-10, but rolled up and down the field on UF's depleted defensive line, keeping Tebow and UF's offense off the field. Alabama running back Glen Coffee rolled through the massive holes his offensive line opened, and the Gators could not cover freshman phenom Julio Jones.
And with his arm and with his legs Tebow hauled Florida to a championship. Percy Harvin didn't set foot on the field, and UF's offense definitely suffered for it. As mentioned, Demps couldn't find much running room. Chris Rainey was surprisingly absent from the game plan, carrying the ball only once. Brandon James was ineffective. Even Louis Murphy carried the ball for the first time all year. It was on Tebow to perform magic; he carried the ball 17 times and completed 14 passes in 22 attempts for 216 yards and three touchdowns.
With 14:42 left in the game, Florida took over at its own 38. 11 plays (nine rushes) and 5:47 later, Tebow pitched to Demps on the option for a short touchdown. The Gators took a 24-20 lead and Alabama would get the ball back with 9:21 to go.
It was then that Florida's defensive line, ravaged by injuries and pushed all game by Alabama's o-line, rose to the challenge and finally grabbed the sputtering torch left by the dominant 2006 defense. On 3rd and 8, Jermaine Cunningham sacked Alabama QB John Parker-Wilson for a loss of 11 yards. The Tide punted.
Alabama's defense, 70,000 people in the Georgia Dome and everyone watching at home waited for Florida to grind out a long drive with just 7:27 left in the game. Instead, after gaining a first down on the ground, offensive coordinator Dan Mullen put the ball in the air. Tebow connected with Murphy on a beautiful 33-yard fade route down the right sideline. On the next play, Tebow rifled a pass high to Hernandez, who made the biggest catch of his life in leaping high in the Georgia sky and reeling in the throw for 15 yards.
Tebow carved his legacy into granite in the plays that followed. He gained five yards on first and goal from the Alabama six, but a sideline infraction pushed Florida back five yards. Demps was stuffed on 2nd and goal.
But on 3rd and goal, Tebow hit his roommate Cooper on a perfectly thrown slant pattern in the endzone. Alabama had some time left, but Joe Haden intercepted Parker-Wilson on a desperation throw on the next drive.
Tim Tebow was the star tonight, but I have to give myself some props as well. Before the Florida basketball team's 2006 National Championship Game against UCLA, I raced do a university convenience store and bought a one pound value bag of Rold Gold pretzels. A year later, I bought the same pretzels at the Macclenny Super Wal-Mart.
I broke out the Gator Good Luck Pretzels again tonight. And again, they came through. You better believe I'm buying a back before the national championship game, assuming the Gators reach that point.
But there is no one on Earth I'd rather have quarterbacking my alma mater.
All the hype, all the fawning adulation Gator fans were accused of showering on Tebow, it was justified. All of it. If there was any doubt of that before tonight, if a Heisman Trophy and otherworldly numbers and a laudable personal life were not enough to convince you, Tebow made skepticism untenable with his performance. Florida won the SEC Championship and almost certainly earned another berth in a national championship game because of Tebow.
He had help, of course. Jeff Demps didn't do anything spectacular, but the diminutive true freshman carried the load as Florida's primary running back. Riley Cooper caught two huge passes, including the game clinching touchdown. Aaron Hernandez took a shovel pass and rumbled for a crucial first down and also climbed the ladder to make a wonderful catch. And senior Louis Murphy played brilliantly in his final conference game.
But this was Tebow's night. Much was made about the lack of a fourth quarter comeback on Tebow's resume; he had never won a game when Florida trailed at any point in the fourth quarter. Well, the Gators entered the fourth quarter trailing 20-17, thanks to a dominating and demoralizing performance by Alabama in the third quarter. The Tide started the second half down 17-10, but rolled up and down the field on UF's depleted defensive line, keeping Tebow and UF's offense off the field. Alabama running back Glen Coffee rolled through the massive holes his offensive line opened, and the Gators could not cover freshman phenom Julio Jones.
And with his arm and with his legs Tebow hauled Florida to a championship. Percy Harvin didn't set foot on the field, and UF's offense definitely suffered for it. As mentioned, Demps couldn't find much running room. Chris Rainey was surprisingly absent from the game plan, carrying the ball only once. Brandon James was ineffective. Even Louis Murphy carried the ball for the first time all year. It was on Tebow to perform magic; he carried the ball 17 times and completed 14 passes in 22 attempts for 216 yards and three touchdowns.
With 14:42 left in the game, Florida took over at its own 38. 11 plays (nine rushes) and 5:47 later, Tebow pitched to Demps on the option for a short touchdown. The Gators took a 24-20 lead and Alabama would get the ball back with 9:21 to go.
It was then that Florida's defensive line, ravaged by injuries and pushed all game by Alabama's o-line, rose to the challenge and finally grabbed the sputtering torch left by the dominant 2006 defense. On 3rd and 8, Jermaine Cunningham sacked Alabama QB John Parker-Wilson for a loss of 11 yards. The Tide punted.
Alabama's defense, 70,000 people in the Georgia Dome and everyone watching at home waited for Florida to grind out a long drive with just 7:27 left in the game. Instead, after gaining a first down on the ground, offensive coordinator Dan Mullen put the ball in the air. Tebow connected with Murphy on a beautiful 33-yard fade route down the right sideline. On the next play, Tebow rifled a pass high to Hernandez, who made the biggest catch of his life in leaping high in the Georgia sky and reeling in the throw for 15 yards.
Tebow carved his legacy into granite in the plays that followed. He gained five yards on first and goal from the Alabama six, but a sideline infraction pushed Florida back five yards. Demps was stuffed on 2nd and goal.
But on 3rd and goal, Tebow hit his roommate Cooper on a perfectly thrown slant pattern in the endzone. Alabama had some time left, but Joe Haden intercepted Parker-Wilson on a desperation throw on the next drive.
Tim Tebow was the star tonight, but I have to give myself some props as well. Before the Florida basketball team's 2006 National Championship Game against UCLA, I raced do a university convenience store and bought a one pound value bag of Rold Gold pretzels. A year later, I bought the same pretzels at the Macclenny Super Wal-Mart.
I broke out the Gator Good Luck Pretzels again tonight. And again, they came through. You better believe I'm buying a back before the national championship game, assuming the Gators reach that point.
Friday, December 5, 2008
SEC Championship Preview
This Alabama-Florida match-up is catnip for the media because it perfectly fits into the kind of black and white, dichotomous narrative that makes for great (and easy) copy.
Alabama! Old-school! Tradition! Bear Bryant!
Florida! Nouveau riche! Fresh! Rash!
Alabama! Smash mouth! GamesAreWonInTheTrenches! Tough!
Florida! Finessee! Speed! Gimmicky offense! Five wide receivers...five wide receivers!
The stories practically write themselves. It's like a kid's movie. One team pounds the ball behind a massive offensive line, suffocates opposing offenses and grinds them into dust. The other team uses clever formations and pure speed to run by defenses and leave them gasping for air.
But in a shocking development, things are rarely so simple. Alabama is the team committed to the running game and pounding the ball, except Florida has the 10th-best running game in the country while Alabama checks in at 22nd. Alabama's all about defense while Florida's team revolves around a high-powered offense, except the Gators actually have the 7th best defense in the country. (Alabama's better, to be sure) Alabama has the dominant offensive line in this game, anchored by future NFL star Andre Smith, except Florida has allowed one fewer sack than the Crimson Tide. Alabama has the dominant defensive line and Saban's a master at crafting exotic blitz packages that put QBs to the turf, except Florida ranks 23rd in the country in sacks while Bama checks in at 57th. Those exotic blitz packages cause turnovers, but it's Florida that's third in the country in turnovers forced, while Alabama is just 40th.
But the narrative has a force and power all its own, so we get smash mouth v. finesse. (Ask SEC defensive backs if they see any element of finesse with Tim Tebow) We also get a lot of talk about Florida's injuries, but maybe not the most important ones.
Most of the attention has focused on Percy Harvin and his trick ankle, which he sprained against FSU. In another shocking development, Urban Meyer has been relatively tight-lipped about his star. It's a high ankle sprain, but that's about all we know. Meyer won't say whether Harvin will play Saturday; he's one of those infamous "game time decisions." All that said, I can't imagine Percy is going to sit this one out. He was huge in the 2006 SEC Championship Game and the Georgia Dome turf can only make him more dangerous. The question isn't whether he'll play, but rather how effective he'll be, and there's no way to answer that. Without information it's impossible to make an informed guess; Harvin could be anything from a barely mobile decoy to a fully armed and operational battle station.
Harvin's an extraordinary player, but Meyer can come close to replicating his contributions with Jeff Demps and Chris Rainey. More of a concern is the defensive line, where two players (Matt Patchan and Brandon Antwine) are out for the season after suffering serious injuries; Antwine joins Florida's lengthy list of ACL tears. Lawrence Marsh is apparently back at 100 percent after playing through pain against Florida State. Against a team with Alabama's rushing attack, that could prove troublesome.
Offensively, the Gators have established the much ballyhooed "identity." Florida's a running team with the ability to go to the air if needed. As mentioned above, UF has the 10th-best rushing attack in the country, and four of the teams ahead of the Gators feature option attacks and never throw the ball. Considering Saban's vaunted ability to to scheme confusing defenses, I see no reason to expect Florida to start throwing the ball around the field as an homage to Steve Spurrier.
While Florida's running game features some traditional option and other plays that get Demps, Rainey and Harvin on the perimeter, the Gators generally run between the tackles, even with the diminutive freshmen. But Alabama can challenge that gameplan like no one else Florida has played. Massive defensive tackle Terrance Cody is almost guaranteed to occupy two of Florida's interior linemen. He's a disruptive force, and if Florida was playing 'Bama at the beginning of the season, when UF had serious issues on the offensive line, he'd probably tear a bloody swath through the Gators. Fortunately Carl Johnson has stepped in at left guard and stabilized the interior line.
I'm predicting a 24-20 win for Florida. This is a dramatic over-simplification, but I think it comes down to this: Alabama has a great defense. Florida has a great defense. Florida has a great offense. Alabama does not.
In other words, Florida can match Alabama's strength. Alabama cannot say the same thing.
Alabama! Old-school! Tradition! Bear Bryant!
Florida! Nouveau riche! Fresh! Rash!
Alabama! Smash mouth! GamesAreWonInTheTrenches! Tough!
Florida! Finessee! Speed! Gimmicky offense! Five wide receivers...five wide receivers!
The stories practically write themselves. It's like a kid's movie. One team pounds the ball behind a massive offensive line, suffocates opposing offenses and grinds them into dust. The other team uses clever formations and pure speed to run by defenses and leave them gasping for air.
But in a shocking development, things are rarely so simple. Alabama is the team committed to the running game and pounding the ball, except Florida has the 10th-best running game in the country while Alabama checks in at 22nd. Alabama's all about defense while Florida's team revolves around a high-powered offense, except the Gators actually have the 7th best defense in the country. (Alabama's better, to be sure) Alabama has the dominant offensive line in this game, anchored by future NFL star Andre Smith, except Florida has allowed one fewer sack than the Crimson Tide. Alabama has the dominant defensive line and Saban's a master at crafting exotic blitz packages that put QBs to the turf, except Florida ranks 23rd in the country in sacks while Bama checks in at 57th. Those exotic blitz packages cause turnovers, but it's Florida that's third in the country in turnovers forced, while Alabama is just 40th.
But the narrative has a force and power all its own, so we get smash mouth v. finesse. (Ask SEC defensive backs if they see any element of finesse with Tim Tebow) We also get a lot of talk about Florida's injuries, but maybe not the most important ones.
Most of the attention has focused on Percy Harvin and his trick ankle, which he sprained against FSU. In another shocking development, Urban Meyer has been relatively tight-lipped about his star. It's a high ankle sprain, but that's about all we know. Meyer won't say whether Harvin will play Saturday; he's one of those infamous "game time decisions." All that said, I can't imagine Percy is going to sit this one out. He was huge in the 2006 SEC Championship Game and the Georgia Dome turf can only make him more dangerous. The question isn't whether he'll play, but rather how effective he'll be, and there's no way to answer that. Without information it's impossible to make an informed guess; Harvin could be anything from a barely mobile decoy to a fully armed and operational battle station.
Harvin's an extraordinary player, but Meyer can come close to replicating his contributions with Jeff Demps and Chris Rainey. More of a concern is the defensive line, where two players (Matt Patchan and Brandon Antwine) are out for the season after suffering serious injuries; Antwine joins Florida's lengthy list of ACL tears. Lawrence Marsh is apparently back at 100 percent after playing through pain against Florida State. Against a team with Alabama's rushing attack, that could prove troublesome.
Offensively, the Gators have established the much ballyhooed "identity." Florida's a running team with the ability to go to the air if needed. As mentioned above, UF has the 10th-best rushing attack in the country, and four of the teams ahead of the Gators feature option attacks and never throw the ball. Considering Saban's vaunted ability to to scheme confusing defenses, I see no reason to expect Florida to start throwing the ball around the field as an homage to Steve Spurrier.
While Florida's running game features some traditional option and other plays that get Demps, Rainey and Harvin on the perimeter, the Gators generally run between the tackles, even with the diminutive freshmen. But Alabama can challenge that gameplan like no one else Florida has played. Massive defensive tackle Terrance Cody is almost guaranteed to occupy two of Florida's interior linemen. He's a disruptive force, and if Florida was playing 'Bama at the beginning of the season, when UF had serious issues on the offensive line, he'd probably tear a bloody swath through the Gators. Fortunately Carl Johnson has stepped in at left guard and stabilized the interior line.
I'm predicting a 24-20 win for Florida. This is a dramatic over-simplification, but I think it comes down to this: Alabama has a great defense. Florida has a great defense. Florida has a great offense. Alabama does not.
In other words, Florida can match Alabama's strength. Alabama cannot say the same thing.
Saturday, November 29, 2008
Florida 45, Florida State 15
The talent disparity between these teams can be summed up with the following two statements:
1. The Florida Gators were quarterbacked by Tim Tebow.
2. The Florida State Seminoles started Christian Ponder at QB, but eventually replaced him with Drew Weatherford.
The Gators eviscerated Florida State with almost contemptuous ease, dispatching the Seminoles on a dreary, rain-soaked day that left the field at Doak Campbell Stadium a morass. It didn't slow down Florida, which put up 502 yards on the Seminoles despite few contributions from Percy Harvin.
They didn't get much from Harvin because he twisted his ankle on a goal line play. ABC announcer Bob Griese practically wrote Harvin's postmortem before Percy was able to limp off the field, declaring him out for the SEC Championship Game and probably the bowl game. That seems premature to me. We don't know his status yet; suffice it to say losing Harvin would be a huge blow to UF's chances against Alabama.
Aside from the Harvin injury it was a lovely game in crummy weather. The Gators racked up 317 rushing yards on a theoretically stout FSU defense; Chris Rainey picked up 97 yards, Jeff Demps 89, Tim Tebow 80, Emmanuel Moody 40. That's balance we can believe in.
Tebow accounted for four touchdowns, three through on the air, one on the ground, but he only threw for 185 yards, probably not enough to make a dent in the Heisman race. He's got one more marquis game to impress voters; if Tebow wants to repeat as the Heisman winner, he'd be well advised to throw for about 300 yards and notch five or six touchdowns.
His favorite target today was tight end Aaron Hernandez, who caught four passes for 61 yards. Hernandez scorched FSU twice on shovel passes I saw coming from the second he went in motion, but which evidently caught the Seminoles completely by surprise. Hernandez has emerged as a viable third option behind Harvin and Louis Murphy, who reeled in another touchdown pass today. Even David Nelson caught two passes.
The game was never really in doubt. Florida scored on its first, third, fifth and sixth possessions and entered halftime with a 28-9 lead. Florida State's most effective weapons were kicker Graham Gano, who nailed all three of his field goal attempts but did his only extra point blocked by about three different Gators, and return man Michael Ray Garvin, who repeatedly gashed UF's coverage unit. Bizarrely, the Seminoles had great field position throughout the game, but never showed any ability to capitalize on their good fortune.
For his part Urban Meyer moved to 12-1 against UF's four big rivals: FSU, Georgia, Miami and Tennessee, and he's won those games by a combined score of 408-180.
Florida's last remaining challenge is abundantly clear: defeat the 12-0, number one-ranked Alabama Crimson Tide in the SEC Championship Game next Saturday. Do that and, barring some kind of SkyNet-esque computer revolution, the Gators will reach their second national championship game in three years. Expect a preview next week.
1. The Florida Gators were quarterbacked by Tim Tebow.
2. The Florida State Seminoles started Christian Ponder at QB, but eventually replaced him with Drew Weatherford.
The Gators eviscerated Florida State with almost contemptuous ease, dispatching the Seminoles on a dreary, rain-soaked day that left the field at Doak Campbell Stadium a morass. It didn't slow down Florida, which put up 502 yards on the Seminoles despite few contributions from Percy Harvin.
They didn't get much from Harvin because he twisted his ankle on a goal line play. ABC announcer Bob Griese practically wrote Harvin's postmortem before Percy was able to limp off the field, declaring him out for the SEC Championship Game and probably the bowl game. That seems premature to me. We don't know his status yet; suffice it to say losing Harvin would be a huge blow to UF's chances against Alabama.
Aside from the Harvin injury it was a lovely game in crummy weather. The Gators racked up 317 rushing yards on a theoretically stout FSU defense; Chris Rainey picked up 97 yards, Jeff Demps 89, Tim Tebow 80, Emmanuel Moody 40. That's balance we can believe in.
Tebow accounted for four touchdowns, three through on the air, one on the ground, but he only threw for 185 yards, probably not enough to make a dent in the Heisman race. He's got one more marquis game to impress voters; if Tebow wants to repeat as the Heisman winner, he'd be well advised to throw for about 300 yards and notch five or six touchdowns.
His favorite target today was tight end Aaron Hernandez, who caught four passes for 61 yards. Hernandez scorched FSU twice on shovel passes I saw coming from the second he went in motion, but which evidently caught the Seminoles completely by surprise. Hernandez has emerged as a viable third option behind Harvin and Louis Murphy, who reeled in another touchdown pass today. Even David Nelson caught two passes.
The game was never really in doubt. Florida scored on its first, third, fifth and sixth possessions and entered halftime with a 28-9 lead. Florida State's most effective weapons were kicker Graham Gano, who nailed all three of his field goal attempts but did his only extra point blocked by about three different Gators, and return man Michael Ray Garvin, who repeatedly gashed UF's coverage unit. Bizarrely, the Seminoles had great field position throughout the game, but never showed any ability to capitalize on their good fortune.
For his part Urban Meyer moved to 12-1 against UF's four big rivals: FSU, Georgia, Miami and Tennessee, and he's won those games by a combined score of 408-180.
Florida's last remaining challenge is abundantly clear: defeat the 12-0, number one-ranked Alabama Crimson Tide in the SEC Championship Game next Saturday. Do that and, barring some kind of SkyNet-esque computer revolution, the Gators will reach their second national championship game in three years. Expect a preview next week.
Wednesday, November 26, 2008
A Last, Very Annoying Roadblock
Sports Illustrated's Stewart Mandel recently wrote that this year's Florida State team is the best one Florida has faced since Urban Meyer took over in Gainesville. That's true. I would argue, however, that says more about the state of FSU's program than it does about the quality of this particular team.
It's tempting to compare the situation faced by this Florida team to the one surrounding the 2001 squad, Steve Spurrier's last. Both teams played bitter rivals for the last game of the regular season: the 2008 team will face Florida State and the 2001 club played Tennessee in a showdown pushed back from its normal early season date by the September 11 attacks. Both teams were two wins away from a berth in the national championship game. Prolific quarterbacks led both teams (Rex Grossman quarterbacked the 2001 unit) to repeated blowouts. And both teams had those otherwise great seasons ruined by heartbreaking losses to unranked SEC West opponents: Auburn was the early prototype for the 2008 Ole Miss team that haunts Meyer's dreams.
The 2001 team saw its national championship ambitions shattered by the Volunteers; many still argue that upset drove Spurrier to the NFL. As I said, it's tempting to worry about history repeating in 2008.
The one key difference between the two seasons, however, is that the 2001 Tennessee team was actually good. They would go on to lose to LSU in the SEC Championship Game, but the Volunteers came into The Swamp ranked fifth in the country and boasting a 9-1 record. Florida State, by contrast, is 8-3 in the mediocre ACC and doesn't even control its own destiny in the race for the conference championship game.
But it is worth acknowledging that this year's Florida State team is better than the clubs Meyer and the Gators whacked in 2005-07. The Seminoles rank 45th in the nation offensively, a hearty boost from their rankings the last couple years. The defense is revitalized too, if not to the level of those frightening mid-90's units that just kept producing first round defensive linemen and linebackers. The Seminoles rank fourth in the nation in sacks with 3.18 per game. A replay of UF's early season offensive line issues could prove disastrous for the Gators.
I expect the Seminoles to challenge UF's secondary (which, despite all its great work this season, has yet to fully earn my trust); Greg Carr, Preston Parker, Taiwan Easterling, Corey Surrency have all put up respectable numbers and are dangerous in their own ways. Parker is kind of an unemployed Lehman Brothers' analyst's Percy Harvin, and at 6'6, Carr presents serious match-up issues with UF's cornerbacks.
But the Seminoles still don't have a QB on the level of Tim Tebow, which would be fine, except they still don't have a QB on the level of Casey Claussen or Chris Rix. Christian Ponder was elevated to the starting position before the season began, beating out frequent punching bag Drew Weatherford, who frankly was too nice to a guy to deserve playing behind that offensive line four straight seasons. Ponder's a mobile guy and has picked up 390 yards on 106 carries, which is impressive considering the Seminoles are 59th in the nation at preventing sacks. But Ponder is also completing just 56.4 percent of his passes and has just 12 touchdowns against 11 interceptions.
No, the Seminoles are going to try and make their hay running the ball. They rank 28th in the nation in rushing offense, and again, that's a massive improvement from the last several years. Antone Smith is finally living up to a portion of his high school hype, and back-up QB D'Vontrey Richardson has some nice numbers as a runner. The worrisome factor here is the status of Florida's defensive line. Freshman Matt Patchan is out with a knee injury and sophomore Lawrence Marsh is questionable due to a similar ailment. Patchan's loss is mainly a blow to depth, but Marsh is by far the best defensive tackle Florida has. If he's out, or even if he's playing at a fraction of his ability, the Seminoles might be able to find some holes in Florida's patchwork defensive line. That's the match-up to keep an eye on, I suspect.
On the other side, there's not much for Florida to change offensively. Considering FSU's ability to rush the passer and Florida's somewhat iffy passing game, I expect the Gators to again rely heavily on the rushing attack to move the ball. Percy Harvin played a huge role in both the 2006 and 2007 games, and there's every reason to expect he'll again be massive part of the offensive gameplan as a runner and a receiver. He'll be especially useful as a hot receiver when FSU defensive coordinator Mickey Andrews dials up one of his blitz packages.
There is one x-factor (cliche alert!) I should mention. FSU's Graham Gano is evidently the Samuel L. Jackson of place kickers. Gano is 21 of 23 on field goals, perfect on anything less than 50 yards and five of seven on anything longer than 50 yards. Bizarre as it is to write this sentence, should the game come down to a field goal, Bobby Bowden has to feel pretty confident in his chances. (Florida's kicker, Jonathan Phillips, is perfect on his field goal attempts but gets used about as often as the condom in a Trekkie's wallet)
But I don't think it'll come down to a field goal. Doak Campbell Stadium is a tough place for the Gators to play, but they've pulled out the last two games they've played in Tallahassee. Florida State will fight ferociously in the early minutes and probably sack Tebow once or twice in the first quarter, but the talent disparity between the two teams is too great.
34-17, Florida.
It's tempting to compare the situation faced by this Florida team to the one surrounding the 2001 squad, Steve Spurrier's last. Both teams played bitter rivals for the last game of the regular season: the 2008 team will face Florida State and the 2001 club played Tennessee in a showdown pushed back from its normal early season date by the September 11 attacks. Both teams were two wins away from a berth in the national championship game. Prolific quarterbacks led both teams (Rex Grossman quarterbacked the 2001 unit) to repeated blowouts. And both teams had those otherwise great seasons ruined by heartbreaking losses to unranked SEC West opponents: Auburn was the early prototype for the 2008 Ole Miss team that haunts Meyer's dreams.
The 2001 team saw its national championship ambitions shattered by the Volunteers; many still argue that upset drove Spurrier to the NFL. As I said, it's tempting to worry about history repeating in 2008.
The one key difference between the two seasons, however, is that the 2001 Tennessee team was actually good. They would go on to lose to LSU in the SEC Championship Game, but the Volunteers came into The Swamp ranked fifth in the country and boasting a 9-1 record. Florida State, by contrast, is 8-3 in the mediocre ACC and doesn't even control its own destiny in the race for the conference championship game.
But it is worth acknowledging that this year's Florida State team is better than the clubs Meyer and the Gators whacked in 2005-07. The Seminoles rank 45th in the nation offensively, a hearty boost from their rankings the last couple years. The defense is revitalized too, if not to the level of those frightening mid-90's units that just kept producing first round defensive linemen and linebackers. The Seminoles rank fourth in the nation in sacks with 3.18 per game. A replay of UF's early season offensive line issues could prove disastrous for the Gators.
I expect the Seminoles to challenge UF's secondary (which, despite all its great work this season, has yet to fully earn my trust); Greg Carr, Preston Parker, Taiwan Easterling, Corey Surrency have all put up respectable numbers and are dangerous in their own ways. Parker is kind of an unemployed Lehman Brothers' analyst's Percy Harvin, and at 6'6, Carr presents serious match-up issues with UF's cornerbacks.
But the Seminoles still don't have a QB on the level of Tim Tebow, which would be fine, except they still don't have a QB on the level of Casey Claussen or Chris Rix. Christian Ponder was elevated to the starting position before the season began, beating out frequent punching bag Drew Weatherford, who frankly was too nice to a guy to deserve playing behind that offensive line four straight seasons. Ponder's a mobile guy and has picked up 390 yards on 106 carries, which is impressive considering the Seminoles are 59th in the nation at preventing sacks. But Ponder is also completing just 56.4 percent of his passes and has just 12 touchdowns against 11 interceptions.
No, the Seminoles are going to try and make their hay running the ball. They rank 28th in the nation in rushing offense, and again, that's a massive improvement from the last several years. Antone Smith is finally living up to a portion of his high school hype, and back-up QB D'Vontrey Richardson has some nice numbers as a runner. The worrisome factor here is the status of Florida's defensive line. Freshman Matt Patchan is out with a knee injury and sophomore Lawrence Marsh is questionable due to a similar ailment. Patchan's loss is mainly a blow to depth, but Marsh is by far the best defensive tackle Florida has. If he's out, or even if he's playing at a fraction of his ability, the Seminoles might be able to find some holes in Florida's patchwork defensive line. That's the match-up to keep an eye on, I suspect.
On the other side, there's not much for Florida to change offensively. Considering FSU's ability to rush the passer and Florida's somewhat iffy passing game, I expect the Gators to again rely heavily on the rushing attack to move the ball. Percy Harvin played a huge role in both the 2006 and 2007 games, and there's every reason to expect he'll again be massive part of the offensive gameplan as a runner and a receiver. He'll be especially useful as a hot receiver when FSU defensive coordinator Mickey Andrews dials up one of his blitz packages.
There is one x-factor (cliche alert!) I should mention. FSU's Graham Gano is evidently the Samuel L. Jackson of place kickers. Gano is 21 of 23 on field goals, perfect on anything less than 50 yards and five of seven on anything longer than 50 yards. Bizarre as it is to write this sentence, should the game come down to a field goal, Bobby Bowden has to feel pretty confident in his chances. (Florida's kicker, Jonathan Phillips, is perfect on his field goal attempts but gets used about as often as the condom in a Trekkie's wallet)
But I don't think it'll come down to a field goal. Doak Campbell Stadium is a tough place for the Gators to play, but they've pulled out the last two games they've played in Tallahassee. Florida State will fight ferociously in the early minutes and probably sack Tebow once or twice in the first quarter, but the talent disparity between the two teams is too great.
34-17, Florida.
Monday, November 24, 2008
Syracuse 89, Florida 83
Turns out losing Marreese Speights didn't help Florida's defense much. Shock of shocks, that.
The Fighting Citrus Fruit repeatedly eviscerated UF's, whether the Gators played man-to-man or a particularly laughable zone. A lot of the credit for that has to go to Syracuse. Jonny Flynn is missing an "h" but not much else; he's a hell of a player. So is Paul Harris. Harris scored 18 points and grabbed 11 rebounds; Flynn scored 18 on five of seven shooting. The rather beastly Arinze Onuaku scored 13 and picked up 12 rebounds. Florida had no answer for him; he absolutely abused the Gators inside.
UF also failed to contain Syracuse sharp-shooter Andy Rautins in the first half; he was five of nine from behind the arc, though he was silent as a mausoleum in the second half.
It was actually a sharp, fun, well-played game. Syracuse's biggest lead was 10 points and they didn't hold that for very long. But the Orange basically won the game when they were able to open up a seven or eight point lead in the second half. The Gators simply couldn't stop Syracuse on consecutive possessions. Mathematics is a cruel mistress; if you fall behind by a couple possessions and can't stop the other guy from scoring, it's pretty darn hard to win.
With 19:02 left in the game, Eric Devendorf hit a three-pointer to make the score 46-40. From that point on the Gators never pulled within three.
It wasn't a complete disaster. Nick Calathes was his usual well-rounded self, scoring 17 on better than 50 percent shooting, dishing seven assists and recording three steals. Freshman guard and mighty mite Erving Walker looked pretty good against some solid competition; he scored 13 points coming off the bench and knocked down three shots from beyond the arc.
The true revelation, however, was Alex Tyus, who scored 24 points on 11 of 14 shooting. It was, by a wide margin, the best game of his college career. A lot of those points came on relatively uncontested put-backs, but he also drained several mid-range jumpshots and showed impressive touch around the basket.
But even Tyus struggled defensively. He only picked up four rebounds and did nothing to discourage Onuaku or Harris in the paint. The Gators didn't prove that they could stop or even contain effective low-post scorers. That's going to be a problem all year.
With the loss, UF fell to 3-1. Tomorrow they'll face the loser of tonight's Kansas/Washington match-up in the consolation game of this little mini-tournament. Beating either one of those teams would keep the Kansas City excursion from being a complete waste. Banking a win against a relatively decent team like Washington or Kansas would be helpful come tournament time, especially considering the quality of the SEC.
(Programming note: I obviously don't plan on recapping every basketball game. There are too many and I don't get to watch most of them. Important, nationally televised games will warrant an entry)
The Fighting Citrus Fruit repeatedly eviscerated UF's, whether the Gators played man-to-man or a particularly laughable zone. A lot of the credit for that has to go to Syracuse. Jonny Flynn is missing an "h" but not much else; he's a hell of a player. So is Paul Harris. Harris scored 18 points and grabbed 11 rebounds; Flynn scored 18 on five of seven shooting. The rather beastly Arinze Onuaku scored 13 and picked up 12 rebounds. Florida had no answer for him; he absolutely abused the Gators inside.
UF also failed to contain Syracuse sharp-shooter Andy Rautins in the first half; he was five of nine from behind the arc, though he was silent as a mausoleum in the second half.
It was actually a sharp, fun, well-played game. Syracuse's biggest lead was 10 points and they didn't hold that for very long. But the Orange basically won the game when they were able to open up a seven or eight point lead in the second half. The Gators simply couldn't stop Syracuse on consecutive possessions. Mathematics is a cruel mistress; if you fall behind by a couple possessions and can't stop the other guy from scoring, it's pretty darn hard to win.
With 19:02 left in the game, Eric Devendorf hit a three-pointer to make the score 46-40. From that point on the Gators never pulled within three.
It wasn't a complete disaster. Nick Calathes was his usual well-rounded self, scoring 17 on better than 50 percent shooting, dishing seven assists and recording three steals. Freshman guard and mighty mite Erving Walker looked pretty good against some solid competition; he scored 13 points coming off the bench and knocked down three shots from beyond the arc.
The true revelation, however, was Alex Tyus, who scored 24 points on 11 of 14 shooting. It was, by a wide margin, the best game of his college career. A lot of those points came on relatively uncontested put-backs, but he also drained several mid-range jumpshots and showed impressive touch around the basket.
But even Tyus struggled defensively. He only picked up four rebounds and did nothing to discourage Onuaku or Harris in the paint. The Gators didn't prove that they could stop or even contain effective low-post scorers. That's going to be a problem all year.
With the loss, UF fell to 3-1. Tomorrow they'll face the loser of tonight's Kansas/Washington match-up in the consolation game of this little mini-tournament. Beating either one of those teams would keep the Kansas City excursion from being a complete waste. Banking a win against a relatively decent team like Washington or Kansas would be helpful come tournament time, especially considering the quality of the SEC.
(Programming note: I obviously don't plan on recapping every basketball game. There are too many and I don't get to watch most of them. Important, nationally televised games will warrant an entry)
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